The John de Lange RSS UEFA WCQ 2014 Sophisticated Prediction Contest

[anders t]

RSSers are welcome to participate in "The John de Lange RSS UEFA WCQ 2014
Sophisticated Prediction Contest". Deadline for entries: September 7, 2012,
09:00 CET.

WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO DO TO ENTER?

1) ----
Download the spreadsheet at:
http://www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SophPredCont_UEFA_WCQ2014_AGNOSTIC.xls

2) ----
Fill in your predictions:
Each team can end up in exactly one of the following positions:
a) be a Group #6 => G6 (N/A for Group I)
b) be a Group #5 => G5
c) be a Group #4 => G4
d) be a Group #3 => G3
e) win a group => GW
f) be the worst runner up => W2
g) be a playoff loser => PL
h) be a playoff winner => PW

In the columns D-K, and for each team, you are--should you accept the
mission--to assign your predicted probability of a team ending up in
the respective position.

Example: If you think England has a 76.56% chance of ending up last in
their group, then you enter 0.7656 in the cell D58 in the spreadsheet.

Be careful to make sure there are OKs in all calculated checkpoints.
They must ALL be OK, for it to be a valid entry.

=============================================================
NOTA BENE!
This contest deploys the rule that the lowest allowable
prediction in any cell is 0.0001. There can thus be no 0s.
And, consequently, since all calculated checkpoints must
add up, all predictions in all cells will be some figure
lower than 1.
=============================================================

Be warned, filling in this sheet can take a long time, before you have
OK from all checkpoints, AND are satisfied with your predictions.
So don't wait too long to start working with this task!

In columns O-V you can, if you like, enter "1"s in the corresponding
cell to simulate your results, and later on the actual outcome.

3) ----
Use the address in my usenet profile (you know what you must do first
to make the email address valid!




Send any further questions to this thread, perhaps I have forgotten
something, or something is wrong.




--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England 2011 (19th), UEFA 2008, World 2009

[Futbolmetrix]

On 6/27/2012 6:48 PM, anders t wrote:
> RSSers are welcome to participate in "The John de Lange RSS UEFA WCQ 2014
> Sophisticated Prediction Contest". Deadline for entries: September 7, 2012,
> 09:00 CET.

Thanks for organizing this. Please send a reminder about a week before
the deadline.

D

[anders t]

Don't forget to change the name in your entry from Agnostic to Your Name
(signature).

[anders t]

Reminder!

[anders t]

Reminder!

So far, no entries, but I'm sure everybody are screening all available data
for clues on how to accurately assess the involved teams. Just don't wait
too long... Filling in the sheet correctly may take some time!

Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:

[anders t]

Reminder!

So far, no entries, but I'm sure all of you are is still screening all

>Be warned, filling out this sheet can take a long time, before you have

[anders t]

[anders t]

Remember: deadline for entries: September 7, 2012, 09:00 CET.

Still no entries, don't wait too long... Filling in the sheet correctly may

[anders t]

Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>Remember: deadline for entries: September 7, 2012, 09:00 CET.
>
>Still no entries, don't wait too long... Filling in the sheet correctly may
>take some time!

Hurry, hurry!

[Werner Pichler]

I'm at it I'm at it!!!

Ciao,
Werner

[Futbolmetrix]

On 9/3/2012 8:33 AM, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On 3 Sep., 11:40, anders t <anthu_...@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:
>> Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>>
>>> Remember: deadline for entries: September 7, 2012, 09:00 CET.
>>
>>> Still no entries, don't wait too long... Filling in the sheet correctly may
>>> take some time!

Group I done. 1 down, 8 to go...

D

[Clément]

"Futbolmetrix" escreveu:

> On 9/3/2012 8:33 AM, Werner Pichler wrote:

>> On 3 Sep., 11:40, anders t wrote:
>>> Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>>>
>>>> Remember: deadline for entries: September 7, 2012, 09:00 CET.
>>>
>>>> Still no entries, don't wait too long... Filling in the sheet correctly
>>>> may
>>>> take some time!
>
> Group I done. 1 down, 8 to go...

Man, I'm starting to have a hate on some of these groups.

[Clément]

"Cl�ment" escreveu:

Aaaand... it's in!

I know I should review some predictions, but I just can't look at the damn
spreadsheet any longer. =)

Abra�o,

Luiz Mello

[Jesus Petry]

On Monday, September 3, 2012 4:22:37 PM UTC-3, Clément wrote:
> I know I should review some predictions, but I just can't look at the damn
> spreadsheet any longer. =)

What he said.

Tchau!
Jesus Petry

[MH]

On 12-06-27 4:48 PM, anders t wrote:
> RSSers are welcome to participate in "The John de Lange RSS UEFA WCQ 2014
> Sophisticated Prediction Contest". Deadline for entries: September 7, 2012,
> 09:00 CET.
>
> WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO DO TO ENTER?
>

Working on it.

Is anyone planning to do the Europa League and CL group stages ? I
could probably revamp the spreadsheet for the CL one if someone could
host it.

