Asset Allocation- 2 week Time Horizon 2/20 (sanguine-strategy@googlegroups.com)

[Phil Matta (Google Docs)]

I've shared Asset Allocation- 2 week Time Horizon 2/20

Message from matta....@gmail.com:

Hey guys here is our allocation for the next two weeks.  Let me know if you have any questions/comments.

Phil

Click to open:

• Asset Allocation- 2 week Time Horizon 2/20

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[Nayab Khan]

This looks great. Trent, can you please execute all these trades?



On Feb 20, 10:17 pm, "Phil Matta (Google Docs)"
<matta.phi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I've shared an item with you:
>
> Asset Allocation- 2 week Time Horizon 2/20https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtVw3T3XIA7ldEd4OUkwdVRf...
>
> It's not an attachment -- it's stored online at Google Docs. To open this
> document, just click the link above.

[Chris Kuntarich]

I agree, but is everyone ready to live and die by how gold does for
the next two weeks? Crude responded the best to the debt deal, and is
up 2% on the day. Can we leave atleast 100k in there and take it from
IAU, my expected return was obviously wrong for this one as I did not
see a deal being reached last night.

-Chris

[Phil Matta]

I agree.  Crude is going to continue to go up I think for the next 3-4 weeks.  My suggestion would be to keep our portfolio weighted the way the asset allocation program has suggested but only invest, say 75% of our total funds in the portfolio.  Then we can throw the other 5, 10, 15, 25 % in crude.  

I think we should let our portfolio play out for the next 2 weeks or so and learn from what our estimates were for both return and STD and what they actually were over that time period.  If we continually change our portfolio without looking at how our predictions fared I think we are shortchanging our learning process.

--
Phil Matta
matta....@gmail.com

[Chris Kuntarich]

So do we want to steer clear of gold and let our only exposure to it
be through the little bit that makes up GSC? Or are you saying that we
should allocate 75% of the portfolio using the program including gold
and letting the remaining 25% stay in IXC?

On Feb 21, 12:00 pm, Phil Matta <matta.phi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I agree.  Crude is going to continue to go up I think for the next 3-4
> weeks.  My suggestion would be to keep our portfolio weighted the way the
> asset allocation program has suggested but only invest, say 75% of our
> total funds in the portfolio.  Then we can throw the other 5, 10, 15, 25 %
> in crude.
>
> I think we should let our portfolio play out for the next 2 weeks or so and
> learn from what our estimates were for both return and STD and what they
> actually were over that time period.  If we continually change our
> portfolio without looking at how our predictions fared I think we are
> shortchanging our learning process.
>

> On Tue, Feb 21, 2012 at 11:12 AM, Chris Kuntarich <ckuntar...@gmail.com>wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > I agree, but is everyone ready to live and die by how gold does for
> > the next two weeks? Crude responded the best to the debt deal, and is
> > up 2% on the day. Can we leave atleast 100k in there and take it from
> > IAU, my expected return was obviously wrong for this one as I did not
> > see a deal being reached last night.
>
> > -Chris
>
> > On Feb 21, 11:00 am, Nayab Khan <nhkha...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > This looks great. Trent, can you please execute all these trades?
>
> > > On Feb 20, 10:17 pm, "Phil Matta (Google Docs)"
>
> > > <matta.phi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > > I've shared an item with you:
>
> > > > Asset Allocation- 2 week Time Horizon 2/20
> >https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtVw3T3XIA7ldEd4OUkwdVRf...
>
> > > > It's not an attachment -- it's stored online at Google Docs. To open
> > this
> > > > document, just click the link above.
>
> > > > Hey guys here is our allocation for the next two weeks.  Let me know
> > if you
> > > > have any questions/comments.
>
> > > > Phil
>
> --
> Phil Matta

> matta.phi...@gmail.com

[Phil Matta]

The latter.

75% (not a firm number just tossing it out there) of our assets should be allocated the way the portfolio allocation program suggests.  The remaining can be 'loose'.  What I mean by that is if we feel really bullish on crude for a couple days, we go bigger on crude.  If we feel bullish on gold or financials, we divest out of crude and go into gold and financials.  

This way we don't compromise our portfolio, it remains intact at 75% percent of our assets, but still allow ourselves the ability to leverage up on the ETF's we feel may outperform our initial predictions.

Does that make sense?

Phil

--
Phil Matta
matta....@gmail.com

[Chris Kuntarich]

Yup exactly what I was thinking. You think you will have time to
rerun the allocations before the bell today?

On Feb 21, 12:29 pm, Phil Matta <matta.phi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> The latter.
>
> 75% (not a firm number just tossing it out there) of our assets should be
> allocated the way the portfolio allocation program suggests.  The remaining
> can be 'loose'.  What I mean by that is if we feel really bullish on crude
> for a couple days, we go bigger on crude.  If we feel bullish on gold or
> financials, we divest out of crude and go into gold and financials.
>
> This way we don't compromise our portfolio, it remains intact at 75%
> percent of our assets, but still allow ourselves the ability to leverage up
> on the ETF's we feel may outperform our initial predictions.
>
> Does that make sense?
>
> Phil
>

> matta.phi...@gmail.com

[Phil Matta]

Sure, do you have any updates on your expected returns?

--
Phil Matta
matta....@gmail.com

[Chris Kuntarich]

2.8% for IXC and 2.1% for GSC. GSC is 70% energy so these two should
have a very strong correlation. So if you want to limit how much we
expose the overall portfolio to crude feel free to bring that return
down, but if you feel that is just limiting ourselves for no reason,
feel free to put that in and see what we get.

On Feb 21, 1:32 pm, Phil Matta <matta.phi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Sure, do you have any updates on your expected returns?
>

> matta.phi...@gmail.com

[Phil Matta]

Done.

Changes aren't that great overall but take a look (updated document).  Chris as long as you feel good about this and anyone else with an opinon does too, I suggest that we execute these trades at 85% of our total holdings.  

The remaining 10-15% can be our discretionary account.  If we feel extra bullish on one of our ETF's in our portfolio or see something outside the portfolio that might be a good option than we use this money to pull the trigger and invest short term.  Maybe a couple of days or longer depending on how the discretionary account is performing. 

So our holdings should be as follows:

1. Portfolio Account:   85% of our holdings invested as per document 'Asset Allocation - 2 Week Time Horizon 2/21' using the weights revised column for weights on individual ETFs. 
2. Discretionary Account:   The remaining 10-15% should be up for debate on how to invest

On that note I have been noticing that a lot of India ETF's are blowing up recently.  Over the last week SMIN (small cap India fund) is up 7.8%, INDY which is another India based ETF is up 5.14% over the last week, INDA which is another India based index fund is up just under 5%.  Not sure what the implications or the underpinning of these movements are, but this 10-15% reserve cash we have could be a potential good trade play for a few days if we keep our eyes on it.  So I'm suggesting a 10% holding in SMIN, INDY or INDA.  INDY would probably get my money because it is vastly outperforming its Beta value right now.

Phil

--
Phil Matta
matta....@gmail.com

[Chris Kuntarich]

Looks like we missed the boat on IAU today... Up 1.9% as of now.

[Phil Matta]

Yeah I saw that this morning.  Crushed my heart.  Lets execute our portfolio ASAP.

--
Phil Matta
matta....@gmail.com

[Nayab Khan]

Just did all the trades. Fingers crossed.

On Feb 21, 1:07 pm, Phil Matta <matta.phi...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Yeah I saw that this morning.  Crushed my heart.  Lets execute our
> portfolio ASAP.
>

> matta.phi...@gmail.com