Are the top guys sandbagging?

[drew]

Anybody else getting the impression that the top guys looking to jump Rafa at this year's FO?

Djokovic mailing it in at Madrid and Rome...Federer going down without fight in Rome...Murray saying he probably won't play. Djoker massaging the foot. I watched Del Potro play a match in Rome where he looked like he just ate a crate of valium on purpose before the match.

Are these guys just not ready or are they planning something?

My money's still of Rafa but I'll be interested to see how the guys play Rafa at this year's FO....more than a few must want to be the next Soderling to pop up and snap Rafa. I think "I am not the favorite" is probably starting to grate a little bit with these guys. I'm going to keep my money in my pocket until the quarters.

[Iceberg]

Djoker was serving for the match vs Birdman, but Birdman upped the
game.

[kaennorsing]

Op maandag 20 mei 2013 09:08:29 UTC+2 schreef drew het volgende:

Interesting idea. Rafa's surely the fave, but there are a number of guys who could upset him on the day. Though not anyone starting with an F, I'm afraid. Fed could have made it a match had he not been scheduled late, later to early, to earlier still. You could see him sluggish and slower after the late night encounter with Jano.

Djoker's won the AO without a good preparation a couple times I believe, so he could certainly do it against Rafa. Won Monte Carlo without much clay play beforehand as well. Other dark horses against Nadal are Jano, Gulbis and Potro. Let's wait and see if they get in Rafa's draw. The draw will tell us a lot, I imagine. I'd personally love to see Jano have a crack at Rafa at the FO.

[Dave Hazelwood]

Not really. Djock gave it up. He didn't want to expose Rafa to his
game before the FO as Rafa is a master at adjusting and adapting so he
wants to deny Rafa that ability hoping he will forget how to play him.

[Dave Hazelwood]

Fed or Djock will win the FO depending on whose side of the draw Rafa
ends up in.

[felangey]

> Interesting idea. Rafa's surely the fave, but there are a number of guys
> who could upset him on the day.
> Though not anyone starting with an F, I'm afraid.

Surely you are forgetting Ffffernando Verdasco, Ffffeliciano Lopez and
Ffferer. Sure to be the biggest threats Nadal will face in his half! :)

[felangey]

> Djokovic mailing it in at Madrid and Rome....

This is my feeling regarding Djokovic at least. He wants the FO really badly
and, I think, is managing his efforts around that. He sent his message in
MC....no need to bash against Nadal all the way to Paris. That is not to say
he tanked matches....but he certainly wasn't putting it all on the line.

> Federer going down without fight in Rome....

Providing Murray plays, Nadal going to no.4 means that Fed now knows the
earliest he can meet him is the final. So hopefully Nads draws Djoke....Fed
avoids Berdy....who knows from there! ;)

> I watched Del Potro play a match in Rome where he looked like he just ate
> a crate of valium on purpose > before the match.

The big fella is back in Argentina....suffering from some virus or
other....trying to get fit for Paris. Fingers crossed he is ok and can play
some decent tennis....but signs not great.

> My money's still of Rafa but I'll be interested to see how the guys play
> Rafa at this year's FO....more than a > few must want to be the next
> Soderling to pop up and snap Rafa. I think "I am not the favorite" is
> probably starting to grate a little bit with these guys. I'm going to
> keep my money in my pocket until the
> quarters.

With Djoke drifting out to almost 3.50....hmm....yes please!! A little
mugpunt might be on the cards methinks.

[TT]

The last thing Murray wants to do is losing to Wawrinka, or Djokovic
start losing to likes of Dimi/Bird, or Federer getting slaughtered
against Rafa at Rome final.

So no.

[TT]

14.5.2013 23:38, felangey kirjoitti:
> With Djoke drifting out to almost 3.50....hmm....yes please!! A little
> mugpunt might be on the cards methinks.

I think Rafa's betting odds are currently too big. Rafa to win at 55%
probability only?

Err...nope. It's RG, bo5 and Rafa appears to be playing high level... at
least last couple matches.

What would people give odds to Rafa vs Djoker if they meet? Rafa winning
the match with probability of 60%, 70%, 80%?

[felangey]

> I think Rafa's betting odds are currently too big. Rafa to win at 55%
> probability only?

So stop the smack talk and go git some! Kerching, big payday for TT!

> What would people give odds to Rafa vs Djoker if they meet? Rafa winning
> the match with probability of 60%, 70%, 80%?

None of my money would hit the exchange at anything like that. The last time
they played, Djokovic won....decisively. Nadal looks weary to me. We shall
see.

[kaennorsing]

Op dinsdag 14 mei 2013 22:22:54 UTC+2 schreef felangey het volgende:

Needless to say I'd like all these F's to be on the other side of the draw from Rafa. :-)

[felangey]

>> Surely you are forgetting Ffffernando Verdasco, Ffffeliciano Lopez and
>>
>> Ffferer. Sure to be the biggest threats Nadal will face in his half! :)
>
> Needless to say I'd like all these F's to be on the other side of the draw
> from Rafa. :-)

If history is anything to go by, there if efffffff all chance of that! ;)

[PeteWasLucky]

The same feeling here. But usually the tournaments start in the qf.
Regarding Federer, I have the feeling he is not rushing or pushing
himself these days.
Probably he is focusing on Wimbledon.