[anders t]

Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:

>Quoting Jesus Petry in rec.sport.soccer:

>>On Monday, September 3, 2012 4:22:37 PM UTC-3, Cl�ment wrote:
>>> I know I should review some predictions, but I just can't look at the damn
>>> spreadsheet any longer. =)
>>
>> What he said.
>>
>> Tchau!
>> Jesus Petry
>

>Appreciated! All of you!
>
>Confirming entries from:
>- Jesus Petry
>- Cl�ment (Luiz)
- Joachim P

[Futbolmetrix]

On 9/4/2012 9:15 AM, anders t wrote:
> Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>> Confirming entries from:
>> - Jesus Petry
>> - Cl�ment (Luiz)
> - Joachim P

I have a number of entries that show up on the spreadsheet as 0.0001,
even though they are actually numbers smaller than 0.0001. Are these valid?

D

[anders t]

Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>>Quoting Jesus Petry in rec.sport.soccer:
>>>On Monday, September 3, 2012 4:22:37 PM UTC-3, Cl�ment wrote:
>>>> I know I should review some predictions, but I just can't look at the damn
>>>> spreadsheet any longer. =)
>>>
>>> What he said.
>>>
>>> Tchau!
>>> Jesus Petry
>>
>>Appreciated! All of you!
>>
>>Confirming entries from:
>>- Jesus Petry
>>- Cl�ment (Luiz)
>- Joachim P

- Anders T at:
http://www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SophPredCont_UEFA_WCQ2014_AT.zip
(pw protected, d/l now - verify later)

[Futbolmetrix]

On 9/4/2012 4:48 PM, anders t wrote:
>>
>> I have a number of entries that show up on the spreadsheet as 0.0001,
>> even though they are actually numbers smaller than 0.0001. Are these valid?
>

> I'd have to say no, I think. 0.0001 (1/10000) is the minimum resolution.
> Sorry.
>
> It is by design, btw?

Not a problem, I've figured out a solution. 4 groups down, 5 to go.

D

[anders t]

Hmm... I hope I didn't confuse you more than necessary with my question...
I meant "Is it by..."...

[anders t]

Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>>Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>>>Quoting Jesus Petry in rec.sport.soccer:
>>>>On Monday, September 3, 2012 4:22:37 PM UTC-3, Cl�ment wrote:
>>>>> I know I should review some predictions, but I just can't look at the damn
>>>>> spreadsheet any longer. =)
>>>>
>>>> What he said.
>>>>
>>>> Tchau!
>>>> Jesus Petry
>>>
>>>Appreciated! All of you!
>>>
>>>Confirming entries from:
- Jesus Petry
- Cl�ment (Luiz)
- Joachim P
- Anders T at:
http://www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SophPredCont_UEFA_WCQ2014_AT.zip
(pw protected, d/l now - verify later)

- Werner P

[anders t]

Remember the <STRIKE>titans</STRIKE> deadline:
September 7, 2012, 09:00 CET!

Confirming entries from:
- Jesus Petry
- Cl�ment (Luiz)
- Joachim P
- Anders T at:
http://www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SophPredCont_UEFA_WCQ2014_AT.zip
(pw protected, d/l now - verify later)
- Werner P

- Futbolmetrix

[Joachim Parsch]

Futbolmetrix schrieb:

Just being curious: does it make sense to use probabilities like
0.0001 or 0.00001 for very unlikely incidents (such as San Marino,
Liechtenstein or Italy topping their group)?

The advantage you gain on the large probabilities is somewhere
between very small and inexistent (there is almost no difference
between 0.6999 or 0.69999, the result being probably decided by
whether you have 0.25 or 0.35 on all these 3rd and 4th places),
whereas if you run into such a freak result you lose 2.3 or 4.6 against
the competitors (except Aggie, of course, who will smile inscrutably
when that happens).

With the logarithmic scale the result tends to be decided by the
lower probabilities, and I have a feeling, that the guesses for
the various second places (W2, PW, PL) will have a significant
effect on the result.

Joachim

[MH]

On 12-09-06 12:27 AM, anders t wrote:
> Remember the <STRIKE>titans</STRIKE> deadline:
> September 7, 2012, 09:00 CET!
>
> Confirming entries from:
> - Jesus Petry
> - Cl�ment (Luiz)
> - Joachim P
> - Anders T at:
> http://www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SophPredCont_UEFA_WCQ2014_AT.zip
> (pw protected, d/l now - verify later)
> - Werner P
> - Futbolmetrix

I have successfully completed the form (i.e. all rules obeyed and
everything adds up) but am not too happy with it, and will probably
tinker a bit with the last 3 columns today, then send it to you.

