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Peaks of Women Greats by ELO Ratings
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heyg...@gmail.com
Aug 31, 2015, 11:12:27 AM8/31/15
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/serena-williams-and-the-difference-between-all-time-great-and-greatest-of-all-time/
Interesting analysis mapping performance accounting for level of competition.
Highlights:
--Graf has the highest peak of any woman by a slim margin, with Seles, Navratilova, Henin, Serena, and Venus close behind
--Serena is currently facing a pretty weak field by historical standards (3rd graph)
--1992 was the year with the toughest competition on average, which Seles dominated (3rd graph)
--Graf didn't really slump post 1990--her rating stays above 2500. Seles' peak was just higher than the level Graf achieved post 1990. Even Graf's 95/96 level wasn't better than peak Seles. (2nd graph)
--Serena really did slump post 2003 and was slumping when Henin got most of her slam victories over her in 2007.
--Serena is the only player to turn around a deep slump, with her resurgence seemingly tied to new strings and a proper coach in 2012.
--Graf and Navratilova (and likely Seles w/no stabbing) were the only players with serious time above 2500.
About Serena's current top competitors:
Could a new rival emerge? Sure, it's possible. But Sharapova, No. 2 to Williams in Elo among active players, has shown signs of decline at age 28. Azarenka and Kvitova, younger Williams rivals with two major titles each, are 26 and 25, respectively, and might have already peaked. Williams has stayed so great for so long, she looks likely to stay at the top of the game when rivals a decade younger have already started to fade.
Interesting analysis mapping performance accounting for level of competition.
Highlights:
--Graf has the highest peak of any woman by a slim margin, with Seles, Navratilova, Henin, Serena, and Venus close behind
--Serena is currently facing a pretty weak field by historical standards (3rd graph)
--1992 was the year with the toughest competition on average, which Seles dominated (3rd graph)
--Graf didn't really slump post 1990--her rating stays above 2500. Seles' peak was just higher than the level Graf achieved post 1990. Even Graf's 95/96 level wasn't better than peak Seles. (2nd graph)
--Serena really did slump post 2003 and was slumping when Henin got most of her slam victories over her in 2007.
--Serena is the only player to turn around a deep slump, with her resurgence seemingly tied to new strings and a proper coach in 2012.
--Graf and Navratilova (and likely Seles w/no stabbing) were the only players with serious time above 2500.
About Serena's current top competitors:
Could a new rival emerge? Sure, it's possible. But Sharapova, No. 2 to Williams in Elo among active players, has shown signs of decline at age 28. Azarenka and Kvitova, younger Williams rivals with two major titles each, are 26 and 25, respectively, and might have already peaked. Williams has stayed so great for so long, she looks likely to stay at the top of the game when rivals a decade younger have already started to fade.
Pelle Svanslös
Aug 31, 2015, 11:23:03 AM8/31/15
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similar result. The average ELO of the top 10 was at its lowest in 2003.
--
“Hiss first. Listen later."
soccerfan777
Aug 31, 2015, 12:53:15 PM8/31/15
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I would say most of the 80s champions would have high ELO ratings.
Shakes
Aug 31, 2015, 2:34:54 PM8/31/15
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TT
Aug 31, 2015, 3:50:04 PM8/31/15
to
Graph titled "Serena Williams' competition takes a nosedive":
-Hard to believe that Graf had stronger competition than Serena.
... the reason why level of top 8 looks to be stronger in the past is
likely because the level below top was crap. ELO rating in general
punishes losses to weaker players a lot and hardly at all if you lose to
your own peers. Nowadays there are lots of dangerous low ranked players
on WTA and while the format is BO3...
Graph "The history of open era women's tennis":
-Are we to believe that Evert had same level during 1973-1988...
...and that Navratilova's prime level was much higher than Evert's. I
don't think so. In reality Evert's level dropped and Navra didn't have
much competition which shows her curve rocketing up as if her best form
had been in her 30s...
I'm not sure ELO ratings, or whatever mockup of it they're using, is
that valid for tennis. Carl Bialik's tennis stats often have flaws and
biases.
soccerfan777
Aug 31, 2015, 4:09:42 PM8/31/15
to
On Monday, August 31, 2015 at 2:50:04 PM UTC-5, TT wrote:
> 31.8.2015, 18:12, heyg...@gmail.com kirjoitti:
> > http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/serena-williams-and-the-difference-between-all-time-great-and-greatest-of-all-time/
> >
> > Interesting analysis mapping performance accounting for level of competition.