[Court_1]

On May 20, 3:08 am, drew <d...@technologist.com> wrote:

This is hilarious. So has Djokovic been sandbagging the whole year--
i.e. when he lost early in IW, Miami, Madrid and Rome? So his plan was
to lose all of those events and only win MC in an effort to come in at
the FO and surprise attack Nadal? You have been reading too many
superhero comic books or something. Sure it is very possible that
Djokovic could do well at the FO and reach the final and beat Nadal
convincingly but I think you are going a little far in your
sandbagging theme. The rest of them such as Murray, Del Potro, and
Federer have zero chance at beating Nadal at the FO, it is too silly
to even discuss.

[Court_1]

On May 20, 5:35 am, Dave Hazelwood <fedna...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Fed or Djock will win the FO

LOL! Federer is not winning a Challenger event on clay let alone
winning the FO to beat either Djokovic/Nadal, not in his current form.

[PeteWasLucky]

I always like when you post these things about zero chances.

[Court_1]

I really wanted to post they have less than a zero chance. If you
think Federer, Murray, Del Potro have a chance to win the FO, good for
you, glad you have such a rich fantasy life. Are you saying you think
Federer can beat Nadal at the FO in his current form? Or are you
saying Nadal has to lose early for Fed to win?

[PeteWasLucky]

It is a sport, and there is no such thing called zero chance specially
we all know that nadal's knees goes bad after losing:)
Djokovic mastered Nasal in MC, and we all know (TT says MC is the
closest thing to RG and great indicator to who wins FO).
Djokovic does not need to win Rome or Madrid to prove anything. He won
MC defeating Nadal.
He for sure needed rest to build up for the FO.
He said it is the most important tournament for him this year and over
5 sets he is not losing.

[Court_1]

What does all that you just posted above have to do with my comment
that Federer, Murray and Del Potro have zero chance to win the FO? I
never said Djokovic had zero chance. I would say right now Nadal has a
60% chance and Djokovic 40% but I need to see the draw first
obviously.

[Ulysses]

He's done this before several times with Nadal. He did in Miami a
couple years back. He was totally disinterested in their IW match this
year because his back hurt. One could even argue he did this at the FO
in 2008- a slam, no less! Fed is sublime in many areas but he sure as
hell doesn't have the fighting spirit or the balls of someone like
Pete or Rafa.

Consider Rafa in the Wimbledon in 2008 and the FO final in 2006. He
lost the first set both times to Fed, 1-6. Yet he came back strong and
never wilted. Fed goes down a break against Nadal and seemingly throws
in the towel on all surfaces except grass or indoor conditions.

[Ulysses]

As for "sandbagging," Djoker is a confidence player. He won everything
for 9 months in 2011 precisely because he was dizzingly confident.
What confidence does he bring into the FO? Yes, he beat Rafa on clay
in straights. That is a huge deal, but that is now 7 weeks ago,
ancient history in tennis terms. What has he done lately? Lost early
in Madrid to a notorious choker and then went down to supreme clown
Berdych who then got massacred by Nadal the next day.

The FO is supremely important to Djoker because of the CGS
implications. If he's peaking for the FO, he sure as hell has been
going about in a strange way. He needed to have won Rome and defeated
Nadal in the profess to sail into RG with peak confidence. He didn't
do that.

I think the only way Rafa loses in Paris will be if he gets injured or
he runs into someone in the early rounds like Jerzy Janowicz who is
ZONING and hitting 90% first serves and playing out of his mind. The
likelihood of that scenario is slim to none. I don't think Djoker has
a chance to beat him there based on their respective current forms. No
way!

[arahim]

Federer and Nadal will be in opposite halfs. It depends who gets Djokovic and who gets Murray. With Murray not really a threat on clay to this point it seems Djokovic is in the potentially worst position of having to play both Nadal and Federer to win.

At this point Federer remains untested. Who is the highest ranked player he beat in Rome or he has since the AO.

So who does Djokovic want to play in the semis? He may have a better shot getting to the final against Federer but may expend too much before the final. In playing Nadal in the semis he may have a better shot against him than having to play him in the final and may not still find it overwhelming to face Federer in the final if he gets through.

[felangey]

> So who does Djokovic want to play in the semis? He may have a better shot
> getting to the final against Federer but may expend too much before the
> final. In
> playing Nadal in the semis he may have a better shot against him than
> having to play him in the final and may not still find it overwhelming to
> face Federer in the final > if he gets through.

Yes, if you are Djoke, you 100% want to face Nadal in the semis rather than
the final.....regardless of who is coming along afterwards.

[Ulysses]

Murray isn't going to decide until Weds. whether he plays RG or not.
If he withdraws, then the seedings will be Djoker, Fed, Rafa, Ferrer.