MH
>
>
>

[Futbolmetrix]

On 9/6/2012 3:29 AM, Joachim Parsch wrote:
>
> Just being curious: does it make sense to use probabilities like
> 0.0001 or 0.00001 for very unlikely incidents (such as San Marino,
> Liechtenstein or Italy topping their group)?
>
> The advantage you gain on the large probabilities is somewhere
> between very small and inexistent (there is almost no difference
> between 0.6999 or 0.69999, the result being probably decided by
> whether you have 0.25 or 0.35 on all these 3rd and 4th places),
> whereas if you run into such a freak result you lose 2.3 or 4.6 against
> the competitors (except Aggie, of course, who will smile inscrutably
> when that happens).
>
> With the logarithmic scale the result tends to be decided by the
> lower probabilities, and I have a feeling, that the guesses for
> the various second places (W2, PW, PL) will have a significant
> effect on the result.
>

It actually matters more than what you'd think. Consider a hypothetical
4-team group made up of Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic and San Marino.
Two teams advance.

Say that the probabilities you assign are:

ITA 0.4
DEN 0.3
CZE 0.2999
RSM 0.0001

If Italy and Denmark go through, you score -2.4769. If Italy and CZE go
through, you score -2.47737. Admittedly, not a big difference.

But now, suppose you went more conservative, and assigned RSM a
probability of 0.01

ITA 0.4
DEN 0.3
CZE 0.29
RSM 0.01

If ITA and DEN go through, you score -2.4728. If ITA and CZE go through,
you score -2.52089. That's approximately a 0.05 point difference.
Multiply that by 9 groups, and you get a 0.5 point difference.
Sophisticated Prediction Contests have been won by much smaller margins
than that!

D

[anders t]

Tinker away! At the time I post this reply you still have 13 hours + change
left.

[anders t]

Remember the <STRIKE>titans</STRIKE> deadline:
September 7, 2012, 09:00 CET!

Confirming entries from:
- Jesus Petry
- Cl�ment (Luiz)
- Joachim P
- Anders T at:
http://www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SophPredCont_UEFA_WCQ2014_AT.zip
(pw protected, d/l now - verify later)
- Werner P
- Futbolmetrix

- MH

Less than 12 hours to go... But 7 brave entrants (and the not so brave
Aggie) so far is just awesome. This is, I guess, the toughest SophCon to
date. Toughest in the sense that it has the most figures to predict and
match.

[MH]

On 12-09-06 1:29 PM, anders t wrote:
> Remember the <STRIKE>titans</STRIKE> deadline:
> September 7, 2012, 09:00 CET!
>
> Confirming entries from:
> - Jesus Petry
> - Cl�ment (Luiz)
> - Joachim P
> - Anders T at:
> http://www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SophPredCont_UEFA_WCQ2014_AT.zip
> (pw protected, d/l now - verify later)
> - Werner P
> - Futbolmetrix
> - MH
>
> Less than 12 hours to go... But 7 brave entrants (and the not so brave
> Aggie) so far is just awesome. This is, I guess, the toughest SophCon to
> date. Toughest in the sense that it has the most figures to predict and
> match.
>

Come on Jussi, Binder, Abubakr, Milivella and other sophisticated RSSers
- still time to enter.

>

[Joachim Parsch]

Futbolmetrix schrieb:

> It actually matters more than what you'd think. Consider a hypothetical
> 4-team group made up of Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic and San Marino.
> Two teams advance.
>
> Say that the probabilities you assign are:
>
> ITA 0.4
> DEN 0.3
> CZE 0.2999
> RSM 0.0001
>
> If Italy and Denmark go through, you score -2.4769. If Italy and CZE go
> through, you score -2.47737. Admittedly, not a big difference.
>
> But now, suppose you went more conservative, and assigned RSM a
> probability of 0.01
>
> ITA 0.4
> DEN 0.3
> CZE 0.29
> RSM 0.01
>
> If ITA and DEN go through, you score -2.4728.

0.004 better than above...

> If ITA and CZE go through,
> you score -2.52089.

...while that's 0.05 worse than above. Ok, as long as you don't run into
a freak event you have more to gain than to lose.

But using 0.001 you have

ITA 0.4
DEN 0.3
CZE 0.299

RSM 0.001

...for -2.4765 (DEN, 0.0004 better) or 2.4813 (CZE, 0.004 worse)

But all that is less decisive than, say, guessing Italy's likelihood
better at 0.5, for example:
ITA 0.5
DEN 0.25
CZE 0.2499
RSM 0.0001

That'll score (if Italy qualifies and San Marino doesn't) around -2.36

While the alternative:
ITA 0.5
DEN 0.25
CZE 0.24
RSM 0.01

...scores either -2.36 or -2.42 -- so in the end I guess that these
differences (whether you have your mid-table positions at 0.25, 0.3
or 0.35) will outweigh the differences between ..9, ..99, or ..999.

Though I admit, that using only two decimal places leaves you
vulnerable in scenarios like the one above. But 3 seem enough,
I think, after looking at these numbers.

BTW, if you are interested, I started with 0.01 probabilities,
but switched to 0.001 simply because of gut feeling. Rather
unsophisticated, I guess.

Joachim

[anders t]

And the chic has sung.

