Trump's (and Netanyahu's) War on Iran: Its Consequences

[Sukla Sen]

Even a quick and cursory reading of the analytical report below brings out the following main points when all the relevant dots -- provided here and also available elsewhere -- are connected:

AA. This grossly illegal war on Iran has been launched by Trump -- understandably to a large extent goaded by Netanyahu (ref: <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/rubio-claim-of-israeli-role-in-us-iran-attack-reverberates-despite-denial> for a roundabout admission) for his own reasons.

Presumably: (i) to escape the fallout of the horrendous Epstein File revelations, (ii) to radically redraw the world map in America's favour in terms of political and economic dominance -- hitting the erstwhile allies very hard and via limited deals with major rival bullies -- and (iii) to establish a stranglehold over much of pretty lucrative, and of great strategic significance, global oil reserves.

Without adequate forethought and planning.

As is very much his wont.

BB. As the outcome, virtually everybody is suffering. Even Israel. It's also taking Iranian/Hezbollah hits.

The only exception, at least on the immediate term, appears to be Russia (ref.: <https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/us/politics/trump-russia-oil-sanctions.html>). The rise in oil price caused by the sharp fall in supply is significantly benefiting it. It has thus come also as a great opportunity to put a squeeze on Europe. And, most significantly, inflow of resources for Ukraine -- for an effective pushback -- are going to dry up with, maybe grave, consequences.

CC. The global economic order is now faced with a looming destabilising crisis that may turn out to be the most serious in decades.

DD. America itself is very much going to feel the tremor of the quake.

Never mind that it is being fought from under the banner of "Make America Great Again!"

EE. As the immediate consequence of the horrifying attack, the domestic resistance against the brutal Mullahcracy in Iran appears to have largely evaporated.

FF. Despite all the massive hits, and contrary to the incoherent claims made by Trump, the Iranian regime is proving that it's far from an easy pushover (ref.: <https://shrts.in/oztai3um6t>). Quite unlike Saddam Hussein (or, for that matter, Nicolas Maduro).

Religious fanaticism appears to be capable of acting, at least on occasions, as a much stronger glue than its various other competitors.

GG. Globally the crisis is most likely going to prove quite unsettling.

HH. The possibility of a WW III, right at this moment, looks, however, somewhat remote.

Quite revealingly, Russia and China both abstained from, and not vetoed against, the UN Security Council Resolution 2817 (2026), adopted on March 11 2026, by a 13-0 vote with two abstentions, condemning Iran's attacks on Gulf states and Jordan without any mention of US or Israeli actions. (Ref.: <https://press.un.org/en/2026/sc16315.doc.htm>.)

That's, undoubtedly, a very important takeaway.

II. It also exposes the sheer absurdity of the claim by a section of the Left that Trump is the personification of a planned(!) drive by "global capital" to restructure the global order.

In this context, it bears mentioning, a section of the American Left had projected Donald Trump as the Peace Candidate"(!) during his debut presidential campaign.

[The above note is a sequel to and complemens: US-Israeli War on Iran: A Brief Round-up, March 2 2026, at <https://groups.google.com/g/greenyouth/c/ouJScQMS2CY>.]

<https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/world/europe/trump-iran-war-global-impact.html>

How Trump’s War With Iran Changed the World in a Week

The conflict is reshaping travel patterns, energy dependencies, living costs, trade routes and diplomatic alliances.

Listen · 6:59 min

Two people in blue jackets stand on a street, one pointing up, with a plume of black smoke in the background. Charred vehicles are also behind them.

Smoke rising from oil storage in Tehran on Sunday.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

By Jim Tankersley

Reporting from Berlin, Washington and London’s Heathrow Airport

March 11, 2026 Updated 4:30 p.m. ET

Trump’s war with Iran sends shockwaves through global economy and security

From soaring oil prices and disrupted trade routes to political turmoil and migration fears, the conflict in Iran is sending ripples across the world—impacting China, Europe, Ukraine, and beyond. 

