Buzzword funds don't do investors any good

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Harish Ramachandran

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Dec 24, 2014, 12:41:35 AM12/24/14
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From: "Harish Ramachandran" <Harish.Ra...@uti.co.in>
Date: 24-Dec-2014 10:50 AM
Subject: Buzzword funds don’t do investors any good
To: "Harish Ramachandran" <hari...@gmail.com>
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Buzzword funds don’t do investors any good
December 22, 2014, 6:07 AM IST Economic Times in ET Commentary |  IndiaMarkets  | ET
By Dhirendra Kumar
Make in India appears to be the latest theme on which equity funds might be launched. Do such funds make sense for investors? Last week, I saw this headline of a news story ‘Domestic mutual funds launch schemes to support PM Narendra Modi’s ‘Make in India’ campaign’. That’s amazing, no? What a patriotic thing to do. When I saw the headline, I assumed that it meant that the employees of said mutual funds would leave their jobs and set up factories, or something of the sort. However, the article was actually something different.
After reading the article, I thought that a more appropriate headline would be ‘Mutual Funds to exploit Make in India publicity to create and sell more funds that no one should invest in’. My opinion of this professed determination of mutual funds to help Narendra Modi has nothing to do with the Make in India idea by itself. I completely agree that India needs a manufacturing revolution, and that the government needs to act in a focussed manner to remove the obstacles that have held back (and indeed, destroyed) Indian manufacturing for decades.
However, that has utterly nothing to do with whether an equity fund investor should invest in a mutual fund that limits itself to manufacturing, or even emphasise it. If some listed manufacturing companies are going to be good investments, then there is nothing to stop any competent fund manager to invest in them through diversified equity funds. After all, that’s the whole logic of diversified funds — to move investors’ money in and out of various industries, sectors or stocks based on whatever is best for investors.
No one is stopping a fund manager from investing in a manufacturing company in a diversified equity fund. One unalterable truth of mutual fund investing is that no investor should invest in any sectoral or thematic fund.At any given point, some sector, or group of sectors is always doing better than the stock markets in general. That’s in the nature of markets. Therefore, some set of sector-specific funds are always doing better than others.
Over the last many years, the favoured sector has rotated through technology, autos, infrastructure, FMCG and perhaps some others, too. In its day, each of these was doing better than diversified equity funds. This is not a coincidence but almost a mathematical certainty.
Since diversified funds invest in a number of sectors, their performance is always a weighted average of those different sectors. Therefore, the best of those sectors are individually always doing better than diversified funds. Therefore, if you look at mutual fund performance at any point of time, it always looks foolish to have invested in diversified funds rather than the X sector. However, it’s only when you take a long period into account, you realise that the identity of X keeps changing in unpredictable ways. There are plenty of former fans of technology and infrastructure funds who will vouch for this. However, what this does is to make it easy to promote the idea that the right way for fund investors to choose a fund is to identify which sectoral or thematic fund to invest in at the moment. But there can only be so many sectoral funds. Which is where these vague thematic funds come in, generally based on any idea that can give the marketing people a handle. In the past we’ve seen liberalisation funds, globalisation funds, ‘young consumers’ funds, and many more. Now, it seems to be the turn of Make in India.
In fact, a hyperactive government can generate many more ideas than a moribund one can. We might see also some Swachh Bharat funds, who knows even some GST funds. Investors should steer clear of these idea-of-the-month investments. India’s manufacturing story has come at a difficult time when not just the business and economics but many of the fundamental technological underpinnings of how things are made play a role in it. To understand how deep this change will be, just Google for the news story ‘NASA emails wrench to International Space Station’!

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