Can any team be this year's Leicester ? [Some R implied]

[MH]

(or Wolfsburg, Kaiserslautern, Hellas Verona, Montpellier etc - teams
that unexpectedly came from nowhere to win championships)

I was thinking about this at the beginning of the season, but in the top
leagues, the prospects of the established order being upset seem pretty
dismal already. I had hopes of Everton and Leicester, for instance, but
in spite of strengthening their team (Richarlison, Bernard, Zouma,
Digne, Mina) the former are already quite far behind. They did play
very well against Arsenal and should really have won. Watford were also
looking intriguing, but now have been brought to earth. And of course
the most important factor is that Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool are
off to flying starts and it seems improbable that all three of them
would have the wheels fall off this year.

Same in Spain, today's results notwithstanding. And Italy looks like
being dominated by the usual suspects, with Bayern and PSG unlikely to
be challenged, and if they are challenged, it will be by teams like
Lyon, Marseille, and Dortmund (especially now that Hertha have been
found out)

So which leagues can we look at for unexpected winners? Probably not
Portugal (though Braga are hanging in there), nor the Netherlands (look
at the table). Perhaps Belgium (Genk doing well, but they are hardly
rank outsiders), though it is early days, and the format allows the
Anderlecht/Bruges cartel to make up a lot of ground in the championship
round.

Russia does have a couple of outsiders high in the table right now, but
still behind Zenit. Turkey, only six games in, does look interesting,
though.

However, casting my view around Europe, one of the best prospects of a
surprise champion is in Scotland, where Hearts are in first place,
unbeaten, on 16 points from 6 games, 5 ahead of the nearest contenders
(Rangers, Hibs, and Livingston (!)). Celtic are only sixth -having lost
to Hearts and Kilmarnock. I don't expect Hearts to hold on to first,
but it would be great if they did. Steven Naismith is performing
wonders for them, and has been restored to the Scotland side (where he
scored in their last game).

If we forget about championships, what do you folks think are the teams
in the various leagues most likely to force themselves unexpectedly into
the Champions' league spots (i.e. teams that have not made the CL in
years, and not obviously spent a fortune for an assault on those places
this year).

My guesses:
England - ain't going to happen. There are six contenders for the CL
(not all equal) and three of them slipping up is too much to ask this year.

France - maybe Lille ? Off to a decent enough start, and they are a
fairly big club with a big new stadium and some resources. Bouncing back
from a terrible year last year, flirting with relegation, they could get
into the top 3, especially if Monaco continue to do poorly.

Germany - Bremen and Hertha have shown early signs of doing something.
But here there are 2 spots perennially up from grabs - Leipzig,
Hoffenheim, Gladbach have all made it there, and Leverkusen and Schalke
regularly. Schalke are stinking up the joint so far, which offers an
opportunity to someone. Let's say Bremen just for fun.

Italy - I can't see anyone outside Juve, Napoli, the two Milan teams and
the two Rome teams doing it. Maybe Fiorentina. But I am pretty ill
informed about Serie A.

Spain - with none of Sevilla, Atletico, Real and Barca sputtering all
that badly, there seems to be no room.

If we made this a contest (sophisticated or not) who would you predict
as your best bets to make the CL as outsiders ?

[MH]

Could Hertha actually be for real ? I have never liked them much.
Usually inept or boring in the 38 years I have been following German
football, but if they can keep pressure up on Bayern and Dortmund, more
power to them !

