TT's unbiased RG draw analysis

TT

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May 25, 2013, 9:36:08 AM5/25/13

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Ran a simulation of random draws and then a simulation of true RG draw,
compared the odds.

LUCK OF THE DRAW:

Overall Half Quarter
Tsong 2,15 2,95 1,85
Berdy 1,45 1,90 1,28
Feder 1,40 1,75 1,03
Ferre 1,39 1,26 1,11
Nadal 0,97 0,90 0,99
Djoko 0,95 0,57 1,01
Gasqu 0,45 0,12 0,13
Tipsa 0,42 0,12 0,90

- Tsonga got the luckiest draw, with best quarter, half and overall. He
more than doubled his small chance of winning the title... and tripled
his chance getting to the final. Well my simulation claims that his
chance now getting to the final is as high as 5,6%!!! Lucky guy! :-P

- All who were overall lucky are in the bottom half, and vice versa for
the top half, for obvious reasons.

- For clarification... Nadal got somewhat unlucky draw but for him the
numbers don't change much since the draw doesn't matter that much for
him. Couple percentages up or down is a relatively small change for Nadal.

-Federer and Ferrer improved their odds considerably, Federer nearly
doubling his chances of getting to the final. Ferrer's odds to reach the
final didn't improve that much since any possible semifinal would be
tough for him. I included his matchup problem with Federer in my
simulation. Federer's odds now for the title according to my simu is
8,7%... while Betfair sees it at 7,1%.

-Gasquet got the unluckiest quarter, despite early stiffs... first
Wawrinka, then Nadal. And if hell freezes over and he gets through he'll
probably face Djokovic in semis. And if he got through that he'd lose to
Fed in the final, lol. But I'm getting ahead of myself; according to my
simu Richie has now a whopping 2% chance of reaching SF... (in a random
draw his odds were 15%). So much for Gasquet and Tipsy benefiting from
their high seeds...

-Federer got some sort of French quarter, all Frenchies. Oh and qualifiers.

- Djokovic's quarter appears overall on easy side, will Dimitrov cause
him trouble? Heading for the Rafa-Nole semi... The odds for that to
happen is 77%. Bad news for Fedfans, and Ferrer, is that the odds for
either Nadal or Djokovic reaching the final is still 98%...

-

Here's what Betfair thought of the draw:

Overall
Tsong 1,82
Berdy 1,08
Feder 1,50
Ferre 1,44
Nadal 0,96
Djoko 0,91

...Matches pretty well with my simus.
Berdych has the biggest difference... I figure cause he'll face Gulbis
early... Perhaps Gulbis is underrated in my system... or bandwagoned on BF.

felangey

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May 25, 2013, 11:54:52 AM5/25/13

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"TT's unbiased RG draw analysis"

....^^ see you have been spending a bit more of the budget in the PR dept?

;)

ca1houn

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May 26, 2013, 4:39:28 AM5/26/13

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One men name novak make it unlucky WTF, I don't see Nadal losing this slam.

trr

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May 29, 2013, 3:42:07 PM5/29/13

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--------------------

Thanks for your analysis, very appreciated!

Beep Beep!

drew

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May 29, 2013, 9:31:59 PM5/29/13

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I don't believe simulations because they are too simple. I'd rather
juggle my own intuition and let the chips fall. I devised a system
for horse racing and after a couple of years I realized that it was of
very limited value....there are too many variables and all of the
facts available cannot help you make the right choice....ultimately
sport is interesting because we DON'T know what will happen.

drew

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May 29, 2013, 9:35:57 PM5/29/13

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On May 25, 9:36 am, TT <as...@dprk.kp> wrote:

> - Tsonga got the luckiest draw, with best quarter, half and overall.

These simulations may be helpful in a holistic or macro sense but when
you look at Tsonga's chances, you have to consider that he's a bad bet
beyond the quarters....and considering his odds, a crappy bet up until
then. You really want a player who is a lock and you only get low
percentages for lock players.

TT

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May 30, 2013, 12:21:06 AM5/30/13

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But...but...but... I bet all my bank on Tsonga!

Patrick Kehoe

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May 30, 2013, 12:42:27 AM5/30/13

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TT............ ???

You.................. you... aren't... worried about Roger winning this thing... are you?

'Cause your man Rafa's still raging along...

Do I detect a note of caution/apprehension in your posts of late?

Just curious...

P

Whisper

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May 30, 2013, 5:55:36 AM5/30/13

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er, you do realize horse racing is rigged right?

Whisper

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May 30, 2013, 6:00:46 AM5/30/13

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Tsonga will probably make the final & lose to Rafa or Djoker.

His only chance of winning is if Rafa & Djoker play a 7 hour semi, which
is possible.

Court_1

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May 30, 2013, 7:19:14 AM5/30/13

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100%, TT is terrified that Novak will take out Nadal and if he does,
you never know, Fed could win this thing.