> >
> > Highlights:
> > --Graf has the highest peak of any woman by a slim margin, with Seles, Navratilova, Henin, Serena, and Venus close behind
> > --Serena is currently facing a pretty weak field by historical standards (3rd graph)
> > --1992 was the year with the toughest competition on average, which Seles dominated (3rd graph)
> > --Graf didn't really slump post 1990--her rating stays above 2500. Seles' peak was just higher than the level Graf achieved post 1990. Even Graf's 95/96 level wasn't better than peak Seles. (2nd graph)
> > --Serena really did slump post 2003 and was slumping when Henin got most of her slam victories over her in 2007.
> > --Serena is the only player to turn around a deep slump, with her resurgence seemingly tied to new strings and a proper coach in 2012.
> > --Graf and Navratilova (and likely Seles w/no stabbing) were the only players with serious time above 2500.
> >
> > About Serena's current top competitors:
> > Could a new rival emerge? Sure, it's possible. But Sharapova, No. 2 to Williams in Elo among active players, has shown signs of decline at age 28. Azarenka and Kvitova, younger Williams rivals with two major titles each, are 26 and 25, respectively, and might have already peaked. Williams has stayed so great for so long, she looks likely to stay at the top of the game when rivals a decade younger have already started to fade.
> >
>
> Interesting but I'm not that confident if valid...
>
> Graph titled "Serena Williams' competition takes a nosedive":
>
> -Hard to believe that Graf had stronger competition than Serena.
> ... the reason why level of top 8 looks to be stronger in the past is
> likely because the level below top was crap.
All speculation.
> 31.8.2015, 18:12, heyg...@gmail.com kirjoitti:
> > http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/serena-williams-and-the-difference-between-all-time-great-and-greatest-of-all-time/
> >
> > Interesting analysis mapping performance accounting for level of competition.
> >
> > Highlights:
> > --Graf has the highest peak of any woman by a slim margin, with Seles, Navratilova, Henin, Serena, and Venus close behind
> > --Serena is currently facing a pretty weak field by historical standards (3rd graph)
> > --1992 was the year with the toughest competition on average, which Seles dominated (3rd graph)
> > --Graf didn't really slump post 1990--her rating stays above 2500. Seles' peak was just higher than the level Graf achieved post 1990. Even Graf's 95/96 level wasn't better than peak Seles. (2nd graph)
> > --Serena really did slump post 2003 and was slumping when Henin got most of her slam victories over her in 2007.
> > --Serena is the only player to turn around a deep slump, with her resurgence seemingly tied to new strings and a proper coach in 2012.
> > --Graf and Navratilova (and likely Seles w/no stabbing) were the only players with serious time above 2500.
> >
> > About Serena's current top competitors:
> > Could a new rival emerge? Sure, it's possible. But Sharapova, No. 2 to Williams in Elo among active players, has shown signs of decline at age 28. Azarenka and Kvitova, younger Williams rivals with two major titles each, are 26 and 25, respectively, and might have already peaked. Williams has stayed so great for so long, she looks likely to stay at the top of the game when rivals a decade younger have already started to fade.
> >
>
> Interesting but I'm not that confident if valid...
>
> Graph titled "Serena Williams' competition takes a nosedive":
>
> -Hard to believe that Graf had stronger competition than Serena.
> ... the reason why level of top 8 looks to be stronger in the past is
> likely because the level below top was crap.
> ELO rating in general
> punishes losses to weaker players a lot and hardly at all if you lose to
> your own peers. Nowadays there are lots of dangerous low ranked players
> on WTA
Anyway all that matters is what you do against the best of the restand if the best are really playing well or not.
In case of Serena, the best of the rest are barely playing well. Aza was gone with injuries and now she is back but not as strong as what she was. Ivanovic is barely there. Kvitova a total flake. Sharapova a mental midget against Serena. She is getting a free ride and you know it.
TT
Aug 31, 2015, 4:20:46 PM8/31/15
to
31.8.2015, 23:09, soccerfan777 kirjoitti:
> All speculation.
>
No, not speculation... the level of low ranked players IS overall higher
now than in the past. That naturally decreases "ELO rating" of top 8.
>
> In case of Serena, the best of the rest are barely playing well. Aza was gone with injuries and now she is back but not as strong as what she was. Ivanovic is barely there. Kvitova a total flake. Sharapova a mental midget against Serena. She is getting a free ride and you know it.
>
Well Sharapova being a headcase against one player ranked higher than
her shouldn't have almost any effect on her ELO rating. I agree that
Serena doesn't have a great rival currently but my pick is with top 8
level in the graph.
Naturally you sidestepped my complaints about Evert-Navra...