[Werner Pichler]

On Wednesday, 26 September 2018 23:52:43 UTC+2, MH wrote:
> (or Wolfsburg, Kaiserslautern, Hellas Verona, Montpellier etc - teams
> that unexpectedly came from nowhere to win championships)
>
> I was thinking about this at the beginning of the season, but in the top
> leagues, the prospects of the established order being upset seem pretty
> dismal already. I had hopes of Everton and Leicester, for instance, but
> in spite of strengthening their team (Richarlison, Bernard, Zouma,
> Digne, Mina) the former are already quite far behind. They did play
> very well against Arsenal and should really have won. Watford were also
> looking intriguing, but now have been brought to earth. And of course
> the most important factor is that Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool are
> off to flying starts and it seems improbable that all three of them
> would have the wheels fall off this year.
>
> Same in Spain, today's results notwithstanding. And Italy looks like
> being dominated by the usual suspects, with Bayern and PSG unlikely to
> be challenged, and if they are challenged, it will be by teams like
> Lyon, Marseille, and Dortmund (especially now that Hertha have been
> found out)
>
> So which leagues can we look at for unexpected winners? Probably not
> Portugal (though Braga are hanging in there),

Actually leading right now following Benfica's surprise draw in Chaves.

> nor the Netherlands (look at the table). Perhaps Belgium (Genk doing well,

> but they are hardly rank outsiders), though it is early days, and the Format

> allows the Anderlecht/Bruges cartel to make up a lot of ground in the
> championship round.
>
>
> Russia does have a couple of outsiders high in the table right now, but
> still behind Zenit. Turkey, only six games in, does look interesting,
> though.

Turkey is surprising mostly because of the struggles, or even downfall, of
Fenerbahçe. They lost four of the first six matches, the last one 0-3 against
newly promoted side Rizespor. Phillip Cocu's already history.

> However, casting my view around Europe,

In both Switzerland and Austria, the reigning champions Young Boys and Salzburg
have won all of their first nine matches, so nothing to see here.

Although it's interesting to note that the changing of the Swiss guards was
completed, and one could say even formalized, by YB's 7-1 dismantling of Basel
a week ago.

> one of the best prospects of a surprise champion is in Scotland, where Hearts
> are in first place, unbeaten, on 16 points from 6 games, 5 ahead of the
> nearest contenders (Rangers, Hibs, and Livingston (!)). Celtic are only sixth
> -having lost to Hearts and Kilmarnock. I don't expect Hearts to hold on to
> first, but it would be great if they did. Steven Naismith is performing
> wonders for them, and has been restored to the Scotland side (where he
> scored in their last game).

The situation in the Scottish League is indeed interesting. Both Hearts and
Livingston (against Rangers) ground out more wins this weekend. But I fully
expect Celtic to make up the six-point deficit in the course of the season,
but maybe only after they're out of Europe.

> If we forget about championships, what do you folks think are the teams
> in the various leagues most likely to force themselves unexpectedly into
> the Champions' league spots (i.e. teams that have not made the CL in
> years, and not obviously spent a fortune for an assault on those places
> this year).
>
> My guesses:
> England - ain't going to happen. There are six contenders for the CL
> (not all equal) and three of them slipping up is too much to ask this year.
>
> France - maybe Lille ? Off to a decent enough start, and they are a
> fairly big club with a big new stadium and some resources. Bouncing back
> from a terrible year last year, flirting with relegation, they could get
> into the top 3, especially if Monaco continue to do poorly.
>
> Germany - Bremen and Hertha have shown early signs of doing something.
> But here there are 2 spots perennially up from grabs - Leipzig,
> Hoffenheim, Gladbach have all made it there, and Leverkusen and Schalke
> regularly. Schalke are stinking up the joint so far, which offers an
> opportunity to someone. Let's say Bremen just for fun.
>
> Italy - I can't see anyone outside Juve, Napoli, the two Milan teams and
> the two Rome teams doing it. Maybe Fiorentina. But I am pretty ill
> informed about Serie A.
>
> Spain - with none of Sevilla, Atletico, Real and Barca sputtering all
> that badly, there seems to be no room.
>
> If we made this a contest (sophisticated or not) who would you predict
> as your best bets to make the CL as outsiders ?

Salzburg! ;-)


Ciao,
Werner

[Mark]

You haven't been following South American football have you? Or is unpredictability only newsworthy in Europe, because there's so little of it?
Atletico Tucuman are currently 2nd, and Huracan are 3rd in the Argentinian League. Not to mention Racing Club, who have won about 1 major trophy in the last 20 years, being top.