Confirming entries from:
- Jesus Petry
- Cl�ment (Luiz)
- Joachim P
- Anders T at:
http://www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/SophPredCont_UEFA_WCQ2014_AT.zip
(pw protected, d/l now - verify later)
- Werner P
- Futbolmetrix
- MH

- Jesper L

+ Aggie

May the most sophisticated entrant win!

[anders t]

The averages of the eight human entries:

___________G6_____G5_____G4_____G3_____GW_____W2_____PL_____PW_
Croatia ,0074 ,0193 ,0640 ,2141 ,3638 ,0364 ,1345 ,1605
Serbia_ ,0074 ,0229 ,0907 ,2698 ,3081 ,0339 ,1392 ,1280
Belgium ,0285 ,0557 ,0965 ,2543 ,2904 ,0349 ,1115 ,1282
Scotlan ,1201 ,1691 ,4437 ,1624 ,0349 ,0083 ,0396 ,0221
Macedon ,4067 ,3651 ,1556 ,0653 ,0017 ,0019 ,0025 ,0013
Wales__ ,4299 ,3680 ,1495 ,0342 ,0012 ,0068 ,0065 ,0041

Italy__ ,0003 ,0004 ,0170 ,0928 ,6476 ,0250 ,0747 ,1422
Denmark ,0003 ,0016 ,1093 ,3461 ,1808 ,0285 ,1652 ,1683
Czechia ,0005 ,0017 ,1350 ,3899 ,1498 ,0319 ,1612 ,1302
Bulgari ,0146 ,1897 ,5548 ,1506 ,0209 ,0096 ,0365 ,0233 MAX(G4)
Armenia ,1849 ,6266 ,1651 ,0203 ,0005 ,0006 ,0011 ,0010
Malta__ ,7994 ,1801 ,0189 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003

Germany ,0003 ,0003 ,0020 ,0100 ,8132 ,0196 ,0435 ,1111 MAX(GW)
Sweden_ ,0004 ,0003 ,1273 ,2472 ,1301 ,0392 ,1850 ,2705
Ireland ,0038 ,0103 ,3621 ,3823 ,0362 ,0170 ,1120 ,0763
Austria ,0048 ,0332 ,4679 ,3504 ,0200 ,0105 ,0728 ,0407
Faroe I ,6093 ,3768 ,0101 ,0026 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003
Kazakhs ,3814 ,5791 ,0307 ,0075 ,0003 ,0003 ,0004 ,0004

Netherl ,0003 ,0003 ,0053 ,0214 ,7549 ,0259 ,0580 ,1339
Turkey_ ,0003 ,0263 ,1361 ,2301 ,1430 ,0246 ,2367 ,2029 MAX(PL)
Hungary ,0028 ,1490 ,3444 ,3201 ,0460 ,0165 ,0778 ,0434
Romania ,0027 ,1379 ,3150 ,3501 ,0464 ,0184 ,0781 ,0515
Estonia ,0653 ,6277 ,1904 ,0758 ,0094 ,0036 ,0201 ,0078
Andorra ,9285 ,0588 ,0088 ,0026 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003

Norway_ ,0106 ,0250 ,0568 ,2829 ,3237 ,0407 ,1732 ,0871
Sloveni ,0254 ,0388 ,0777 ,2898 ,2637 ,0417 ,1767 ,0863
Switzer ,0104 ,0281 ,0563 ,2479 ,3859 ,0397 ,1422 ,0894
Albania ,2566 ,2741 ,3293 ,0771 ,0205 ,0064 ,0239 ,0121
Cyprus_ ,3492 ,3142 ,2318 ,0596 ,0031 ,0087 ,0196 ,0140
Iceland ,3479 ,3198 ,2481 ,0427 ,0032 ,0077 ,0175 ,0132

Portuga ,0003 ,0003 ,0186 ,0867 ,5198 ,0406 ,1122 ,2215
Russia_ ,0003 ,0003 ,0242 ,1174 ,4027 ,0483 ,1858 ,2210
Israel_ ,0074 ,0649 ,2547 ,4981 ,0555 ,0138 ,0687 ,0370 MAX(G3)
N Irela ,0234 ,1382 ,5024 ,2661 ,0214 ,0060 ,0278 ,0147
Azerbai ,2972 ,4963 ,1732 ,0314 ,0003 ,0003 ,0010 ,0003
Luxembo ,6713 ,3000 ,0270 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003

Greece_ ,0041 ,0254 ,0581 ,2080 ,3987 ,0308 ,1580 ,1170
Slovaki ,0041 ,0548 ,1106 ,2944 ,2648 ,0287 ,1364 ,1063
Bosnia- ,0066 ,0337 ,1000 ,2850 ,2998 ,0303 ,1499 ,0948
Lithuan ,0452 ,4126 ,3443 ,1050 ,0169 ,0134 ,0451 ,0176
Latvia_ ,0453 ,3703 ,3867 ,1073 ,0194 ,0135 ,0406 ,0168
Liechte ,8948 ,1032 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003 ,0004 ,0003

