Serial Number On Guns

[Akinlolu Watters]

This is a list of countries by estimated number of privately owned guns per 100 people. The Small Arms Survey 2017[1] provides estimates of the total number of civilian-owned guns in a country. It then calculates the number per 100 people. This number for a country does not indicate the percentage of the population that owns guns. This is because individuals can own more than one gun.

See also: Percent of households with guns by country. It gives the percent of households with guns. It is further broken down by the percent of households with handguns. Also, by the percent of adults living in armed households.

All the numbers in the main column of the table below are from the annex table of Small Arms Survey 2017. The briefing paper for it says: "Numbers provided here include all firearms in civilian hands, both licit and illicit." The annex table where all the numbers in the main column come from also includes some sub-national areas and territories such as Northern Ireland, Puerto Rico, Scotland, etc.[1]

United Kingdom.[note 1] Small Arms Survey 2017 does not have a number for the UK.[1] It only provides numbers for these countries which constitute the UK: Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales.
Region and subregion names. Table source uses United Nations geoscheme.[3]
Computation method:

For our analysis, we combed through decades of historical ATF data, and supplemented import totals with U.S. International Trade Commission import reports. We found that more than 494 million firearms have been produced for the U.S. market since 1899, and the pace of that production has been increasing. This figure includes imports from foreign gunmakers, but excludes exports by domestic gunmakers.

This data includes guns that are purchased by law enforcement, but not the military. The Small Arms Survey, a Switzerland-based outfit that publishes periodic reports on the global gun stock, estimated in 2018 that local, state, and federal police forces in the United States had just over 1 million firearms.

The 1 percent attrition could potentially overestimate the number of guns falling out of circulation, particularly in periods of heightened production, like 2020 and 2021. This is because the calculation applies a flat 1 percent reduction each year to the total number of firearms, without attempting to take into account the actual age of the firearms in circulation. In other words, if the total number of firearms increases, so does the number of guns that fall out of circulation.

Finally, the ATF data does not account for 3D-printed guns and most guns assembled from kits, because until recently, DIY firearms were not required to be reported to the agency. A rule that took effect in 2022 requires privately made firearms to be imprinted with serial numbers, which may result in more accurate information about their manufacture going forward.

The ATF data shows that between 2015 and 2019, gunmakers produced an average of more than 13 million guns a year for the U.S. market, a figure that includes both domestic manufacturing and imports. In 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic spurred record demand for firearms, 17 million guns hit the domestic market.

Researchers caution that this does not necessarily mean that an increase in gun manufacturing causes an increase in gun deaths. In many instances, however, gun production and gun deaths peaked in the same year.

Before joining The Trace as an investigative fellow in June 2020, Chip worked as a reporter and the editor-in-chief of his collegiate newspaper, The Auburn Plainsman. He also covered the state legislature, governor, courts, and elections for the Alabama Political Reporter. As an undergraduate, Chip studied political science and journalism at Auburn University. He also earned an M.A. with a concentration in politics from the Columbia Journalism School.The only newsroom dedicated to reporting on gun violence.Your tax-deductible donation to The Trace will directly support nonprofit journalism on gun violence and its effects on our communities.

In 2021, the most recent year for which complete data is available, 48,830 people died from gun-related injuries in the U.S., according to the CDC. That figure includes gun murders and gun suicides, along with three less common types of gun-related deaths tracked by the CDC: those that were accidental, those that involved law enforcement and those whose circumstances could not be determined. The total excludes deaths in which gunshot injuries played a contributing, but not principal, role. (CDC fatality statistics are based on information contained in official death certificates, which identify a single cause of death.)

The overall increase in U.S. gun deaths since the beginning of the pandemic includes an especially stark rise in such fatalities among children and teens under the age of 18. Gun deaths among children and teens rose 50% in just two years, from 1,732 in 2019 to 2,590 in 2021.