[MH]

On 2018-10-01 3:14, Mark wrote:

>>
>> If we made this a contest (sophisticated or not) who would you predict
>> as your best bets to make the CL as outsiders ?
>
> You haven't been following South American football have you?

I look at the results and tables for Argentina and Brazil (more often
the latter). But these leagues are inherently unpredictable due to the
siphoning off of talent from the more successful clubs each year to
Europe, and even Mexico and MLS. PLus the Apertura/ Clausura
Inicial/Final format (recently abandoned in Argentina, I gather) added
to the chaos in quite few countries outside Brazil.

[MH]

On 2018-09-26 15:52, MH wrote:

> (or Wolfsburg, Kaiserslautern, Hellas Verona, Montpellier etc - teams
> that unexpectedly came from nowhere to win championships)
>
> I was thinking about this at the beginning of the season, but in the top
> leagues, the prospects of the established order being upset seem pretty
> dismal already.  I had hopes of Everton and Leicester, for instance, but
> in spite of strengthening their team (Richarlison, Bernard, Zouma,
> Digne, Mina) the former are already quite far behind.  They did play
> very well against Arsenal and should really have won. Watford were also
> looking intriguing, but now have been brought to earth.  And of course
> the most important factor is that Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool are
> off to flying starts and it seems improbable that all three of them
> would have the wheels fall off this year.
>
> Same in Spain, today's results notwithstanding.  And Italy looks like
> being dominated by the usual suspects, with Bayern and PSG unlikely to
> be challenged, and if they are challenged, it will be by teams like
> Lyon, Marseille, and Dortmund (especially now that Hertha have been
> found out)
>

I may have spoken too soon ! Bayern, Real and Barca all stuttering,
but I expect that is just the CL effect and won't last.

[Bruce Scott]

On 2018-09-28, MH <MHno...@ucalgary.ca> wrote:
> Could Hertha actually be for real ? I have never liked them much.
> Usually inept or boring in the 38 years I have been following German
> football, but if they can keep pressure up on Bayern and Dortmund, more
> power to them !

Trouble with Hertha is that they always fade in the second half of
the season. They've been in a CL spot before, and it's become a
pattern. I say BvB are real challengers this season, but only if
we don't get our act together. Favre has already said he needs
another year, and many of his players are quite young.

--
ciao, Bruce

[Bruce Scott]

On 2018-10-01, MH <MHno...@ucalgary.ca> wrote:
> I may have spoken too soon ! Bayern, Real and Barca all stuttering,
> but I expect that is just the CL effect and won't last.

For us and Real is it also a new trainer effect. Also, CRon left
them and I'm not sure how happy a camper Lewandowski is here.

--
ciao, Bruce

[Werner Pichler]

On Monday, 1 October 2018 09:39:41 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Wednesday, 26 September 2018 23:52:43 UTC+2, MH wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > Russia does have a couple of outsiders high in the table right now, but
> > still behind Zenit. Turkey, only six games in, does look interesting,
> > though.
>
> Turkey is surprising mostly because of the struggles, or even downfall, of
> Fenerbahçe. They lost four of the first six matches, the last one 0-3 against
> newly promoted side Rizespor. Phillip Cocu's already history.

Actually, he's not. I'm quite surprised. His payout clause must be enormous.


Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

On 2018-09-26 15:52, MH wrote:

> Same in Spain, today's results notwithstanding.

Well the usual suspects are looking shaky still, so who knows, maybe
Sevilla or Betis have a chance.

And Italy looks like
> being dominated by the usual suspects, with Bayern and PSG unlikely
to be challenged, and if they are challenged, it will be by teams like
Lyon, Marseille, and Dortmund (especially now that Hertha have been
found out)
>

>

> However, casting my view around Europe, one of the best prospects of
a surprise champion is in Scotland, where Hearts are in first place,
unbeaten, on 16 points from 6 games, 5 ahead of the nearest contenders
(Rangers, Hibs, and Livingston (!)). Celtic are only sixth -having lost
to Hearts and Kilmarnock. I don't expect Hearts to hold on to first,
but it would be great if they did. Steven Naismith is performing
wonders for them, and has been restored to the Scotland side (where he
scored in their last game).

