How do you calculate race day "no-shows?"
Jay
definition for how large a race is, but most use number of finishers
while some use the number of entries." That led me to wonder about the
difference between those two numbers and whether, under normal
circumstances (meaning the absence of a hurricane, blizzard or heat
wave on race day) there is a formula that most races can use to get a
rough idea of how many people who pre-registered won't show up on race
day? The reasons could be illness, injury, or change of plans. Might
it be 10% of the race registrants? More? Less?
If there is a reliable formula, what do you do with that information?
Do you under-order supplies and save some money? Do you, if you have a
registration limit, register people beyond that limit, knowing that
you can collect extra registration fees and still have your stated
limit of racers on the course on race day? Or do you not do anything
different, knowing that too many factors over which you may have
little or no control can change the number of no-shows in any given
year?
Jay
Mike St Laurent
It TOTALLY depends on when people register.
I have tracked this.
1 week before Race day 98% - Yes some no shows from 1 week out
2- 4 weeks before is 95%
4- 8 weeks before 90%
greater than 8 weeks it starts sliding all the way to 75%
Average for us is 88% showing up to run
But 90% to get shirts..
2% come, get shirts, but dont run, or a friend picks up.
Mike
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--
Mike St. Laurent
LOCO Sports, Inc.
603 659 2824
Stearns, Guy
I don't know of a formula, but depending on the weather, I would say we get 10% - 20% no shows. I bet the St. Paddy's Day race last Sunday was much higher!
When we say that we limit our field to 1200 runners, I order 1400 numbers and will register up to 1400. 1400 would probably net us 1150- 1250 actual participants. I suppose that it would be just as easy to limit our race to 1400 registered runners.
Guy
Jay
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Todd Hanson
I'll chime in since my race was mentioned. St.Paddy's 5 Miler saw about 45% no shows in that torrential rain storm we had on Sunday the 14th. Given the running (and driving) conditions that day I was surprised the no-show rate wasn't greater. I had all but written off race-day registration but about 50 people actually decided that morning to run/swim the course. To get an idea of the conditions, all the port-o-lets blew over and scattered across the parking lot and the waterstop tables at times had to be held down by volunteers.
We over bought everything to make sure we didn't frustrate our runners even if we exceeded our expected numbers. Being the first year and a March race it was hard to project our field accurately.
People are more likely to no-show for a shorter race if the conditions are bad. If people select and train for say a half, months ahead, they are much more likely to show even if conditions are less then ideal unless they are sick or injured. Shorter races are less of a commitment and you can usually find a substitute short race soon after.
Regarding mile splits, I'll bring my perspective as a competitor in 200+ races. Clocks are preferred and expected in most larger events. In smaller races, I personally was always fine with someone calling the first few splits. It was very frustrating to miss mile markers and be told later there was a paint mark on the pavement. The cardinal sin was mile marks misallocated or time clocks not accurately synced. I always trust my watch over the clocks but I had no way of telling that a mile split was off the mark. Both of these problems have improved over the years.
Todd
veteran.runner
From: road-race-directo...@googlegroups.com [mailto:road-race-directo...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Mike St Laurent
Sent: Monday, March 22, 2010 3:44 PM
To: road-race-directo...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: How do you calculate race day "no-shows?"