Report from Kenya #644 -- Positive Update on Covid-19 in Kenya.

[David Zarembka]

Positive Update on Covid-19 in Kenya.

Report from Kenya #644 – February 26, 2021

If you want the URL for this report, contact me at davidz...@gmail.com

This is the most recent chart on Covid-19 for Kenya. The solid line is the average one-week number of new cases per day. The dotted line is the average one-week number of death per day. Unlike my previous charts this chart is for the total number of cases. As you can see Kenya is now averaging about 200 cases per day and under 6 deaths per day.

It is now time for another update on Covid-19 in Kenya. In some respects the situation looks good.

I have not yet had a vaccine shot. Neither has any other person living in Kenya because no vaccines have yet been delivered to the country. Part of the reality of living in Africa is that one has to accept the fact that in a worldwide perspective he or she is going to get the short end of the stick. But then I look at the statistics and note that the United States is having tens of thousands of cases daily and thousands of deaths, while Kenya is now averaging about 200 cases per day and less than 6 deaths per day. Vaccines are supposed to be delivered next week, but previously the delivery date was the end of January, then mid-February, then the end of February. The vaccines will come when they come.

If you look at the chart the second wave of Covid-19 peaked in mid-November. At that time Kenya renewed some restrictions. My opinion at that time was that the new restrictions were not sufficient to curtail the spread of the virus. As you can see from the chart, I was wrong. I think that people who had become rather complacent about Covid-19 began again to more rigorously follow the proper preventive measures. It is clear that, when people follow the hand washing, wearing masks, practice social distancing, and avoid large gatherings, the virus, even though it is not eradicated, can be contained. Individual behavioral changes are of utmost importance.

As you can see from the chart, since the beginning of January, the number of cases and the number of deaths have remained fairly constant at a low level. After the first wave was contained in September and the government ended most restrictions, this gave the population a great sigh of relief and people let down their guard. This time after the second wave has been contained, the health officials are telling people to keep up their guard so that a third wave does not occur. The health officials have issued new warnings due of the small increases in the last two weeks or so.

The containment of the second wave has had huge implications. Last week as reported in the Daily Nation from November to February:                                                                                                                        

• The daily average number of admissions to hospitals dropped from 1,277 to 371.
• The average number of infected people in isolation dropped from 5,120 to 1,280.
• The number of people in ICUs dropped from 63 to 33.
• The number of people on supplementary oxygen dropped from 92 to 23.
• There were no patients in high dependency units for 11 days is February, the longest time span in the previous four months. The highest number at 25 people was November 27 and 28.

In November the health care system for Covid-19 was at capacity, particularly in Nairobi. Any major increase in cases then would have been catastrophic. Now on the other hand there is surplus capacity in case there is another third wave. This is what is so positive about the situation now

At this time in Eldoret I can buy a Kenyan made N-95 mask for 100/- ($1.00).

Unfortunately since March 3,068 health care workers have been infected with Covid-19 of which 32 have died including 12 doctors.

There have been some interesting developments in Kenya. In the United States over the Christmas holidays, Americans threw caution to the wind and traveled and visited. This led to a large spike in cases and then deaths. The tradition in Kenya is for everyone working outside their home area to travel back to their ancestral home over the holidays. There was great concern that this would lead to a large spike in cases and deaths as happened in the US. As you can see in the chart at most there was a small spike. It is unclear why the same disregard of caution over the holidays led to different results in the US and Kenya.

A columnist for the Daily Nation noted that a doctor friend of his told him that he was lacking patients because with all the hand washing, wearing of masks, social distancing, etc., there were very few cases of intestinal diseases and colds/flu which formerly had made up the vast majority of his case load. The implication is that perhaps the “new normal” should be what people are doing to contain Covid-19 as it also curtails other contagious diseases. 

Another interesting point: A study was done in Nairobi testing people for Covid-19 antibodies. The result was that almost one-third of the people in Nairobi had the antibodies, which would indicate that they had contracted the disease. This would mean that 1.5 million Nairobians have had the virus when the official count for Nairobi was around 50,000 cases. Wow! Even among the positive cases in Kenya, 80 to 90 percent of the positive cases tested are asymptomatic. If there are only 10,000 cases that had symptoms that were severe enough for the people to go the hospital, this would mean that less than one percent of the people who had Covid-19 had even moderate symptoms. What are the implications in our understanding of Covid-19 from the results of this study and other similar ones done in other places?

Kenya is scrambling for vaccines. The initial shipment will cover no more than front line heath workers. It is not clear if there will be sufficient vaccines for these people to receive the second dose and whether it will be the same vaccine. There are also fears that the more contagious virus mutation in South Africa will spread to Kenya. Kenyans are keeping their fingers crossed. 

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David Zarembka

Email: davidz...@gmail.com

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