(R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 12

[Lléo]

We're now two-thirds into the South American path towards Qatar 2022. Six rounds
to go, six points separate the seven teams from 3rd to 9th place, everyone has
three home and three away games remaining (except Brasil and Argentina, who still
have that game in São Paulo pending). Bolivia and Chile show how much of a boost
one can get from two wins in a row. Colombia draws for the umpteenth time after
a good game against Ecuador. Uruguay is once more blown away in a derby, this time
against a Brazilian team that seems to have found again some spark, and Argentina
keeps their 24-game long unbeaten run ongoing.

Bolivia 4-0 Paraguay

A complete blowout at Estadio Hernando Siles, in La Paz. Ramallo opened count
with a nice long distance shot in the 20th minute. Paraguay could have drawn
level four minute later due to a handball by Sagredo inside the penalty area,
but Sanabria missed the ensuing penalty kick. In the second half the floodgates
cracked, with goals by Villaroel (53rd minute), Ábrego (83rd) and Fernandez
(93rd). Paraguay had timid chances here and there but, after the penalty miss,
it never really looked like they could put up a fight.

This is Bolivia's second WCQ win in a row, something that may appear unremarkable,
but that is actually quite rare: it doesn't happen since 1993 (back then they
actually won a whooping five in a row, their four home games plus the away one
at Venezuela). As for Paraguay, it doesn't feel like they can put anything of a
challenge down this final stretch.

Colombia 0-0 Ecuador

VAR giveth, VAR taketh. Or, rather, VAR taketh and VAR taketh further. This
was the tale at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla, where Colombia and
Ecuador put up a game that deserved goals. Quite a number of scoring chances
by both sides and some good goalkeeping work by Ospina and Dominguez. Ecuador
had a penalty for them in the 73rd minute, but VAR called it back due to
offsides in the play. Colombia raised the pressure and eventually Mina scored
what could have been the winning goal in the 90+9th minute. But the ball
touched his hand slightly and clearly involuntarily, so the ref had no choice
but to call it back with VAR assistance. Quite a rollercoaster there.

Not a bad result for Ecuador, especially after the loss to Venezuela. They
keep a healthy distance from 6th place. 7th draw in 12 rounds for Colombia,
who really should start to put away games they have the upper hand.

Argentina 1-0 Peru

Another good performance by Argentina at Estadio Monumental de Nuñez, in Buenos
Aires, even if not as dominant as in the previous round. Argentina made most of
the play and earned a deserved win over a hard working but limited Peruvian side.
The hosts completely dominated the game in the first half, but could only pull
a thin 1-0 advantage from a goal by Lautaro Martinez in the 42nd minute. In the
second half they took their foot out of the gas pedal and almost paid dearly for
it: in the 64th minute, Emiliano Martinez brought down Farfán in the box and the
ref pointed to the spot. Yotún missed Peru's first penalty in this WCQ cycle
though, shooting it over the bar and giving up what seemed to be Peru's only way
back into the match.

Argentina remains unbeaten, their last loss was in Copa America 2019 semifinals
at Mineirão, 2-0 against Brasil. They are playing good football and are almost
over the line. Peru, second from bottom, have a lot of work in their hands if
they still intend to put up a challenge.

Chile 3-0 Venezuela

A comfortable win by Chile over Venezuela at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo,
in Santiago. Two headers by Pulgar in the first half and a nice clincher by
Brereton in the second settled matters for a Chilean team that has shown signs
of improvement. Venezuela could do little against the red wave over them.

Chile steadily closes the gap to the playoff spot, something that seemed
unlikely just a couple of rounds ago. Whether this late charge will be for
real or not remains to be seen, but it sure would make things interesting
in this final stretch. Venezuela essentially only plays for dignity now.

Brasil 4-1 Uruguay

Another blowout, this time in the derby at Arena da Amazonia in Manaus. Brasil
raised their game several levels from the sloppy performances in the last couple
of rounds and made Uruguay pay dearly for it. Neymar, in particular, put out a
man of the match performance, scoring the opener and then giving two assists to
Raphinha (his first two goals for Brasil, on his first start) and one to Gabriel
Barbosa (which had to be confirmed by VAR due to suspicion of offsides). Luis
Suárez scored Uruguay's consolation goal, this round's only away goal, on nice
free kick on Ederson's lower left corner, and again the Uruguayos have to thank
Muslera for avoiding a far worse scoreline.

