Fwd: Cambodia's planned canal isn't in its own interest, only China's

[samlot chit]

Nikkei Asia

May 23, 2024

CAMBODIA'S PLANNED CANAL ISN'T IN ITS OWN INTEREST, ONLY CHINA'S

By Sam Rainsy

Plans for a 180-kilometer canal to connect Phnom Penh with the Cambodian coast should be put on hold pending an independent review of the project's rationale and environmental impact.

Currently, state-owned China Bridge and Road Corp. is on track to begin construction of the Funan Techo canal later this year, with the $1.7 billion project scheduled for completion by 2028.

Senior Cambodian officials say the canal will support the country's critical garment industry and other export sectors by speeding up shipments of cargo from the capital area. Much of this traffic now travels down the Mekong River to the South China Sea via Vietnamese ports.

"If [we] don't dig a canal, we'll still depend on others to 'breathe,'" Senate President Hun Sen, previously prime minister, said last month, adding that the new waterway would also boost farmland irrigation.

Yet neither trade nor agriculture appear to be the real reason Hun Sen and his son and successor Prime Minister Hun Manet are pursuing the project.

Significantly, the mouth of the canal lies about 70 kilometers east of Ream Naval Base, which appears to have become a de facto outpost of the Chinese navy. Analysis of satellite imagery by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington has indicated that two Chinese warships have been effectively stationed at Ream since early December.

The Cambodian government has consistently denied that China is making military use of the base. This is likely because the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements that officially ended fighting between Hun Sen's Vietnamese-installed government and other Cambodian factions bars the stationing of foreign military personnel in the country. China was one of many international signatories to the agreements.

Some Western analysts believe Beijing is pushing for the canal, which will have a width of up to 100 meters and a depth of 5.4 meters, for potential use by its navy to attack Vietnam from a new direction in the event of conflict.

The canal could also potentially give Beijing a direct outlet to the sea from southern Yunnan province via Laos. With further development to bypass waterfalls and make the Mekong more navigable through Laos and Cambodia, Chinese ships may be able to sail all the way to the Gulf of Thailand.

A Chinese warship at Ream Naval Base on March 20: The base is about 70 km from the mouth of the planned canal. (Photo obtained by Nikkei)

Unlike with many Chinese infrastructure projects in the developing world, Cambodia will not be bearing the cost or taking on debt for Funan Techo as it is to be built on a "build-operate-transfer" basis, with the Chinese contractor retaining control for 50 years.

In the meantime, however, the potential environmental impact of the canal has not been assessed in any kind of open or transparent way.

Vietnam has already raised concerns that the canal would disrupt the Mekong River system, particularly water flows from Cambodia to Vietnam. Researchers at the Stimson Center, another Washington think tank, say the canal will disrupt wet season flooding and damage wetlands, affecting both agriculture and the ecology of the Mekong basin.

The radical redistribution of available water resources would increase the risk of renewed conflict in Indochina. Hun Sen, though, has refused to negotiate with Vietnam on the issue, stating simply that he has never made a wrong decision in 47 years.

Along the same lines, Cambodia seems to be trying to evade review of the project by the Mekong River Commission, a regional coordinating body. Phnom Penh has told the commission the project will be limited to a tributary of the Mekong and will not have wider impact, but the commission has requested more information.

The Cambodian people themselves have had no say whatsoever in the project so far. Opposition parties have been dismantled under the Hun family regime and cannot play any direct part in scrutinizing plans for the canal.

This massive project was decided hastily and irresponsibly by the Cambodian government at the request of China, which is funding it. The canal will be of limited economic benefit for Cambodians outside of the regime.

There is, above all, no need to rush into a project of this scale, given the wide-ranging repercussions it could have for the region. It is essential now that the government delay further work until an independent review can assess the merits and problems with the Funan Techo plan.

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Sam Rainsy is co-founder and acting leader from exile of the Cambodia National Rescue Party. He previously served as the country's finance minister.