Hurricane Michael Now CAT 4 storm making landfall
SATERN International SSB Group
Greetings and Salutations:
SATERN Update:
Hurricane Michael: National SATERN Liaison and Southern Territory SATERN Coordinator Bill Feist (WB8BZH),
has announced that the Southern Territory SATERN SSB Net will be activated on 7.265 MHz beginning Wednesday,
10 October 2018 at 0800 (Central). The Net will continue to operate until 2000 / 8:00 PM CT that day. If
required, the Net will resume operations on Thursday, 11 October 2018.
Frequent announcements will be made during the regular Training / Fellowship Net for the International SATERN SSB Net on 14.268 MHz to encourage SATERN volunteers and other Amateur Radio operators that can hear Net Control WB5ALM in Jackson, MS, to help as Net Control and Net Relay Stations. Those interested should contact Net Control on-the-air or by email to the Net Manager, Ken Standard (AD5XJ) at AD...@ARRL.net. Stations in the Florida panhandle, Northern Florida peninsula, Southeastern Alabama and Southern Georgia are especially requested to participate and provide on-scene reports to Net Control.
This decision was made based on:
Hurricane Michael meets the criteria for SATERN activation of a landfalling major (category 3, 4 or 5)
hurricane within that Net’s coverage area.
Discussion with the Net Managers for the Southern Territory and International SATERN Nets.
The purpose of the Net activation is to:
- Handle Emergency, Priority and Health & Welfare messages from the impacted areas.
- Provide ground-truth information provided by amateur radio stations and other sources in the impacted areas to be forwarded to Salvation Army leadership.
- Support the Southern Territory and the impacted Divisions and local Salvation Army units as requested.
All questions about this Net activation should be addressed to both myself and the Net Manager, Ken Standard (AD5XJ) at AD...@ARRL.net.
Situation Report:
[Shown on this page] is the 4:00 AM (Wednesday, 10 October 2018) slide briefing from
NWS-Mobile / Pensacola Tropical Weather Briefing for Hurricane Michael. Overnight
Michael has grown to CAT 4 winds and is expected to make landfall as CAT 4.
This adds another layer of urgency to the situation as winds of this scale will cause
damage and flooding.
The latest advisory has shifted the forecast track back to the east. Concern has not changed for our Southeastern counties due to this most recent advisory. Any additional Westward shifts could result in a significant impact to our Southeastern counties, and a Tropical Storm Watch could become necessary for other counties. Currently we expect rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts and wind gusts of over 100+ mph, mainly along and South of Interstate 85 on Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Here are the important points from the National Hurricane Center’s text discussions and forecasts:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MICHAEL STRENGTHENS
FURTHER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from South Santee River,
South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.
The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast
expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at
a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over
the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the
southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off
the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220
km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
United States.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of
63 mph (101 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin during the next few hours. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area during the next several hours, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight,
and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday
night.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.
The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the
Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this
afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern
Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.
Governor Kay Ivey has issued a State of Emergency for Alabama. The Alabama State EOC is
activating to a Level II beginning today, Tuesday, 09 October 2018, at 0700. Tabatha
Glassburn has agreed to staff our desk. I have already gotten Suzzette Bogan’s approval
for this. Suzzette also recommended Cynthia Smith (Walker County) as a backup or a second person if needed.
Louisiana still has a State of Emergency in effect, but they have stood down the conference
calls UNLESS the storm continues to track westward. It is unlikely, though, that they
will activate their EOC beyond a Crisis Action Team – if that much.
Partner Updates:
I have been referred to you by ARRL Emergency Preparedness Manager Mike Corey (KI1U) for some assistance.
I was contacted Tuesday evening by The Salvaiton Army’s Southern
Territory Disaster Services Coordinator,
Jeff Jellets, on behalf of the Florida Divison Emergency Disaster
Service Director, Steven Hartsook with the following request:
Now that it appears that Hurricane Michael may make landfall at or near a catgegory 4 hurricane, there is increased
concern about the viability of land line, cellular and Internet communications in those areas about to be impacted.