England ,0002 ,0007 ,0463 ,0855 ,6657 ,0249 ,0682 ,1085
Montene ,0002 ,0696 ,4092 ,2591 ,0835 ,0261 ,0984 ,0539
Ukraine ,0002 ,0391 ,1969 ,3135 ,1181 ,0297 ,1771 ,1253
Poland_ ,0002 ,0408 ,2060 ,3345 ,1322 ,0340 ,1501 ,1023
Moldova ,0315 ,8187 ,1414 ,0071 ,0003 ,0003 ,0003 ,0004 MAX(G5)
San Mar ,9676 ,0311 ,0002 ,0002 ,0002 ,0002 ,0002 ,0002 MAX(G6)

Spain__ N_/_A ,0002 ,0009 ,0158 ,6749 ,0446 ,0796 ,1839
France_ N_/_A ,0002 ,0011 ,0763 ,3074 ,0540 ,1506 ,4106 MAX(W2,PW)
Belarus N_/_A ,2594 ,2918 ,4033 ,0084 ,0076 ,0223 ,0073
Georgia N_/_A ,4310 ,3361 ,2175 ,0045 ,0049 ,0032 ,0029
Finland N_/_A ,3091 ,3702 ,2872 ,0048 ,0084 ,0135 ,0068

[Jesper Lauridsen]

On 2012-09-07, anders t <anthu_001@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:
> The averages of the eight human entries:
>
> ___________G6_____G5_____G4_____G3_____GW_____W2_____PL_____PW_

> Russia_ ,0003 ,0003 ,0242 ,1174 ,4027 ,0483 ,1858 ,2210

So everyone expects Russia to *win* a playoff (should they get so far)?
Russia always chokes, that should be well known.

[Werner Pichler]

On Wednesday, September 11, 2013 8:08:35 PM UTC+2, anders t wrote:
> STANDINGS PER SEPTEMBER 11 2013
>
>
>
> Rk Entrant Score
>
> 1 WP - 57,3645577

Woohoo - wait, this is based on current standings? So Sweden is in second
place?? And has to remain there for me to win this??? WHAT DID I DO????

Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

On 13-10-17 1:07 PM, anders t wrote:
>>> STANDINGS PER SEPTEMBER 11 2013
>>> Rk Entrant Score
>>> 1 WP - 57,3645577

>>> 2 FM - 62,98912421
>>> 3 JeP - 68,49083494
>>> 4 MH - 70,80191543
>>> 5 JoP - 71,46687073
>>> 6 CL - 75,49538079
>>> 7 JL - 76,53987159
>>> 8 AT - 79,26063821
>>> 9 Aggie -102,7363104
>>> [Bulgaria as W2, the 8 other current #2 given PO 0.5/0.5]
>
>> STANDINGS PER OCTOBER 12 2013
>> Rk Entrant Score
>> 1 WP - 56,23551414
>> 2 MH - 71,135951
>> 3 JoP - 71,47172524
>> 4 JeP - 72,04289106
>> 5 CL - 75,31193136
>> 6 JL - 76,87340499
>> 7 FM - 79,72525906
>> 8 AT - 80,50310858
>> 9 Aggie -102,7363104
>> [Bulgaria as W2, the 8 other current #2 given PO 0.5/0.5]
>
> Rk Entrant Score
> 1 WP - 52,73294196
> .
> .
> 2 JeP - 65,91812341
> .
> 3 JL - 70,03309721
> 4 JoP - 71,20972406
> 5 MH - 71,46007644
> 6 FM - 74,71390329
> 7 AT - 74,72973909
> 8 CL - 79,34953063
> 9 Aggie -102,7363104
>
> Denmark as W2, seeded PO teams with coefficients 0,4-0,6 (lose/win),
> unseeded the other way around. (Any statisticians out there who recommends
> some other tentative simulation of the playoffs?)
>

As far as I can tell, the best I could possibly do would be - 69.476,
and that would involve Portugal, France, Sweden and Croatia winning
(which would need the draw to be kind to me, and pit France and Sweden
vs. Greece and Ukraine). If Iceland win, I am dead.


I don't even want some of that to happen.

3 teams from pot 3 won their groups. One team from pot 4 and one from
pot 6 are still in contention.

6 teams from pot 2 and one from pot 1 eliminated. Not sure how much (if
any) of an improvement seeding solely based on FIFA rankings is as a
predictor.


>

[Werner Pichler]

On Thursday, October 17, 2013 9:07:22 PM UTC+2, anders t wrote:

>
>
> Rk Entrant Score
>
> 1 WP - 52,73294196

Group C is the one I predicted the best :,-(

Ciao,
Werner

[Jesper Lauridsen]

On 2013-10-17, anders t <anthu_001@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:

>> 2 MH - 71,135951
>> 3 JoP - 71,47172524
>> 4 JeP - 72,04289106
>> 5 CL - 75,31193136
>> 6 JL - 76,87340499
>> 7 FM - 79,72525906
>> 8 AT - 80,50310858
>> 9 Aggie -102,7363104

> 3 JL - 70,03309721
> 4 JoP - 71,20972406
> 5 MH - 71,46007644
> 6 FM - 74,71390329
> 7 AT - 74,72973909
> 8 CL - 79,34953063
> 9 Aggie -102,7363104

I've found my form now and will be leaving you all in my dust.