> All speculation.
>
No, not speculation... the level of low ranked players IS overall higher
now than in the past. That naturally decreases "ELO rating" of top 8.
>
> In case of Serena, the best of the rest are barely playing well. Aza was gone with injuries and now she is back but not as strong as what she was. Ivanovic is barely there. Kvitova a total flake. Sharapova a mental midget against Serena. She is getting a free ride and you know it.
>
her shouldn't have almost any effect on her ELO rating. I agree that
Serena doesn't have a great rival currently but my pick is with top 8
level in the graph.
Naturally you sidestepped my complaints about Evert-Navra...
Gracchus
Aug 31, 2015, 4:33:54 PM8/31/15
to
On Monday, August 31, 2015 at 1:20:46 PM UTC-7, TT wrote:
> 31.8.2015, 23:09, soccerfan777 kirjoitti:
> > All speculation.
> No, not speculation... the level of low ranked players IS overall higher
> now than in the past. That naturally decreases "ELO rating" of top 8.
Is that their winning percentage vs. Jeff Lynne?
> 31.8.2015, 23:09, soccerfan777 kirjoitti:
> > All speculation.
> No, not speculation... the level of low ranked players IS overall higher
> now than in the past. That naturally decreases "ELO rating" of top 8.
TT
Aug 31, 2015, 4:42:19 PM8/31/15
to
Related question to Raja... top 10 ELO ratings? ;-P
soccerfan777
Aug 31, 2015, 5:37:29 PM8/31/15
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Whisper
Sep 1, 2015, 7:22:59 AM9/1/15
to
Whisper
Sep 1, 2015, 7:39:41 AM9/1/15
to
On 1/09/2015 6:20 AM, TT wrote:
> 31.8.2015, 23:09, soccerfan777 kirjoitti:
>> All speculation.
>>
>
> No, not speculation... the level of low ranked players IS overall higher
> now than in the past. That naturally decreases "ELO rating" of top 8.
>
Yes, which explains why the odd journeyman is making slam semis here &
> 31.8.2015, 23:09, soccerfan777 kirjoitti:
>> All speculation.
>>
>
> No, not speculation... the level of low ranked players IS overall higher
> now than in the past. That naturally decreases "ELO rating" of top 8.
>
there. Oh wait a minute.
TT
Sep 1, 2015, 7:48:54 AM9/1/15
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AO:
Williams-Keys
Makarova-Sharapova
RG:
Williams-Baczinsky
Ivanovic-Safarova
Wimbledon:
Williams-Sharapova
Muguruza-Radwanska
stephenJ
Sep 1, 2015, 12:12:40 PM9/1/15
to
>On 8/31/2015 3:09 PM, soccerfan777 wrote:
>
>
> In case of Serena, the best of the rest are barely playing well. Aza was gone with injuries and now she is back but not as strong as what she was. Ivanovic is barely there. Kvitova a total flake. Sharapova a mental midget against Serena. She is getting a free ride and you know it.
Aza and Shara would crush girls like ASV, Sabby and Mary Jo Fernandez
>
>
> In case of Serena, the best of the rest are barely playing well. Aza was gone with injuries and now she is back but not as strong as what she was. Ivanovic is barely there. Kvitova a total flake. Sharapova a mental midget against Serena. She is getting a free ride and you know it.
that Graf feasted on. Blow them right off the court.
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soccerfan777
Sep 1, 2015, 12:42:49 PM9/1/15
to
On Tuesday, September 1, 2015 at 11:12:40 AM UTC-5, StephenJ wrote:
> >On 8/31/2015 3:09 PM, soccerfan777 wrote:
> >
> >
> > In case of Serena, the best of the rest are barely playing well. Aza was gone with injuries and now she is back but not as strong as what she was. Ivanovic is barely there. Kvitova a total flake. Sharapova a mental midget against Serena. She is getting a free ride and you know it.
>
>
> Aza and Shara would crush girls like ASV, Sabby and Mary Jo Fernandez
> that Graf feasted on. Blow them right off the court.
Not the current Aza or Shara. They are playing like crap. And tennis is not just won by power.
> >On 8/31/2015 3:09 PM, soccerfan777 wrote:
> >
> >
> > In case of Serena, the best of the rest are barely playing well. Aza was gone with injuries and now she is back but not as strong as what she was. Ivanovic is barely there. Kvitova a total flake. Sharapova a mental midget against Serena. She is getting a free ride and you know it.
>
>
> Aza and Shara would crush girls like ASV, Sabby and Mary Jo Fernandez
> that Graf feasted on. Blow them right off the court.
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