I have been asked to see if you would be able to do the following:
Kevin & Karl (NFL Section): To provide one or 2 amateur radio opertors each (General Clas or higher) in the cities
of Pensacola, Panama City, and Tallahassee to set up a temporary amateur radio station at our local Corps
(churches / community centers) in those cities. Their purpose would be to provide communications between themselves
and, more importantly, between those local Corps and our Area Command Team at the Divisional Emergency Disaster
Services Center / Warehouse in Tampa. The points of contact for those three local units are:
Pensacola Corps - Captain Herb Frazier III
1501 North Q Street, Pensacola, FL 32401
Phone: (407) 973-4628
Email: Herbert.F...@USS.SalvationArmy.org
Panama City Corps – Major Otis Childs
1824 W. 15th Street, Panama City, FL 32401
Phone: (850) 625-9887
Email: Otis....@USS.SalvationArmy.org
Tallahasse Corps – Lt. Ryan Meo
2410 Allen Road – Tallahassee, FL 32312
Phone: (727) 600-2240
Email: Ryan...@USS.SalvationArmy.org
Darrell / Ben (WCFL Section): To provide one or 2 amateur radio operators from the Tampa area that would be
able to set up an amateur radio station at our Florida Disaster Warehouse in the Tampa area for the purpose of
providing it with communication with the three local units listed in #1 above. The Disaster Services Center /
Warehoue is located at:
930 E. 139th Avenue – Tampa, FL 33613
POC: Jerry Stickney
Phone: (727) 403-7025
Email: Jerry.S...@USS.SalvationArmy.org
If possible, the goal is to put your operators in contact with our Corps Officers (pastors / leaders) in those three communities and with Divisional EDS Director Steven Hartsook in Tampa tomorrow morning to work out the details and then to begin operations as soon as it is safe to do so.
The operators would have to provide their own equipment and antennas as none or our facilities have amateur radio stations.
I would assume that communications would be via HF as opposed to VHF / UHF, hence the request for operators with
a General (or higher) class of license.
In addition, beginning at 0800 CT / 0900 ET, the Salvation Army
Team Emergency Radio Netowrk (SATERN) will be
activating its Southern Territory SATERN Net on 7.265 MHz for
Hurricane Michael and would be available to assist
you with any inter-state communications needs you might have for
Emergency, Priority or Health & Welfare messages
whether in support of The Salvation Army or in support of those
communities in Florida being impacted by Hurricane Michael.
Please contact [Bill Feist, WB8BZH] as soon as possible concerning this. Feel free to contact [Bill] by cell phone at any time. It is on 24/7 and after 24 years of being in The Salvation Army Emergency Disaster Services, I am used to O-Dark-Thirty phone calls (grin).
The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, will be activated on
Wednesday, 10 October 2018 at 0900 (Eastern) and will continue to operate until landfall
at approximately 2300 (Eastern) that same day. WX4NHC will be monitoring the Hurricane
Watch Net (HWN) on both 14.325 MHz and 7.268 MHz. It will also be monitoring the VoIP
Hurricane Net on EchoLink Conference *WX-Talk*, node 7203 or IRLP 9219. Operational contact
information can be found online at the WX4NHC wetsite.
The VoIP Hurricane Net will likely activate sometime between 0400 and 0500 ET on Wednesday, 10 October 2018.
The Hurricane Watch Net tentatively plans to activate on Tuesday, 09 October 2018 at 1700
(Eastern) / 5:00 PM (Eastern) / 2100 UTC on both 14.325 MHz and 7.268 MHz. HWN will operate
on 14.325 for as long as propagation allows and will suspend operations on 7.268 MHz at 2300
(Eastern) / 11:00 PM (Eastern) / 0300 UTC. Net operations will resume Wednesday morning at
0830 (Eastern) / 8:30 AM Eastern / 1230 UTC (using both 14.325 MHz and 7.268 MHz) or as soon
as the Waterway Net concludes their operations. Once activated on Wednesday, they will remain
in operation until further notice. Additional information can be found at www.hwn.org.
Conclusion:
This and additional information is available on SATERN.org.
As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to contact me.