[Clément]

"Werner Pichler" escreveu:

I'm glad for Sweden, but also truly sorry for Austria.

My best groups, disregarding the playoff teams:

1. H - really easy, even though I was completely agnostic between Montenegro
and Ukraine.
2. C
3. G - I had Bosnia and Greece at equal odds of winning the group, which
feels good considering they ended level on points.

My best score would be if France, Sweden, Portugal, and Croatia won the
playoffs (-76.07, unless I made a mistake).

Whatever happens, Iceland will be my worst team, together with Turkey (that
I had Turkey at minimum chance to finish fourth shows how little I rated
Hungary and Romania).

Of course, having Iceland in the playoffs is much better than winning the
SPC (and that is saying something!).

My best teams were 1. England, 2. Netherlands, 3. Italy and Germany. Not
getting any special prizes for getting those correctly, I assume.

Abraço,

Luiz Mello

[Futbolmetrix]

On 10/17/2013 3:07 PM, anders t wrote:
> 6 FM - 74,71390329

And that's more or less what my final score will be, since I basically
didn't differentiate at all between the winning and losing playoff
probabilities.

My score by group:

A: 6.58
B: 6.13
C: 4.68
D: 7.18 (Romania hurting me)
E: 11.30 (Iceland and Norway not doing me any good)
F: 20.87!!! (Azerbaijian pipping NIR for 4th place really killed me here)

G: 6.31
H: 6.17
I: 5.49


In looking at my predictions, I realize I was not bullish enough on the
favorites: Germany only 65% of winning the group? Netherlands 55%?

[Jesus Petry]

On Thursday, October 17, 2013 4:07:22 PM UTC-3, anders t wrote:
> Rk Entrant Score
> 1 WP - 52,73294196

> .
> .
> 2 JeP - 65,91812341
> .

> 3 JL - 70,03309721
> 4 JoP - 71,20972406
> 5 MH - 71,46007644
> 6 FM - 74,71390329
> 7 AT - 74,72973909
> 8 CL - 79,34953063
> 9 Aggie -102,7363104

Please recheck. I put the numbers in my copy of the sheet and got
a sum of -66,14126696

Tchau!
Jesus Petry

[Jesper Lauridsen]

On 2013-10-18, Futbolmetrix <futbol...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On 10/17/2013 3:07 PM, anders t wrote:
>> 6 FM - 74,71390329
>
> And that's more or less what my final score will be, since I basically
> didn't differentiate at all between the winning and losing playoff
> probabilities.

My picks translates to the following probabilities for winning a
playoff (second number is chance of being in a playoff in the first
place):

Croatia 57,69% 18,91%
Sweden 64,56% 30,98%
Romania 45,40% 10,99%
Iceland 50,00% 0,02%
Portugal67,56% 33,91%
Greece 48,18% 22,83%
Ukraine 34,98% 38,45%
France 82,34% 68,01%

So best for my score:

Portugal - Sweden: Portugal, but it's almost a wash.
Ukraine - France: France! This one is big.
Greece - Romania: Romania.
Iceland - Croatia: Croatia.

Best: -69,0941646488
Worst: -71,8095132209

[Jesus Petry]

On Thursday, November 21, 2013 5:01:48 PM UTC-2, anders t wrote:
> What a glorious landslide victory for Werner!

Congrats!

Tchau!
Jesus Petry

[Futbolmetrix]

On 11/21/2013 2:01 PM, anders t wrote:
> FINAL RESULT!
>
> Rk Entrant Score
> 1 WP - 51,23888500
> 2 JeP - 66,14126696
> 3 JL - 69,09416465
> 4 MH - 70,10045054
> 5 JoP - 70,84886737
> 6 AT - 72,41887884
> 7 FM - 74,76502706
> 8 CL - 77,89932524
> 9 Aggie -102,73631040
>
> Avvie - 60,52110922

>
> What a glorious landslide victory for Werner!
>

Congratulations, and welcome for a third time to the Hall of Sophistication!



