Hurricane Florence set to hit NC coast tomorrow

[AD5XJ]

By now you should know the how dangerous this storm is. It is no exaggeration to say it is beyond your capability to withstand a direct hit from Florence. Even if you are in a structure that could withstand the CAT 4 or higher winds, the predicted 9-13 feet of water from storm surge will devastate the areas along the coastlines. I have included the 08:00 EDT NWS statement below: Please heed all directions and warnings from you local OEP and FEMA officials.

The attached graphic shows the predicted path of hurricane Florence as of 08:00 AST 12 Sep 2018. These are predictions are much more of a consensus than before. The cone of uncertainty is changing due to other weather factors and now has a sort of "hook" after making landfall. Now it poses a significant danger to inland SC, and GA.

The Governors of  the coastal areas of NC, SC, VA, and MD have all issued mandatory and voluntary evacuation requests for the low-lying areas in those states. Residents in Northern FL should not feel they are safe. Storm surge may be a factor in your area as the storm approaches.

You can see why we said days ago; "Do not wait for the storm to hit the coast (wherever that may be)". Residents in the lowlands of those coastal regions have been requested to evacuate. Before you leave, you should check to be sure you have sufficient food, water, medications, and fuel for a few days at least. Your final destination may not have power or food when you get there, so be prepared. If you need more information on being prepared you can find it here

If you have not yet decided to evacuate, you have very little time left to do so. The coastal regions of NC, SC, and VA may begin to feel tropical force winds as early as tonight.

For those of you who know elderly in your area who may need help, please check on them and make sure they can get help to evacuate.

The SATERN International SSB net will activate:

    Thursday, 13 September 2018 through at least Saturday, 15 September 2018 1200 (Central) / 1700z through 1600 (Central) / 2100z.

The SATERN So. Terr. SSB Net will be active:

    Thursday thru Saturday from 08:00 CST to 12:00 (NOON) unless the traffic or situation require otherwise. We are requesting volunteers in the Southern Territory to assist with activities as alternate NCS and/or relays. Ham operators active in sister organizations that would like to help are welcome to join us on 7.265 Mhz LSB.

The SATERN International Digital Net:

    will monitor the net frequency the same times as the SATERN International SSB net. Volunteers are needed to help with monitoring and relays if needed. Weather reports from the affected area are welcome. Use the FLMSG pre-formatted Weather - Hurricane form to report hazardous weather to the National Hurricane Center. Hazardous weather only (damaging wind, tornadoes, and flooding) measured specifics only please when possible. Reports should be timely and specific to the affected area, no general weather reports.

The Hurricane Watch Net will be active:

    Hurricane Florence is currently a Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The current forecast calls for Florence to make landfall as a Major Hurricane Thursday evening. After landfall, the forward speed of Florence is expected to slow. Isaac is currently a Cat 1 Hurricane and forecast to make landfall late Thursday afternoon on the island of Dominica, the island ravaged last year by Cat 5 Maria.

    We plan to activate the Net on Wednesday, September 12 at 11:00 AM EDT – 1500 UTC on 14.325.00 AND 7.268 MHz. Yes, we will be operating both bands simultaneously. 20-meter propagation is lousy and is all but non-existent. A Class 2 Geomagnetic storm is forecast to begin later today (Monday) which will seriously hamper HF propagation.

The WX4NHC weather EchoLink conference will be active at *WX-TALK*

Having been through several hurricanes personally, let me urge you to follow all advice and instruction from your local OEP or FEMA officials. Do not assume you can ride it out safely.

If you have questions on anything above please feel free to email AD5XJ @ arrl.net

The 08:00 AM EDT NWS bulletin follows:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 70.7W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 70.7 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the northwest is
forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday.
Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into
Friday, and move slowly through early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach
the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is forecast through tonight.
While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast
to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S.
coast. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches
South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to
10 inches, isolated 20 inches
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to
6 inches, isolated 12 inches

This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and
significant river flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday.  Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.