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Jill O'Donnell: Welcome to Trade Matters. A podcast of the Clayton Yeutter Institute of International Trade and Finance at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. I am Jill O'Donnell. Our guest today is Dr. Christine McDaniel, a Senior Research Fellow at George Mason University's Mercatus Center focused on international trade, globalization, and intellectual property rights. She has also held several positions in the U.S. government including Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Treasury Department and Senior Trade Economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisors.
Jill O'Donnell: You are doing a lot of really interesting work on capturing trade flows and trade statistics and tariff exclusion processes that are in place. But I want to start with a bigger picture. The question here, stepping back for a moment. We have been awash in trade statistics over the last couple of years as trade policy changes in the trade war with China often have been front and center in the news. I'm really excited to talk with you about unpacking what some of those things actually mean and how we know what we know about where things go around the globe.
So to begin by talking about what we mean by trade statistics. We know certainly exports measure what a country sells abroad. Imports measure what a country buys from abroad. That sounds simple, but it can get a lot more complicated. I want to start by asking you when we see statistics in the newspaper about our U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China, for example, or overall deficit, how do we really know what's behind those numbers? How do we really know where things go, in what quantities, and with what degree of accuracy do we know them?
Christine McDaniel: That's a really good question, and I'm really glad you asked that question. We actually are awash in data. You're right. Big data. And over the past 5, 10, 15 years the amount of data we have available has increased exponentially. However, the meaning of data that we traditionally use is in many ways becoming meaningless over time. Our industries are changing what can flow across borders, how we measure what is flowing across borders, what we don't measure that's going across borders, and then how companies are recording those flows. It's all changing, and our traditional trade statistics have not kept up. And so, while we're really good at measuring containers and goods trade, containers that move across borders, and what's inside those containers in terms of quantity, volume, as well as unit values and prices. And then we also can see what happens with tariffs. And our tariff barriers were really, really good at understanding how different trade policies affect goods trade. We don't have that type of data on services trade. And that means we don't really know how services trade policy has affect services trade. And that's a problem because 80% of our economy is in services. And so we're using old measures for a new economy. And that concerns a lot of us.
Jill O'Donnell: So that's a perfect segue into the work that you're doing right now, as I understand it, that I wanted to ask you about. As you say, we're using old measures for a new economy. And I think it's a really good reminder that the majority of the US economy is services. 80% as you said. So I'd like to talk about the work you're doing on the trade that we don't track and what you're learning there. And you've mentioned that a lot of that has to do with research and development flows, intellectual property intensive services, digital flows. Tell us a little bit more about how you're approaching this task of tracking the trade that we don't in fact track and what's all involved there.
Christine McDaniel: Well, so I'm not really tracking the trade we don't track. But I'm trying to hold up mirrors to some of the activities to see what... To get us into what we're missing. So about 10 years or so ago... And we're really talking about a couple of things. One is trade and value-added. And that does apply to goods trade. And then we're talking about services as well. So these are two big issues going on that we know are leading to misinterpretations of our trade data.
So first let's talk about trade and value-added. Robert Cootman and some of his colleagues wrote a paper on this about over 10 years ago or so now. The idea here is for your listeners, so think about if you have your phone in front of you, look at that phone. Let's say your phone costs $500. And it turns out a while ago a group of researchers got together and they track the value of...like breaking up the value capture of that phone. Basically where the revenue, sales, and profits went back to. And then also compare that, track that against labor, assembly, capital, R&D, marketing, sales distribution, et cetera. And it turns out that a very small share of those sales actually goes back to the labor side, the assembly side. So while the majority of the labor is actually done in China, less than five percent of the revenues go back to China. Over 60% of the value capture goes to the United States. That's nearly all in design and marketing by Apple. So for policymakers, the take away here is that there's little value in assembly. There's little value in electronics assembly. So bringing high volume electronics assembly back to the United States is not necessarily the path to good jobs or economic growth.
Jill O'Donnell: And what about what that tells us about our, in this case, our bilateral trade deficit with China? So as you mentioned, only a very small value of that iPhone is actually due to what happens in China. And yet when that phone is exported from China to the United States, the full value of that gets credited as an export from China. What does it say about our trade deficit in that case, and how might it look different if we could really capture trade and value-added accurately?
Christine McDaniel: So that changes from year to year, of course, because how companies sort themselves out in the value chains change. But we have seen, I think it was based on 2016 data, if we were to measure out trade deficit with China by value-added statistics, it would shrink by about 40%.
Christine McDaniel: Yeah, it's not trivial. For a trade economist, any economist really will tell me that looking at your trade balance is not necessarily a good measure of looking at the economic performance or the strength of a trading relationship. So if some of your listeners have taken micro and macro will remember current account, capital account. The current account is mostly our trade balance is literally of our capital account. The United States attracts a lot of dollars. We are a very attractive place for people around the world to put their money. And that brings a lot of dollars into the United States. We are also a largely consumer-driven economy. We have a capital account surplus. And remember, you don't export just for the sake of exporting. You're exporting for an exchange that you can use to buy things. And so by simply focusing on the current account side, you're missing the other side of the entire equation. But this particular administration is extremely focused on the trade deficit. And so that's why it's interesting now to really dive deep into these trade numbers and see what they are telling us and see what they're not telling us.
Jill O'Donnell: Right. Then what, if I can ask, what is preventing us from more accurately reporting trade and value-added? Because as you mentioned in the case of China, for example, that would make a bilateral deficit shrink by 40% in a given year. And that's really significant. It would look really different. So why do we not get a better handle on how this looks? Have our statistical methods just not caught up with this age of global supply chains yet or what's...? What would you say to that?
Christine McDaniel: Well, it will take a concerted effort in cooperation on the part of all countries that report their exports and imports. They will have to keep better track of value-added. They will have to keep better track of basically being able to trace the supply chain or at least be able to have a number on the value-added of each product and goods and services that are going in and out of their country. That means that all the participating countries, basically all of the WTO members, will have to tweak, for some it will be a tweak, for some it will be a huge change, on how they report their data, how they track their data. It might happen in my lifetime. I wouldn't be surprised if we got there. The OECD does have a trade and value-added database, so it can be done. Now, there are a lot of estimates or guesstimates in there, because not all countries trace their value-added as carefully as others. But it's definitely doable. And with new technologies, like blockchain technology, for example, it's looking more possible today than it did about a decade ago. And so it's exciting. There even are customs and border patrol here in the US. They're starting to think, What is the port of the future looking like? How is blockchain going to allow us to capture more information and data? So if enough countries do that, there could be enough momentum there to capture much better data.
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