Robinson Kruse

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The RePEc plagiarism page Is U.S. real output growth really non-normal? Testing distributional assumptions in time-varying location-scale modelsMatei Demetrescu and Robinson Robinson Kruse-Becher (Obfuscate( 'fernuni-hagen.de', 'robinson.kruse-becher' ))
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Robinson Robinson Kruse-Becher: University of Hagen and CREATES, Postal: Universittsstr. 47, D-58097 Hagen, GermanyCREATES Research Papers from Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus UniversityAbstract:Testing distributional assumptions is an evergreen topic in statistics, econometrics and other quantitative disciplines. A key assumption for extant distributional tests is some form of stationarity. Yet, under time-varying mean or time-varying volatility, the observed marginal distribution belongs to a mixture family with components having the same baseline distribution but different location and scale parameters. Therefore, distribution tests consistently reject when stationarity assumptions are violated, even if the baseline distribution is correctly specified. At the same time, time-varying means or variances are common in economic data. We therefore propose distribution tests that are robustified to such time-variability of the data by means of a local standardization procedure. As a leading case in applied work, we demonstrate our approach in detail for the case of testing normality, while our main results are extended to general location-scale models without essential modifications. In addition to time-varying mean and volatility functions, the data generating process may exhibit features such as generic serial dependence. Specifically, we base our tests on raw moments of probability integral transformations of the series standardized using rolling windows of data, of suitably chosen width. The use of probability integral transforms is advantageous as they accommodate a wide range of distributions to be tested for and imply simple raw moment restrictions. Flexible nonparametric estimators of the mean and the variance functions are employed for the local standardization. Short-run dynamics are taken into account using the (fixed-b) Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust [HAR] approach of Kiefer and Vogelsang (2005, Econometric Theory), which leads to robustness of the proposed test statistics to the estimation error induced by the local standardization. To ease implementation, we propose a simple rule for choosing the tuning parameters of the standardization procedure, as well as an effective finite-sample adjustment. The provided Monte Carlo experiments show that the new tests perform well in terms of size and power and outperform alternative tests even under stationarity. Finally, we find in contrast to other studies no evidence against normality of the aggregate U.S. real output growth rates after accounting for time-variation in mean and variance.Keywords: Distribution testing; Probability integral transformation; Local standardization; Nonparametric estimation; Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust inference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C14 C22 E01 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 57
Date: 2021-05-20
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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Boken speglar 1700-talets upplysningsmnniska och visar upplysningstidens optimism fr mnniskans frnuft och kunnande. Historien om den skeppsbrutne som byggt ett nytt liv p en har inspirerat till en mngd efterfljare, i bokgenren robinsonad.

Robinson Kruse har dock ven en fregngare frn 1100-talet i boken "Hayy ibn Yaqzan. Den sjlvlrde filosofen"[1] av Ibn Tufail, som levde norr om Granada i det muslimska Spanien (al-Andalus) och dog i Marocko 1185. Boken handlar om ett barn som vxer upp p en obebodd och frvrvar stor kunskap med naturen som lromstare.[2]

Trots den enkla stilen i berttandet och avsaknaden av krleksmotiv s blev boken vl mottagen. James Joyce ansg att symbolen fr brittisk kolonisering fanns i Robinson Crusoe. "Han r den sanna prototypen fr en brittisk kolonisatr... hela den anglosaxiska andan finns i Crusoe: Den manliga sjlvstndigheten, den omedvetna grymheten, envisheten, den lngsamma men effektiva intelligensen, den sexuella apatin och den berknande fordigheten."[3]

Robinson Crusoe r fylld med religisa aspekter. Defoe sjlv var puritan och skrev vanligtvis bcker om hur man var en god kristen puritan. Han skrev bcker som The New Family Instructor (1727) och Religious Courtship (1722). Medan Robinson Crusoe r mycket mer n en guide fr ungdomar hur man gr ut i livets lnga resa, s delar den mnga teman med tidigare nmnd litteratur. Den delar samma problem som guidebcker, och presenterar samma teologiska och moraliska perspektiv.

Sjlva namnet "Crusoe" kan mjligtvis vara taget frn en Timothy Cruso, en klasskamrat till Defoe som skrivit ett antal bcker, bland annat God the Guide of Youth (1695), innan han dog vid tidig lder, bara tta r innan Defoe skrev Robinson Crusoe. En del pstr till och med att Defoes bok inspirerats av Crusos bok, och att de skulle dela mnga drag.

ven om de vriga romanerna i mnga fall ndde samma litterra kvalitet blev Robinson Crusoe den absolut mest knda. Daniel Defoe skrev under den s kallade upplysningstiden, vilket ocks prglat boken.Men romanen har framfr allt kommit att st som en symbol fr den klassiska ventyrsromanen och har genom alla tider fngslat lsare bland bde barn och vuxna. Med sitt spnnande motiv och sin fascinerande upplggning har den lockat mnga senare frfattare till efterfljd.