[Patrick Kehoe]

Crazied as it sounds... IF Fed gets Murray in his half and Rafa gets Nole, Federer could win the FO this year... the dominos could fall his way... OF COURSE Nole would have to take out Rafa, which is STILL a BIG ask!

P

[arahim]

Probably best thing for him in the longer term would be to withdraw from RG.

[Patrick Kehoe]

Then again with Murray likely OUT... we all know Rafa ALWAYS gets Ferrer in his half in big events... = Rafa gets #8... :))

P

[Court_1]

I think so too. Murray has no chance at RG with his current clay form.
He would be smarter to skip RG and focus on W where he may have a shot.

[felangey]

> Crazied as it sounds... IF Fed gets Murray in his half and Rafa gets Nole,
> Federer could win the FO this year... the dominos could fall his way... OF
> COURSE
> Nole would have to take out Rafa, which is STILL a BIG ask!

....or a Nads who has played solid for weeks (overplayed?) would have to
take out a sparkly fresh and determined Nole....that could be the BIGGER
ask....we just don't know yet. Certainly the only clay meeting between the
two this year, on turf Nads has owned more than any other, ended in a
decisive defeat at the Serbs hands. There appears to me be a steely resolve
in Nole this year when he says that this is the most important tournament of
the year for him....expect fireworks.

I agree that there could be a window opens up for Fed. I am in the minorty
who think that Rome was a good tournament for him....final on clay, never
bad. He played some good tennis....and while he was left wanting for an
answer to the bouncybackhandballs yet again....it was a good platform for
him from which to build. I also think that he was disappointed at how
wrecked he was for the FO last year....he seems, to me, to really want to
win it again, and seems eager....and we know he can prep himself well for
slams, even still. Obviously as the years tick on, the obstacles appear
larger....the Berdych's, Del Potro's....even the Murray's can all hurt him
en route. It will be interesing to watch and see if he can near another
final....in many resepcts it feels like he has played too little
tennis....so we will just have to see if he can peak as the tournie moves
on.

Major bummer for me is the absence of the big lad Del P from much of
clay....signs not great that he can be a force (or will even play) the
French due to his virus. He can hurt anyone on his day on the surface.

Anyway, the way things lie, and with the onset of the Dimi/Jerzy/Paire
upturn....it should be an interesting one at least!

[felangey]

> Then again with Murray likely OUT... we all know Rafa ALWAYS gets Ferrer
> in his half in big events... = Rafa gets #8... :))
>

Murray likely out? I heard his scan was ok.....and he should play?
Announcing midweek.

[felangey]

> Then again with Murray likely OUT... we all know Rafa ALWAYS gets Ferrer
> in his half in big events... = Rafa gets #8... :))
>

....and also, if Murray pulls out, Nads and Ferrer would be no.3 and no.4
seeds respectively.....so couldn't meet until the final.

[TT]

20.5.2013 16:10, PeteWasLucky kirjoitti:
> Djokovic mastered Nasal in MC, and we all know (TT says MC is the
> closest thing to RG and great indicator to who wins FO).

Maybe Rafa wasn't at his best yet... ND sure was.

Interestingly Rafa won the other clay masters; Madrid where he is
supposed to have smallest change for the title and Rome which is Nole's
best clay event.

Judging by Rafa's last couple matches he's starting to find his groove.
If he stays at this level, or goodness me - improves for RG - the title
should be his.

[TT]

20.5.2013 16:17, Court_1 kirjoitti:
> my comment
> that Federer, Murray and Del Potro have zero chance to win the FO?

My random draw simulation (based on players' clay prowess since 2011)
gives following odds for the title:

Feder 0,057
Murra 0,005
Delpo 0,004

So if we want to nitpick that's above zero obviously. Still pretty unlikely.

[Ulysses]

"TT says MC is the closest thing to RG."

Agassi, Muster and Fed have all said that MC is the LEAST like RG in
surface and conditions. The weather and wind wreck havoc. Rome is
nearly identical in clay speed, balls and weather. Agassi never played
MC later in his career claiming the conditions there were nothing like
RG. So he should know.

[TT]

21.5.2013 2:40, Ulysses kirjoitti:
> Agassi, Muster and Fed have all said that MC is the LEAST like RG in
> surface and conditions.

Actually Muster said Hamburg is least like a clay court and great
claycourters do badly there.

And I certainly don't recall Fed saying that. Or Agassi for that matter.
What Rafa says about it is the universal truth.

[Pelle Svanslös]

On 21.5.2013 1:44, TT wrote:
> 21.5.2013 2:40, Ulysses kirjoitti:
>> Agassi, Muster and Fed have all said that MC is the LEAST like RG in
>> surface and conditions.
>
> Actually Muster said Hamburg is least like a clay court and great
> claycourters do badly there.

Isn't Hamburg indoors when needed?

> And I certainly don't recall Fed saying that. Or Agassi for that matter.

I doubt anybody legit enough would say anything like that of clay
courtsies. The weather and crap make them vary too much.

Uli seems to like these categorical statements. Most of the time they're
just dumb.

--
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/68/FEDERER_Roger-24x30-1998.jpg