предыдущие реакции рынков на сокращение монетарных стимулов

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Куприянов Олег Юрьевич

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Dec 23, 2013, 3:42:42 AM12/23/13

to 1_org_expertusschool, expertu...@googlegroups.com, rustrategy_macro

В 2006г обвал в Японии начался через 2 недели после объявления о начале сокращения вливаний в экономику. Первоначальная «реакция» была - оптимистичная последняя попытка роста.

Наложение временной и трендовой динамики индекса Доу Джонс в 1928-1929гг и 2012-2013гг – показывает любопытные совпадения и намекает на аналогию.

What Happened The Last Time A Major Central Bank "Tapered" QE?

After having followed a zero interest rate policy strategy and facing a further deteriorating economy in an environment of falling prices (deflation), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced the introduction of QE on 19 March 2001 and kept it in place until 9 March 2006. The BoJ chose for a very orderly and gradual unwinding of its government securities portfolio, by continuing its regular purchases of these securities (i.e a taper and not sale). The market rejoiced at the normalization for a week or 2... before dropping 24% in the following 2 months. Of course, that was a "policy mistake"; the Fed knows this time is different

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-18/what-happened-last-time-major-central-bank-tapered-qe