The John De Lange European Cups Sophisticated Prediction Contest: 2022-2023 Knockout Round

Futbolmetrix

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Feb 10, 2023, 12:13:45 PM2/10/23

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Download spreadsheets here:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/10/european-cups-2022-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/

Futbolmetrix

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Feb 14, 2023, 8:48:12 AM2/14/23

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On Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:13:45 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> Download spreadsheets here:
>
> https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/10/european-cups-2022-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/

Last few hours to send your entries for the UCL SophCon
Entries so far:

Agnostic
Futbolmetrix
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
Anders T
MH

Futbolmetrix

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Feb 14, 2023, 8:57:56 AM2/14/23

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Werner

Futbolmetrix

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Feb 14, 2023, 9:30:33 AM2/14/23

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Betfair

Jesper Lauridsen

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Feb 14, 2023, 4:42:48 PM2/14/23

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I sent mine yesterday.

Futbolmetrix

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Feb 14, 2023, 4:47:09 PM2/14/23

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On Tuesday, February 14, 2023 at 4:42:48 PM UTC-5, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

> I sent mine yesterday.

Yes, got it. Make sure to send to the futbolmetrix@yahoo address

Futbolmetrix

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Feb 16, 2023, 9:32:35 AM2/16/23

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On Friday, February 10, 2023 at 12:13:45 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

> Download spreadsheets here:
>
> https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/10/european-cups-2022-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest-knockout-round/

Updated list of participants:

UCL
----------

Agnostic
Futbolmetrix
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)
Anders T
MH

Werner Pichler
Betfair
Jack C (@thirteen_nil)
Jesper
Collective Consciousness

UEL
------

Agnostic
Futbolmetrix
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

MH
Werner Pichler
Jack C (@thirteen_nil)
Jesper
Anders T

UECL
--------

Agnostic
Futbolmetrix
FiveThirtyEight
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix)
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix)

Jack C (@thirteen_nil)
MH
Jesper

Futbolmetrix

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Feb 17, 2023, 11:34:05 AM2/17/23

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On Thursday, February 16, 2023 at 9:32:35 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Intermediate standings after today's matches

Champions League:
-------------------------------
FiveThirtyEight -3.740
MH -3.742
Anders T -3.794
Jesper -3.876
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -3.928
Agnostic -4.159
Collective Consciousness -4.241
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -4.422
Futbolmetrix -4.527
Betfair -4.922
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -4.922
Werner Pichler -5.147

Europa League
-------------------------
Agnostic -11.090
Anders T -13.482
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -14.538
Futbolmetrix -15.374
Collective Consciousness -15.443
MH -15.540
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.521
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -16.666
Jesper -16.670
Werner Pichler -16.931
FiveThirtyEight -17.946

Conference League
-------------------------------
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -10.419
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -10.969
Agnostic -11.090
FiveThirtyEight -11.446
MH -11.612
Futbolmetrix -11.729
Collective Consciousness -11.746
Werner Pichler -12.284
Jesper -13.297
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -15.589

Master spreadsheets available here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

Futbolmetrix

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Mar 17, 2023, 10:15:29 AM3/17/23

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On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 11:34:05 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Thursday, February 16, 2023 at 9:32:35 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
>
> Intermediate standings after today's matches
>

Standings after the Round of 16 in all competitions:

Champions League:
--------------------------------
Werner Pichler -6.980
Futbolmetrix -7.259
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -7.615
MH -7.758
Collective Consciousness -7.882
Jesper -8.230
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -8.230
Betfair -8.230
FiveThirtyEight -8.290
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -8.399
Anders T -9.340
Agnostic -11.090

Europa League
------------------------
MH -17.748
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -19.132
Futbolmetrix -20.230
Collective Consciousness -20.578
Jesper -20.590
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -21.017
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -21.596
Agnostic -22.181
FiveThirtyEight -22.260
Werner Pichler -24.102
Anders T -29.410

FiveThirtyEight finishing below Agnostic would be ... interesting

Conference League
------------------------------
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -17.458
Werner Pichler -17.800
Futbolmetrix -18.176
Collective Consciousness -18.363
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -18.430
Jesper -18.612
FiveThirtyEight -19.060
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -19.496
MH -21.283
Agnostic -22.181

Werner, Jack C and I capture 8 of the 9 podium positions so far. First place? Who cares?

>
> Master spreadsheets available here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

Still there.

