Hi,
1 - I run a state government site that is averaging about 30,000 - 40,000 reCAPTCHA challenges per day. I've not had any issues. I highly recommend coding your sate with a fail-safe reCAPTCHA validation. In my case I will only stop a user where my verification response is success:false. If I fail to connect to the validation server for example, I will treat it as though the user has passed their reCAPTCHA. That way if something blocks my call from my servers to the reCAPTCHA verification server it will not end up blocking access to my site. This has not happened in the 2 years or so that I've used reCAPTCHA (originally with the version 1 API and now with the version 2 API), but I still think it's the safest way to go.
2 - No, there is no way to force a specific type of reCAPTCHA challenge. Google decides what to display based on what they can tell about the specific user. If they see the user's activity as pretty likely to be human then the user will probably get the no CAPTCHA reCAPTCHA (checkbox only). The code on the site has no way to influence that choice.
3 - I'm not associated with Google, but there really isn't a way to say what will happen in the future. It's pretty likely that if they did decide to start a fee structure, there would be a lot of notice. My personal opinion is that google is receiving some benefit by having us put their reCAPTCHA on our sites so there it doesn't seem like there's much reason for them to start charging.
4 - I don't think google would be able to decide to not show a reCAPTCHA, but the timing could have something to do with ho difficult the challenge is that gets presented to the users. On my site I've implemented my own timing feature so that I do not present another reCAPTCHA challenge to the user within a configurable time interval. In my case I'm managing reCAPTCHA through an http module that I've coded to redirect users to the reCAPTCHA challenge page if they haven't passed validation within my configured time limit.
5 - I don't know the answer. I'm pretty focussed on access from just one state in the US (and maybe some of it's neighboring states), so I haven't looked into country restrictions.
I hope this information has been helpful.
-Seth