Tropical Storm 14 may enter the Gulf

[AD5XJ]

I received this from Bill Feist, WB89BZH yesterday:

TO:    National SATERN Committee

 

CC:    Major Mike McKee, Assistant Director Salvation Army World Services Organziation (SAWSO)

Mike Corey (KI1U), Emergency Preparedness Manager, American Radio Relay League

          Rob Macedo (KD1CY), Net Manager, VoIP Hurricane Net

          Bobby Graves (KD5HAV), Net Manager, Hurricane Watch Net

          Julio Ripoll (WD4R), Assistant Manager, WX4HNC

 

 

Greetings and Salutations:

 

And so it begins once again . . .

 

Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 is now Tropical Depression 14 as of 0400 this morning with winds at 35 mph moving NNW at 3 mph.  Its speed is expected to increase through Wednesday.

 

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are being posted FOR western Cuba and the east coast of Mexico.  Western Cuba is expected to get 3 to 7 inches of rainfall.  The Yucatan Peninsual, Belize and northern Honduras  is expected to get 2 to 4 inches of rain through Tuesday.

 

Outer rainbands are expected to prdocue total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Monday.

 

Tropical Depression 14 / Tropical Storm Michael may become Hurricane Michael by 0100 on Wednesday, 10 October 2018.

 

The current track has this storm making landfall somewhere along the Mississippi / Alabamam border or the Florida panhandle, most likely as a category 1 Hurricane. 

 

The latest spaghetti models show that there has been movement in the predicted track to the West and both the Mississippi and the Alabama Gulf Coast are now within those model predictions, along with the Florida Panhandle:

The Weather Channel is predicting the following:

 

1. Timing: Landfall is most likely to occur somewhere between the Mississippi/Alabama border and the Florida Panhandle Wednesday into Wednesday night. Depending on how quickly this system moves northward, the center of future Michael could approach the Gulf Coast as soon as late Tuesday. After landfall, this system will then move farther inland across the Southeast U.S. into late week.

 

1. Intensity: The National Hurricane Center is forecasting this system to be a Category 1 hurricane when it makes landfall.

 

1. Wind: Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are most likely to arrive on the U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday, particularly from southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle. Winds of that strength could arrive as soon as Tuesday, however. Hurricane strength winds (74-plus mph) are possible in a smaller area near where the center moves inland.

 

1. Storm Surge: Storm surge flooding could occur along the immediate coastline near and east of where the center makes landfall. The amount of storm surge inundation will depend on how strong this system becomes.

 

1. Rainfall: Heavy rain is likely to spread inland from the Gulf Coast midweek to other parts of the Southeast into late week. Some of this heavy rain could affect parts of the Carolinas that were devastated by flooding from Hurricane Florence. That said, this system is unlikely to stall like Florence did and will therefore not bring extreme rainfall amounts.

 

Because (potential) Michael is not currently predicted to become a major (category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane at landfall, there are no plans to activate the Interntioanl or Southern Territory SATERN Nets at this time.  However, If (potential) Michael becomes a hurricane and is predicted (as it is now) to make landfall as a hurricane, then I would anticipate that the Hurricane Watch Net and VoiIP Hurricane Net will be activated.  SATERN operators will be encouraged to support both of these partner nets if they are activated.

 

There is also information below about Hurricane Sergio in the Eastern Pacific.  Although it is currently a major (category 3) hurricane in the Eastern Pacific, it is predicted to make landfall as a Tropical Storm on the Baja Peninsual and then move inland across the SW United States.  Again, there are no plans to activate the International SATERN Net at this time for this storm because it does not meet the criterial for activation (landfall of a major hurricane).  It will be up to the Western Territory SATERN Coordinator to determine whehter it is appropriate to activate the Western Territory SATERN Net.

 

For both storms, it is possible that local VHF / UHF SATERN Nets might be activated to support their local Salvation Army units in response to any wind or flood damage caused by these two storms.

 

Finally, I seem to remember someone predicting a more-or-less quiet year this year at the beginning of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  That wasn't me, was it?  So much for my future career as a weatherman!  ☹

 

I'll keep you all updated as things progress.

update de AD5XJ