Considering various large-scale environmental features, climatology and model guidance, it is inferred that there is no likelihood of cyclogenesis (formation of depression) during the entire forecast period. However, there is a likelihood of development of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal towards the end of week 1 and under its influence a low pressure area over the North Bay of Bengal in the beginning of week 2. Subsequently, the low pressure area is likely to move west-northwestwards and become more marked during week 2.
Kindly find the attached Outlook for details.