jdeluise kirjoitti 16.5.2022 klo 9:03:
> I think post-Putin Russia could be even more dangerous.
Possible. But also much weakened militarily (and economically).
"Russia has likely lost a third of troops in Ukraine, British
intelligence says" (as in killed & injured, not fit for battle)
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/05/15/likely-lost-third-troops-ukraine-british-intelligence/9631652623871/?u3L=1
... looks to me that Russian losses are untenable at this rate and
Ukraine will gradually start rolling over Russian troops more and more &
gain their territory back.
Yesterday there was already a clip on Ukrainian Territorial Force
soldiers taking pictures at Ukrainian border near Kharkiv. Setting up a
yellow/blue border pole on the border. That's only like 40km from
Kharkiv - but still - seems that Ukraine dominates now on that part of
the Eastern front.
There appeared also to be many videos on Ukrainian artillery
slaughtering Russian equipment, with pinpoint precision. The 155m
howitzers from US, drones & artillery radars for targeting enemy
equipment appear to be making wonders. Meanwhile Russian drones are
dropping by the dozens (due to multitude of manpads Ukraine has
received), which doesn't help their already careless artillery
targeting. I think these howitzers, advanced (guided etc) ammunition &
targeting systems are a game changer - much more so than the much talked
about kamikaze drones. Thank you USA.
-
So I'm going to make a bold prediction...
There are two options for Russia...
1. Take it like a man and withdraw the troops when losses come untenable
(which could be relatively soon, in 2-6 months?). Hard to portray that
as a victory in domestic politics for Putin... and he might accidentally
drop off a window etc.
2. Continue battle and announce war against Ukraine, announce nationwide
mobilization.
...This I think could be even more devastating for Russia. There's no
use sending more cannon fodder to the border especially when you can't
supply them with decent equipment. Modern war is more about technology &
machinery than million men standing with first world war Mosin-Nagants
in their hands & 70s food rations on their back backpack.
So here's my bold prediction: with general mobilization, I see internal
turmoil in Russia... which could actually lead to breakup of Russia,
parts of trying to secede, for example Siberia (with its oil & gas).
Other option is, rather likely, that Putin would again fall from a
window or commit a 'suicide' in other ways, rest of the power structures
rebelling against general mobilization & possible breakup of Russia.
Ok, I think there's one more option...
3. Putin using tactical nuclear weapons, which might have all sorts of
consequences:
-Ukraine surrendering, Putin winning
-Uprising in Russia, Putin hanged.
-Generals refusing the order, Putin arrested/shot/falling from window
-NATO getting fully involved which could lead to all out nuclear war, or...
simply Russia taken apart militarily ending with government changes,
paying reparations etc.
There's also an option of Ukraine army marching to Moscow (very unlikely)
4. Russian victory, taking over all of Ukraine (very unlikely).
5. Peace agreement, frozen conflict etc