Hurricane Florence now a CAT 4 headed for Atlantic Coast of US

[AD5XJ]

The attached graphic shows the predicted path of hurricane Florence as of 08:00 EST 11 Sep 2018. These are predictions and not actuality. But it is close enough for us to take a very close look at our preparedness. The cone of uncertainty is getting narrower.

The Governors of  the coastal areas of NC, SC, VA, and MD have all issued mandatory and voluntary evacuation requests for the low-lying areas in those states. Residents in Northern FL should not feel they are safe. Storm surge may be a factor in your area as the storm approaches.

Here are some excerpts from the lengthy advisory this morning at 08:00 AST:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
800 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...
...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 64.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United
States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the
North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

...

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 64.6 West.  Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina on Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near
130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. However, Florence is still a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Re-strengthening is forecast to occur during the next day or so, and
Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane
through Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet...2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear...4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River...6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maxima to 30 inches
near Florence's track over portions of North Carolina, Virginia, and
northern South Carolina through Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.

 

You can see why we said yesterday; "Do not wait for the storm to hit the coast (wherever that may be)". Residents in the lowlands of those coastal regions have been requested to evacuate. Before you leave, you should check to be sure you have sufficient food, water, medications, and fuel for a few days at least. Your final destination may not have power or food when you get there, so be prepared. If you need more information on being prepared you can find it here

A few of you in the inland regions may decided to stay. Be sure your standby power units have been checked and made ready now. Pets should be made ready for transport or an indoor stay.

For those of you who know elderly in your area who may need help, please check on them and make sure they can evacuate quickly if needed.

At this time SATERN So. Terr. is planning to be monitoring at Delta II Thursday. We may elevate to a higher status on Friday, but for now that is the plan.

This does not mean any ham should stay in an area threatened by the storm. It is predicted to be at least a Cat. 4 as it reaches shore in the US.

The SATERN International SSB net will activate:

    Thursday, 13 September 2018 through at least Saturday, 15 September 2018 1200 (Central) / 1700z through 1600 (Central) / 2100z.

The SATERN So. Terr. SSB Net will be active:

    Thursday thru Saturday from 08:00 CST to 12:00 (NOON) unless the traffic or situation require otherwise. We are requesting volunteers in the Southern Territory to assist with activities as alternate NCS and/or relays. Ham operators active in sister organizations that would like to help are welcome to join us on 7.265 Mhz LSB.

The SATERN International Digital Net:

    will monitor the net frequency the same times as the SATERN International SSB net. Volunteers are needed to help with monitoring and relays if needed. Weather reports from the affected area are welcome. Use the FLMSG pre-formatted Weather - Hurricane form to report hazardous weather to the National Hurricane Center. Hazardous weather only (damaging wind, tornadoes, and flooding) measured specifics only please when possible. Reports should be timely and specific to the affected area, no general weather reports.

The Hurricane Watch Net will be active:

    Hurricane Florence is currently a Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The current forecast calls for Florence to make landfall as a Major Hurricane Thursday evening. After landfall, the forward speed of Florence is expected to slow. Isaac is currently a Cat 1 Hurricane and forecast to make landfall late Thursday afternoon on the island of Dominica, the island ravaged last year by Cat 5 Maria.

    We plan to activate the Net on Wednesday, September 12 at 11:00 AM EDT – 1500 UTC on 14.325.00 AND 7.268 MHz. Yes, we will be operating both bands simultaneously. 20-meter propagation is lousy and is all but non-existent. A Class 2 Geomagnetic storm is forecast to begin later today (Monday) which will seriously hamper HF propagation.

The WX4NHC weather EchoLink conference will be active at *WX-TALK*

Having been through several hurricanes, let me urge you to follow all advice and instruction from your local OEP or FEMA officials. Do not assume you can ride it out safely.

If you have questions on anything above please feel free to email AD5XJ @ arrl.net