It's been a while since Brasil last put out a performance as good as this one. It
felt like they were on sleepy mode for the last few months, but today they raised
their game and gave the Manauara crowd something to cheer about. Uruguay, on the
other hand, seems dispirited. It is one thing to lose when away to Argentina and
Brasil, but these were two bailes with a 1-7 aggregate score. They must find their
spark again, for there are a rough two rounds coming up for them, or else risk
putting in jeopardy a WC berth that seemed to be coming their way.


Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd]

1 Brasil 31 11 10 1 0 26 4 22
2 Argentina 25 11 7 4 0 19 6 13
3 Ecuador 17 12 5 2 5 20 13 7
4 Colombia 16 12 3 7 2 16 16 0
5 Uruguay 16 12 4 4 4 14 17 -3
6 Chile 13 12 3 4 5 14 14 0
7 Bolivia 12 12 3 3 6 17 25 -8
8 Paraguay 12 12 2 6 4 9 17 -8
9 Peru 11 12 3 2 7 10 19 -9
10 Venezuela 7 12 2 1 9 8 22 -14


Next round to be played in November 11th. In brackets below, the results of
these games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round
robin ones so far):

Uruguay - Argentina (0-0, 3-2, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-0). Matchday 10: Argentina 3-0 Uruguay

To be fair to Uruguay, the table altered by Covid delays did them no favors,
making them play three derbies in a row. Morale seems to be on polar opposites
in each bank of Rio de la Plata: Uruguay comes from some poor results and
dropped to 5th place, though their previous homework keeps them thick in the
hunt for a WC spot. Argentina have been playing very well since their Copa America
victory, it really was an amazing confidence booster for them. But then again,
derbies are derbies. In Montevideo, I guess Uruguay are expected to put up a
bolder performance than they've been doing. I'll make it a 1-1 draw (in soph-terms:
Uruguay 0.35, draw 0.30, Argentina 0.35).

Peru - Bolivia (2-1, 1-1, 1-0, 4-1, 1-1, 2-1). Matchday 10: Bolivia 1-0 Peru

It would be really, really interesting if Bolivia could string a sequence of
good results and join the battle for a spot. But to do that they have to get
some away points, which seems a tall order for them. Whoever wins puts some
pressure on the playoff spot, seeing as how both Colombia and Uruguay face
difficult fixtures on this round. Although I'd like to see Bolivia challenge,
I think Peru will have the edge here. Peru to win 2-0 (in soph-terms: Peru 0.50,
draw 0.30, Bolivia 0.20).

Brasil - Colombia (2-1, n/a, 0-0, 1-0, n/a). Matchday 10: Colombia 0-0 Brasil

This is usually a tough, close game, but one that tends to go Brasil's way. At
home, the hosts might settle qualification mathematically. For the visitors, any
point they get will be a good result. I think Brasil wins, let's make it a 2-0
(in soph-terms: Brasil 0.60, draw 0.25, Colombia 0.15).

Paraguay - Chile (2-1, 1-2, 0-2, 2-1, 1-0, 2-1). Matchday 10: Chile 2-0 Paraguay

Chile made full use of their last two home games to rejoin a qualification race
that seemed to be going gradually farther away. They'll face a Paraguayan team
that equally needs a win to keep challenging. But while Chile seems to be on the
way up, Paraguay seems to go down. This is a very underwhelming team that has
the joint worst home record so far in the WCQ (7 points, just like Venezuela
and Peru), with only one win from six games at Estadio Defensores del Chaco.
This is another game in which whoever wins puts pressure on the above contenders,
given Uruguay and Colombia's tough challenges, but on recent form, I think Chile
will have the edge. Chile to win, 0-1 (in soph-terms: Paraguay 0.30, draw 0.35,
Chile 0.35).

Ecuador - Venezuela (3-0, 2-0, 0-1, 2-0, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 10: Venezuela 2-1 Ecuador

A golden opportunity for Ecuador to further their qualification bid, at home
against the bottom side. If they don't screw it up, that'll be a big step towards
Qatar. Can't see Venezuela pulling the upset here. Ecuador to win 2-0 (in soph-terms:
Ecuador 0.70, draw 0.20, Venezuela 0.10)


--
Lléo