US-China in a new, intense tug-of-war for Cambodia
samlot chit
US-China in a new, intense tug-of-war for Cambodia
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet at a meeting in Phnom Penh. Image: X ScreengrabPHNOM PENH – On June 4, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Cambodia in what was widely touted as a “historic” trip, the first by a Pentagon chief on a bilateral basis.
During the visit, Austin met with Cambodia’s Senate President Hun Sen, Prime Minister Hun Manet and Defense Minister Tea Seiha, with discussions reportedly focused on bilateral defense relations.
That’s raised certain hopes of a diplomatic and strategic reset after a period of downgraded and sometimes acrimonious ties.
The high-level talks addressed a possible resumption of the suspended Angkor Sentinel joint military exercises, a potential Cambodian role in United Nations peacekeeping operations and renewed Cambodian access to US military-run professional education programs.
At the same time, Austin also expressed apprehension that Cambodia was moving closer to China. The US is particularly concerned that Cambodia might allow China to use its Ream Naval Base opening onto the Gulf of Thailand.
That would conceivably give Beijing a strategic outpost and key southern flank on the contested South China Sea. These American concerns have been repeated and amplified despite Cambodia’s consistent denial of any such “secret” base pact.
Austin arrived just after Cambodia concluded its annual Golden Dragon joint military exercises with China, held this year between May 16 and May 31.
This year’s robust drills saw the participation of 2,000-plus Cambodian and Chinese military personnel, 11 Cambodian ships and three Chinese warships, and included live-fire exercises focused on anti-hijacking and anti-terrorism in the sea near Cambodia’s Sihanoukville Port.
Chinese and Cambodian forces during last year’s Golden Dragon drills. Image: X ScreengrabThe Golden Dragon exercises first started in 2016, soon after Cambodia suspended its annual Angkor Sentinel drills with the US after launching them in 2010.
Growing China-Cambodia military ties – and their implication for the region’s strategic and maritime balance – certainly factored in Austin’s decision to visit Cambodia and bid to revive the two sides’ moribund defense relations.
But the US defense chief might have also sensed an opportunity under the new Cambodian government led by Hun Manet, a Westpoint and New York University graduate.
Indeed, there are signs of intensifying China-US jockeying for position. On the same day of Austin’s visit, China announced the appointment of its new ambassador after the incumbent had served his mandated term.
Wang Wenbin, China’s former Foreign Ministry spokesman and one of its so-called “wolf-warrior” diplomats, was assigned as ambassador-designate to Cambodia, according to a China Daily report. The announcement was no doubt strategically timed and clearly showed Beijing’s bid to blunt the impact of Austin’s “historic” visit and outreach to Hun Manet’s new government.
These developments can be interpreted in two ways. First and foremost, China and the US are beefing up their diplomatic games in Cambodia as part of their escalating global rivalry for economic and diplomatic influence and power.
The second and perhaps more granular interpretation is that the US and China have been closely observing the new Cambodian administration for about a year and after digesting its messaging and signaling have both decided now is the opportune time to act.
Since coming to power last year, Hun Manet has openly sought to “diversify” Cambodia’s foreign relations by touring many Western countries under his Pentagonal Strategy’s “independent, rule-based and smart” foreign policy mantra. The “rule-based” component of the strategy is a clear nod to the US and West.
Some domestic observers have also noted Hun Manet has shied from the frequent anti-American and anti-Western rhetoric often intoned by his father, former long-time prime minister Hun Sen.
Hun Manet is perceived to be taking a more nuanced diplomatic approach, one that seeks to maximize economic benefits from as many foreign partners as possible.
Hun Sen at Hun Manet’s graduation ceremony at West Point in a file photo. Image: FacebookThat could mean Hun Manet is delicately seeking to rebalance his country’s China and US relations, which in recent years have swung decidedly toward Beijing and away from Washington. China is currently Cambodia’s main development partner, largest investor, biggest creditor and main supplier of military equipment.
But Beijing may have sensed the change in tone under Hun Manet and is preparing for a tougher tug-of-war with the US for influence in Cambodia. The shift would explain Austin’s probing visit and China’s appointment of a prominent new ambassador to Phnom Penh.
And the upshot could be a more independent and diplomatically balanced Cambodia under Hun Manet’s rule.