Futbolmetrix

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Apr 21, 2023, 2:55:08 PM4/21/23

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On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 10:15:29 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 11:34:05 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the QFs

Champions League
------------------------------
Werner Pichler -12.286
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -13.052
Futbolmetrix -13.105
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -13.574
Betfair -13.574
Collective Consciousness -13.595
Jesper -14.229
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -14.383
MH -14.398
FiveThirtyEight -14.473
Anders T -14.951
Agnostic -16.636

Europa League
------------------------
MH -21.810
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -23.643
Futbolmetrix -24.152
Collective Consciousness -25.080
Jesper -25.326
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -25.970
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -26.077
FiveThirtyEight -27.502
Agnostic -27.726
Werner Pichler -28.048
Anders T -45.122

Conference League
------------------------------
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -21.758
Werner Pichler -22.367
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -22.592
Futbolmetrix -22.734
Collective Consciousness -22.848
FiveThirtyEight -23.407
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -23.503
Jesper -24.081
MH -25.869
Agnostic -27.726

Futbolmetrix

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May 19, 2023, 4:29:07 PM5/19/23

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On Friday, April 21, 2023 at 2:55:08 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 10:15:29 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Friday, February 17, 2023 at 11:34:05 AM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> Standings after the QFs

Standings after the semifinals:

UCL
------
Werner Pichler -15.270
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -15.322
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -16.251
Betfair -16.251
Collective Consciousness -16.301
Futbolmetrix -16.314
Jesper -16.819
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -16.854
FiveThirtyEight -16.909
MH -17.492
Anders T -17.910
Agnostic -19.408

Very close at the top between Werner and Jack C, nobody in the Hall of Shame.

UEL
-----------
MH -25.029
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -27.030
Futbolmetrix -27.508
Jesper -28.485
Collective Consciousness -28.870
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -29.593
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -29.794
Agnostic -30.498
FiveThirtyEight -30.942
Werner Pichler -35.890
Anders T -61.538

MH with a commanding lead, Anders, Werner and FiveThirtyEight in the Hall of Shame

UECL
---------
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -25.274
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -27.562
Collective Consciousness -27.671.
FiveThirtyEight -27.847
Werner Pichler -27.902
Jesper -28.030
Futbolmetrix -28.177
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -29.903
Agnostic -30.498
MH -33.436

Jack C again doing very well, MH can't carry his UEL form into the Conference League and falls into the Hall of Shame

You can download the master spreadsheet here:
https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

Futbolmetrix

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Jun 12, 2023, 7:38:29 AM6/12/23

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On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Final SophCon standings:

Champions League:
-------------------------------
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
Werner Pichler -16.656
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
Betfair -17.382
Collective Consciousness -17.494
Futbolmetrix -17.578
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
FiveThirtyEight -17.902
Jesper -18.206
MH -18.878
Anders T -19.209
Agnostic -20.794

Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring, while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability Scoring is by far the best method, and truly reflects predicting skills.

Europa League
-----------------------
MH -26.415
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
Futbolmetrix -28.878
Jesper -29.871
Collective Consciousness -30.208
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
Agnostic -31.885
FiveThirtyEight -32.192
Werner Pichler -37.276
Anders T -62.924

MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.

Conference League
------------------------------
Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
Collective Consciousness -29.022
FiveThirtyEight -29.091
Werner Pichler -29.289
Jesper -29.416
Futbolmetrix -29.445
ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
Agnostic -31.885
MH -34.823

Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.

Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual Wordpress site.

> https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

anders t

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Jun 12, 2023, 2:57:16 PM6/12/23

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Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:

>Europa League
>-----------------------
>Anders T -62.924

I put "all of my money" on the winner of Barca and Man United...

--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

Werner Pichler

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Jun 13, 2023, 5:42:26 AM6/13/23

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On Monday, June 12, 2023 at 1:38:29 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, May 19, 2023 at 4:29:07 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
>
> Final SophCon standings:
>
> Champions League:
> -------------------------------
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -16.319
> Werner Pichler -16.656
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -17.382
> Betfair -17.382
> Collective Consciousness -17.494
> Futbolmetrix -17.578
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -17.861
> FiveThirtyEight -17.902
> Jesper -18.206
> MH -18.878
> Anders T -19.209
> Agnostic -20.794
>
> Very tight race, Werner would have come out on top had we used Brier scoring,

Mean Squared Error is where it's at, that's what I always say.

> while yours truly would be in first place had we used Ranked Probability Scoring (RPS). Needless to say, Ranked Probability
> Scoring is by far the best method, and truly reflects predicting skills.
>
> Europa League
> -----------------------
> MH -26.415
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -28.151
> Futbolmetrix -28.878
> Jesper -29.871
> Collective Consciousness -30.208
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -30.944
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.206
> Agnostic -31.885
> FiveThirtyEight -32.192
> Werner Pichler -37.276
> Anders T -62.924
>
> MH takes this home convincingly (regardless of scoring method), embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a
> couple of others.