The gun death rate in the U.S. is much higher than in most other nations, particularly developed nations. But it is still far below the rates in several Latin American countries, according to a 2018 study of 195 countries and territories by researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

The Gun Violence Archive, an online database of gun violence incidents in the U.S., defines mass shootings as incidents in which four or more people are shot, even if no one was killed (again excluding the shooters). Using this definition, 706 people died in these incidents in 2021.

The United States has by far the highest rate of child and teen firearm mortality among peer nations. In no other similarly large, wealthy country are firearms in the top four causes of death for children and teens, let alone the number one cause. U.S. states with the most gun laws have lower rates of child and teen firearm deaths than states with few gun laws. But, even states with the lowest child and teen firearm deaths have rates much higher than what peer countries experience.

While the rate of firearm deaths among children has increased since 2000, the rate of motor vehicle deaths is now significantly lower than it had been. The number of motor vehicle deaths among children in 2021 was 49% lower than in 2000, though it did grow during the pandemic by 22% from 2019. Though fewer in number than firearm deaths among children, deaths due to poisonings, which include drug overdoses, have also grown, increasing 186% since 2000 and 103% since 2019.

On a per capita basis, the firearm death rate among children and teens (ages 1-19) in the U.S. is over 9.5 times the firearm death rate of Canadian children and teens (ages 1-19). Canada is the country with the second-highest child and teen firearm death rate among similarly large and wealthy nations.

The child and teen (ages 1-19 years) firearm mortality rate varies by state in the U.S. from 2.1 deaths per 100,000 in New York and New Jersey to 17.6 deaths per 100,000 in Louisiana. Even in New York and New Jersey, which have the lowest child and teen firearm mortality rates among those with available data, the rate is still over three times that in Canada.

Because there is no comprehensive national firearm registry, it is difficult to track gun ownership in the U.S. Instead, we look at the correlation between the number of child and teen firearm deaths and the number of gun laws in U.S. states (based on the State Firearm Law Database, which is a catalog of the presence or absence of 134 firearm law provisions across all 50 states).

States with more restrictive firearm laws in the U.S. generally have fewer child and teen firearm deaths than states with fewer firearm law provisions. Even so, these states on average have a much higher rate of child and teen firearm deaths than that of Canada and other countries. Among comparably large and wealthy countries, Canada has the second highest child and teen firearm death rate to the U.S. However, Canada generally has more restrictive firearm laws and regulates access to guns at the federal level. In the U.S., guns may be brought to states with strict laws from out-of-state or unregistered sources.

With the exception of Canada, in no other peer country were firearms among the top five causes of childhood and teenage death. Motor vehicle accidents and cancer are the two most common causes of death for this age group in all other comparable countries.

Combining all child and teen firearm deaths in the U.S. with those in other OECD countries with above median GDP and GDP per capita, the U.S. accounts for 97% of gun-related child and teen deaths, despite representing 46% of the total population in these countries. Combined, the eleven other similarly large and wealthy countries account for only 153 of the total 4,886 firearm deaths for children and teens ages 1-19 years in these nations, and the U.S. accounts for the remainder.

In 2021 in the U.S., the overall child and teen firearm assault rate was 3.9 per 100,000 children and teens. In the U.S., the overall suicide rate among children and teens was 3.8 per 100,000; and 1.8 per 100,000 child and teen suicide deaths were by firearms. In comparable countries, on average, the overall suicide rate is 2.8 per 100,000 children and teens, and 0.2 per 100,000 children and teens suicide deaths were by firearms.

If the U.S. child and teen suicide by firearm rate was brought down to the same level as in Canada, the peer country with the next highest rate, over 1,000 fewer children and teens would have died in 2021 alone.

The spike in 2020 and 2021 in child and teen firearm deaths in the U.S. was primarily driven by an increase in violent assault deaths. The child and teen firearm assault mortality rate reached a high in 2021 with a rate of 3.9 per 100,000, a 7% increase from the year before and a 50% increase from 2019. The firearm suicide mortality rate among children and teenagers in the U.S. increased 21% from 2019 to 2021.

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