Trump’s war with Iran sends shockwaves through global economy and security

A man rides a motorcycle past a billboard in Valiasr Square in central Tehran. (AFP)

Since U.S. President Donald Trump launched a new war with Iran, he has described it as a shocking and horrific attack that would not have lasting consequences, particularly for Americans. On Monday in Florida, he characterized it as a “short-term disruption.”

Experts say it is rapidly turning into something entirely different: a shock to the global security system and economy that far exceeds those caused by other recent conflicts in the Middle East, according to a report from The New York Times.

Donald Trump’s war, now stretching past two weeks, has already started reshaping travel patterns, energy reliance, living costs, trade routes, and strategic partnerships. Countries typically insulated from regional conflicts, like Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates, have faced retaliatory fire from Iran. The ramifications could disrupt the U.S. midterm elections, alter war calculations in Ukraine, and force China into a major economic shift.

 

These effects might worsen if Trump continues with the war, especially if Iran escalates its counterattacks and disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit passage. Some economists are already recalling a president's worst nightmare: the specter of stagflation triggered by an oil shock, with stagnation and soaring prices.

The war has a direct and deep impact on the Middle East. Attacks across the region have killed more than a thousand people and caused significant damage to vital infrastructure and the environment, resulting in plumes of toxic smoke and black rain over Tehran following Israeli strikes on fuel depots.

Iran has launched more attacks on Gulf states than on Israel, according to a U.S. war observer, targeting five-star hotels and damaging desalination plants.

Columns of smoke rise from the site of airstrikes near Azadi Tower in western Tehran (AFP).

Columns of smoke rise from the site of airstrikes near Azadi Tower in western Tehran (AFP).

 

For much of the rest of the world, one of the war's first tangible effects has been a spike in gasoline prices. As oil tankers stopped passing through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged to over $100 a barrel in global markets, despite dipping slightly in recent days. French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that his country would send 10 warships to the area, possibly to escort ships through the strait.

In recent days, Trump administration officials and European leaders have explored options to lower gasoline prices, which have risen with the spike in global oil prices. Economists have begun warning that a prolonged oil crisis could lead to soaring commodity prices across various economies, burdening economic growth — a fate similar to the stagflation that followed the Iranian revolution in 1979.

The loss of access to cheap oil poses an emerging risk for China, but it is not the only danger. Chinese exporters are increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern consumers. The disruption of Middle Eastern economies could limit Chinese goods sales there, weakening China's own growth.

Conversely, the rising oil prices benefit Russia by boosting oil revenues that help finance Moscow's war machine in Ukraine. Europeans are also concerned that fierce fighting in the Middle East might indirectly harm Ukrainian defenses: the more interceptor missiles the U.S. and its allies use against Iran, the fewer missiles available for Ukraine to defend itself against Russian attacks.

In the United States, the war seems to have already become a political burden for Trump. It enjoys relatively little popular support compared to past wars. Democrats are leveraging the rising energy costs to gain voter support ahead of the midterm elections, which were already focused on the soaring cost of living.

Publicly, Trump has boasted about the military might the U.S. and Israel have injected into the war while offering shifting explanations for the reasons behind the attacks on Iran and varying timelines for their resolution. He acknowledged some of the war's costs, including the American soldiers killed.

Trump has largely dismissed other downsides, such as rising oil prices, as temporary. He has worried allies by offering few concrete plans for how the Iranian government will function post-war.

In Europe, this has raised fears of an economic collapse in Iran, potentially leading to new waves of migrants crossing the Iranian-Turkish border. For Europeans, it evokes memories of the migration crisis a decade ago, when conflicts and poverty in the Middle East and Africa drove more than a million people to seek refuge in Europe, resulting in a right-wing backlash in countries like Germany.

[Disclaimer: The original article is behind a paywall.

It's a reconstructed version.

There may be some slight discrepancies.]

Peace Is Doable