Hall of Sophistication:
1) WC 2002: MH
2) UCL 2003-2004, Group Stage: MMcC
3) Euro 2004: Voros McCracken
4) UCL 2004-2005, Group Stage: Colin
5) UCL 2004-2005, Knockout Round: Renato Guadagnolo
6) Libertadores 2005: Agnostic
7) UCL 2005-2006, Group Stage: Gronaldo
8) EPL 2005-2006: Werner Pichler
9) UCL 2005-2006, Knockout Round: ruud
10) Libertadores 2006: Jesus Petry
11) WC 2006, Group Stages: Jimmy Feathertone
12) WC 2006, Overall: Jimmy Featherstone
13) UCL 2006-2007, Group Stage: Jussi Uosukainen
14) EPL 2006-2007: 7h@ch
15) UCL 2006-2007, Final Stage: Jesus Petry
16) Libertadores 2007 : La Violeta
17) Copa America 2007: Tim Hooper
18) Asian Cup 2007: Futbolmetrix
19) UCL 2007-2008 Group Stage: Jesus Petry
20) EPL 2007-2008: Jussi Uosukainen
21) Serie A 2007-2008: 7h@ch
22) La Liga 2007-2008: Jesus Petry
23) UCL 2007-2008, Knockout round: Anders T
24) Libertadores 2008: MH
25) Euro 2008: ruud
25) UCL 2008-2009, Group Stage: Matthias Muehlich
26) UCL 2008-2009, Knockout round: Anders T
27) UCL 2009-2010, Group Stage: Binder Dundat
28) UCL 2009-2010, Knockout round: Binder Dundat
29) WC 2010, Group Stages: AQB
30) WC 2010, Overall: AQB
31) UCL 2010-2011, Knockout Round: Jussi Uosukainen
32) Euro 2012 qualifiers: Futbolmetrix
33) UCL 2011-2012: Group Stage: Abubakr
34) Europa League 2011-2012, Knockout Round: Werner Pichler
35) UCL 2011-2012, Knockout Round: MH
36) Euro 2012: Anders T
37) Olympic Games 2012: Anders T
38) UCL 2012-2013, Group stage: Clement
39) Europa League 2012-2013, Group stage: MH
40) Europa League 2012-2013, Knockout Round: Binder Dundat
41) Champions' League 2012-1013, Knockout Round: Binder Dundat
42) UEFA WCQ, 2012-2014: Werner Pichler



Standings:

Jesus Petry, Anders T, MH, Binder Dundat 4

Jussi Uosukainen, Werner Pichler 3

7h@ch, Jimmy Featherstone, ruud, AQB, Futbolmetrix 2

MMcC, Voros McCracken, Colin, Renato Guadagnolo, Agnostic, Gronaldo,
La Violeta, Tim Hooper, Matthias Muehlich, Binder Dundat, Abubakr,
Clement 1

[Werner Pichler]

On Thursday, November 21, 2013 8:01:48 PM UTC+1, anders t wrote:
> FINAL RESULT!
>
> Rk Entrant Score
>
> 1 WP - 51,23888500
> 2 JeP - 66,14126696
> 3 JL - 69,09416465
> 4 MH - 70,10045054
> 5 JoP - 70,84886737
> 6 AT - 72,41887884
> 7 FM - 74,76502706
> 8 CL - 77,89932524
> 9 Aggie -102,73631040
>
> Avvie - 60,52110922
>
>
> What a glorious landslide victory for Werner!

Thanks for running this!

As there were no really big surprises this time around, I suppose I put some
good probabilities on some 'safe' picks? (e.g. France qualifying through
play-offs)

Ciao,
Werner

[Clément]

"Werner Pichler" escreveu:

> On Thursday, November 21, 2013 8:01:48 PM UTC+1, anders t wrote:
>> What a glorious landslide victory for Werner!

Congrats!

> Thanks for running this!
>
> As there were no really big surprises this time around, I suppose I put
> some
> good probabilities on some 'safe' picks? (e.g. France qualifying through
> play-offs)

I think I was definitely hurt by some "fancy" picks.

Iceland must have been a strong factor for everyone. I, for one, had them as
high as 4th in the group, and predicted zero (well, 0.0001) for every higher
outcome.

The following worst performers for me were Turkey and Norway, neither of
whom I couldn't see falling under 3rd place.

My best team, not considering the obvious group winners and bottom feeders,
was Israel. Most predictable 3rd place finish in the story of sports?

My personal favorite prediction was giving Bosnia and Greece equal odds to
top the group (40-40, with the remaining 20 going to Slovakia), just to see
them finish level on points.

Abra�o,

Luiz Mello

[Jesper Lauridsen]

On 2013-11-22, Clément <lcmello...@terra.com.br> wrote:
>
> I think I was definitely hurt by some "fancy" picks.
>
> Iceland must have been a strong factor for everyone. I, for one, had them as
> high as 4th in the group, and predicted zero (well, 0.0001) for every higher
> outcome.
>
> The following worst performers for me were Turkey and Norway, neither of
> whom I couldn't see falling under 3rd place.

Below is my list from best to worst. Denmark is third lowest, but any
"worst" second would have been down there. 0.07 is the highest I allocated
to any team for that finish (Denmark at 0.05).