And to think that I used to ace the Europa League predictions. Don't even know where I went
so spectacularly wrong. Probably Barcelona and Man United, like Anders (and 538 I wager).

> Conference League
> ------------------------------
> Jack C (@thirteen_nil) -26.762
> TransferMarkt (by Futbolmetrix) -28.778
> Collective Consciousness -29.022
> FiveThirtyEight -29.091
> Werner Pichler -29.289
> Jesper -29.416
> Futbolmetrix -29.445
> ClubElo (by Futbolmetrix) -31.004
> Agnostic -31.885
> MH -34.823
>
> Another win for Jack C (again, regardless of methods). MH falls from the altar of first place to the dust of the Hall of Shame.
>
>
>
> Thanks to all for playing. I will update the master spreadsheet and write some additional summary comments on the usual
> Wordpress site.

A question since I'm not very sure of the math - we obviously see lower scores in the CL predictions
because there were fewer rounds and fewer matches, but if we're correcting for that - is the CL
inherently easier to predict than EL and ECL? I'd think so.

Ciao,
Werner

>
> > https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/02/17/european-cups-2022-2023-knockout-stage-list-of-participants-and-master-spreadsheet/

MH

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Jun 13, 2023, 3:13:34 PM6/13/23

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Remarkably bad considering I had West Ham at 0.2 to win the whole thing,
and Fiorentina at reasonable odds to make the final. Not obvious to me
where I was most wrong.

MH

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Jun 13, 2023, 3:30:08 PM6/13/23

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On 2023-06-12 05:38, Futbolmetrix wrote:

I am confused. I looked at you master sheet and the scores on it don't
seem to correspond to the scores above. What am I missing?

Futbolmetrix

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Jun 13, 2023, 4:15:29 PM6/13/23

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Did you update the master sheet? These should be the updated versions:

UCL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/t1342w4191gxevt/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UCL2023_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0
UEL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/x5b9oghmu1x4xrc/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UEL2023_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0
UECL: https://www.dropbox.com/s/flzgeu1orizjeel/SophisticatedPredictionContest_UECL2023_Knockout_MASTER.xlsx?dl=0

Futbolmetrix

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Jun 13, 2023, 4:17:20 PM6/13/23

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What killed you (and many others) were Basel and Lech Poznan

Futbolmetrix

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Jun 13, 2023, 4:39:52 PM6/13/23

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On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 5:42:26 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

> A question since I'm not very sure of the math - we obviously see lower scores in the CL predictions
> because there were fewer rounds and fewer matches, but if we're correcting for that - is the CL
> inherently easier to predict than EL and ECL? I'd think so.
>

Exp(log score/number of participants) = geometric mean of probabilities assigned to the even that actually took place.

Collective Consciousness' geomean scores:
UCL: 0.335
UEL: 0.284
UECL: 0.298

Yes, this year it was easier to predict the Champions League relative to the other two competitions. I have the data and can easily check for previous years, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this is broadly true in other years as well (even though there can be exceptions).

I should note that Aggie's geomean scores are 0.272 (UCL) and 0.265 (UEL/UECL), so our collective wisdom is not all that better than Aggie...

Futbolmetrix

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Jun 26, 2023, 4:18:33 PM6/26/23

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On Monday, June 12, 2023 at 1:38:29 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:

> Agnostic -31.885
> FiveThirtyEight -32.192

> embarrassing Hall of Shame for FiveThirtyEight and a couple of others.

The embarrassment was too much to take for FiveThirtyEight, and they have retired their club soccer prediction model :-(

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/

Werner Pichler

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Jun 27, 2023, 7:20:04 AM6/27/23

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538 is in turmoil, following budget cuts and layoffs. Nate Silver himself will leave soon
or has already left. All their sports predictions have been discontinued.
Blame Disney.

Ciao,
Werner

Futbolmetrix

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Jun 27, 2023, 9:29:36 AM6/27/23

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On Tuesday, June 27, 2023 at 1:20:04 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:

> > The embarrassment was too much to take for FiveThirtyEight, and they have retired their club soccer prediction model :-(
> >
> > https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/global-club-rankings/
> 538 is in turmoil, following budget cuts and layoffs. Nate Silver himself will leave soon
> or has already left. All their sports predictions have been discontinued.

What, you mean that they are not shutting down because of the embarrassment of making the Hall of Shame? (Yeah, I knew that was the reason...)

> Blame Disney.

Always.