-0,0519250729 Andorra
-0,0519250729 San Marino
-0,1053605157 Germany
-0,1625189295 Liechtenstein
-0,1625189295 Spain
-0,2231435513 Netherlands
-0,3566749439 Italy
-0,3566749439 Malta
-0,3566749439 Moldova
-0,510658971 Faroe Islands
-0,5108256238 England
-0,5108256238 Estonia
-0,5109923043 Kazakhstan
-0,5798184953 France
-0,5978370008 Luxembourg
-0,5983826041 Armenia
-0,6919479 Bulgaria
-0,6931471806 Cyprus
-0,9162907319 Macedonia
-0,9162907319 Scotland
-0,9162907319 Switzerland
-0,99479296 Israel
-1,0224849283 Austria
-1,0472539964 Hungary
-1,0498221245 Russia
-1,0788096614 Ireland
-1,096614286 Georgia
-1,1120015258 Belarus
-1,202307525 Czechia
-1,2039728043 Bosnia-Herce
-1,2039728043 Finland
-1,2049733047 Slovenia
-1,2056408614 Azerbaijan
-1,2385642491 Belgium
-1,3862943611 Lithuania
-1,3862943611 Montenegro
-1,3862943611 Ukraine
-1,3862943611 Wales
-1,4271163556 Serbia
-1,4735966895 Portugal
-1,6094379124 Albania
-1,6094379124 Latvia
-1,6094379124 Slovakia
-1,6149530931 Turkey
-2,2072749132 Greece
-2,2090947499 Sweden
-2,2154903861 Croatia
-2,302585093 N Ireland
-2,302585093 Poland
-2,8134107168 Romania
-2,9957322736 Denmark
-3,5065578973 Norway
-9,210340372 Iceland

[Futbolmetrix]

On 11/22/2013 4:07 PM, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
>
> Below is my list from best to worst. Denmark is third lowest, but any
> "worst" second would have been down there. 0.07 is the highest I allocated
> to any team for that finish (Denmark at 0.05).
>
> -0,0519250729 Andorra
> -0,0519250729 San Marino

...
> -9,210340372 Iceland

Here is mine. Now that I look at it, I'm kicking myself for my
unsophistication. Basically, if I hadn't screwed up the ranking of
Azerbaijan and N. Ireland, I would have won the whole thing.



Andorra -0.000900405
San Marino -0.000900405
Moldova -0.002002003
Liechtenstein -0.010050336
Malta -0.105360516
Armenia -0.119008787
Luxembourg -0.223143551
Germany -0.430782916
Spain -0.510825624
Bulgaria -0.515000995
Netherlands -0.598018835
Israel -0.635255702
Scotland -0.653926467
Ireland -0.673344553
Faroe Islands -0.693147181
Kazakhstan -0.693147181
Austria -0.693547261
Estonia -0.776963667
Macedonia -0.798507696
Wales -0.820980552
Italy -0.867500568
Cyprus -0.891598119
Georgia -0.916040763
Switzerland -0.916290732
Russia -0.916790857
England -0.94160854
Latvia -1.016387348
Czechia -1.049822124
Belgium -1.078809661
Slovakia -1.078809661
Lithuania -1.078809661
Bosnia-Herce -1.203972804
Serbia -1.220779923
Belarus -1.272965676
Slovenia -1.347073648
Hungary -1.386294361
Finland -1.386294361
Montenegro -1.387895642
France -1.412638336
Sweden -1.504627548
Poland -1.514127733
Albania -1.609437912
Portugal -1.779040697
Turkey -1.897119985
Greece -1.928266714
Croatia -2.014403146
Ukraine -2.326877786
Norway -2.407945609
Romania -2.526979426
Denmark -3.473768074
Iceland -4.135166557
N Ireland -8.111728083
Azerbaijan -9.210340372

[Werner Pichler]

On Friday, November 22, 2013 10:22:34 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
>
>
> Here is mine. Now that I look at it, I'm kicking myself for my
> unsophistication. Basically, if I hadn't screwed up the ranking of
> Azerbaijan and N. Ireland, I would have won the whole thing.
>

> N Ireland -8.111728083
> Azerbaijan -9.210340372

Even two perfect zeroes here wouldn't have been enough to win though!

Looking at the scores Anders posted I'm honestly shaking my head in disbelief...
I don't think I've ever been that, erm, sophisticated, before. Some of
it was sheer blind luck - I gave Iceland a higher probability to finish in
the playoffs (0.05) than to finish third (0.005)... a tenfold error I didn't
even realise until now - at the time I was just glad the numbers added up...


Ciao,
Werner

[Futbolmetrix]

On 11/22/2013 4:22 PM, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On 11/22/2013 4:07 PM, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
>>
>> Below is my list from best to worst. Denmark is third lowest, but any
>> "worst" second would have been down there. 0.07 is the highest I
>> allocated
>> to any team for that finish (Denmark at 0.05).
>>
>> -0,0519250729 Andorra
>> -0,0519250729 San Marino
> ...
>> -9,210340372 Iceland
>
> Here is mine. Now that I look at it, I'm kicking myself for my
> unsophistication. Basically, if I hadn't screwed up the ranking of
> Azerbaijan and N. Ireland, I would have won the whole thing.
>

Actually, that still wouldn't have been enough to beat Werner. I'm
curious about what his entry was like.

D