Hearts have now lost for the first time (to Rangers), but the top half
of the table still looks as though it will keep some interest at least
until Christmas. And Rangers and Celtic have done well enough in the
Europa league that they will maintain an interest in that for at least a
couple more games, distracting them from the home front.

Latest Scotland squad for the European Nations League is quite heavily
SPL based (and not just Old Firm). Only EPL players are McTominay (Manu
, Robertson (Liverpool). MacDonald (Fulham), Fraser (Bournemouth), and
Armstrong (Southampton), Snodgrass (West Ham) with only Robertson among
those even vaguely approaching being a household name. Most are not
regulars for their clubs, though Fraser is getting that way.

>
> If we forget about championships, what do you folks think are the
teams in the various leagues most likely to force themselves
unexpectedly into the Champions' league spots (i.e. teams that have not
made the CL in years, and not obviously spent a fortune for an assault
on those places this year).
>
> My guesses:
> England - ain't going to happen. There are six contenders for the CL
(not all equal) and three of them slipping up is too much to ask this year.

Any bets on 7th place ? I would still go with the toffees. Or maybe Man
United

>
> France - maybe Lille ? Off to a decent enough start, and they are a
fairly big club with a big new stadium and some resources.

Sticking up there in second, but nobody is catching PSG. Monaco's
collapse is interesting. Any explanations ?

Bouncing back
> from a terrible year last year, flirting with relegation, they could
get into the top 3, especially if Monaco continue to do poorly.
>
> Germany - Bremen and Hertha have shown early signs of doing
something. But here there are 2 spots perennially up from grabs -
Leipzig, Hoffenheim, Gladbach have all made it there, and Leverkusen and
Schalke regularly. Schalke are stinking up the joint so far, which
offers an opportunity to someone. Let's say Bremen just for fun.
>
> Italy - I can't see anyone outside Juve, Napoli, the two Milan teams
and the two Rome teams doing it. Maybe Fiorentina. But I am pretty ill
informed about Serie A.
>
> Spain - with none of Sevilla, Atletico, Real and Barca sputtering all
that badly, there seems to be no room.
>
> If we made this a contest (sophisticated or not) who would you
predict as your best bets to make the CL as outsiders ?

Lille !

>

[Binder Dundat]

Red Bull Leipzig if they can get themselves eliminated from Europa early enough.

[Werner Pichler]

On Wednesday, 26 September 2018 23:52:43 UTC+2, MH wrote:

> (or Wolfsburg, Kaiserslautern, Hellas Verona, Montpellier etc - teams
> that unexpectedly came from nowhere to win championships)
>

> Perhaps Belgium (Genk doing well, but they are hardly
> rank outsiders), though it is early days, and the format allows the
> Anderlecht/Bruges cartel to make up a lot of ground in the championship
> round.

What do you know about this cartel, Michael, and should Belgian police
search your place, too?


Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

Like Manuel in Fawlty Towers, " I know notheeeeeng !"

And the only 100 % Belgian in my household knows less, though the only
teams she could name would be Anderlecht and Bruges. Coincidence ? I
think not...........

(Actually, come to think of it she has heard of Standard Liege too)
>
>
> Ciao,
> Werner
>

[Werner Pichler]

On Tuesday, 9 October 2018 15:42:48 UTC+2, MH wrote:
> On 2018-09-26 15:52, MH wrote:
> >
> > France - maybe Lille ? Off to a decent enough start, and they are a
> > fairly big club with a big new stadium and some resources.
>
> Sticking up there in second, but nobody is catching PSG. Monaco's
> collapse is interesting. Any explanations ?

Lost 10 players for 300+ m€, brought in 10 players for 100+ m€.
So logically, they're 200 m€ (or 1 Neymar in SI Units) weaker.

They've now fired their coach Jardim. Henry to the rescue?


Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

On 2018-10-11 8:40, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Tuesday, 9 October 2018 15:42:48 UTC+2, MH wrote:
>> On 2018-09-26 15:52, MH wrote:
>> >
>> > France - maybe Lille ? Off to a decent enough start, and they are a
>> > fairly big club with a big new stadium and some resources.
>>
>> Sticking up there in second, but nobody is catching PSG. Monaco's
>> collapse is interesting. Any explanations ?
>
> Lost 10 players for 300+ m€,

Was it that many at one fell swoop? I knew Lemar, Fabinho, Gezzal,
Moutinho, Kongolo had left, plus Mbappe officially (but he was gone on
loan last year). Could not think of any others.

But this did not seem like any more than the normal Monaco exodus ever
year, that has seen players like Falcao, James, Bakoyoko, Mendy, B.
Silva, V. Germain and so on all leave.

And they did bring in some promising players like Henrichs, Golovin and
Chadli, and have some promising younger ones already.

brought in 10 players for 100+ m€.
> So logically, they're 200 m€ (or 1 Neymar in SI Units) weaker.
>
> They've now fired their coach Jardim. Henry to the rescue?

So I read.

>
>
> Ciao,
> Werner
>

[Werner Pichler]

To follow up on this - in a rather surprising twist of events, a while ago Fener
instead of Cocu fired three of his Turkish assistant coaches for having
conspired to get Cocu sacked. Allegedly they hated him for bringing in a new
team that would eventually replace them, and set him up for failure by
misinforming him about training performances, deliberately mismanaging
training exercises and leaking team performance data to Fenerbahçe's opponents.

Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

And now Cocu's been fired regardless, the fifth defeat of the season in
the 10th match was too much.

Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Thursday, 11 October 2018 17:49:37 UTC+2, MH wrote:
> On 2018-10-11 8:40, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >

> > [Monaco] have now fired their coach Jardim. Henry to the rescue?
>
> So I read.


Not much of a rescue...


Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

I was thinking the same. As I posted before (quoted below) I thought
Henry was a strange (and bad) choice for this job

"This seems an odd one to me. There were rumours he would go to
Bordeaux at one point, but he is completely untried, having thus far
only had experience as assistant to Roberto Martinez with Belgium.

I am surprised Monaco, who have relatively deep pockets I assume, did
not try for someone like Laurent Blanc, Didier Deschamps (after all,
having won the WC why not quit while on top, and go back to a club he
did very well at), Antoine Kombouaré (good coach, surely he can be
prised away from Guingamp ?), Rene Girard, or Eric Gerets.

Henry, especially in interviews in his native French, has always seemed
to me to be incredibly vain, hypocritical, and not very intelligent. "
>
>
> Ciao,
> Werner
>

[Werner Pichler]

On Monday, 1 October 2018 09:39:41 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:

> On Wednesday, 26 September 2018 23:52:43 UTC+2, MH wrote:
> >
> > one of the best prospects of a surprise champion is in Scotland, where Hearts
> > are in first place, unbeaten, on 16 points from 6 games, 5 ahead of the
> > nearest contenders (Rangers, Hibs, and Livingston (!)). Celtic are only sixth
> > -having lost to Hearts and Kilmarnock. I don't expect Hearts to hold on to
> > first, but it would be great if they did. Steven Naismith is performing
> > wonders for them, and has been restored to the Scotland side (where he
> > scored in their last game).
>
> The situation in the Scottish League is indeed interesting. Both Hearts and
> Livingston (against Rangers) ground out more wins this weekend. But I fully
> expect Celtic to make up the six-point deficit in the course of the season,
> but maybe only after they're out of Europe.

Didn’t even take that long.

Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

Not sure what happened to Hearts but the wheels sure did fall off,
starting with back to back heavy defeats to Celtic in Cup and League.
>
> Ciao,
> Werner
>

[anders t]

My most Heartsfelt wishes for their comeback.

>starting with back to back heavy defeats to Celtic in Cup and League.

--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

[Jesper Lauridsen]

Jardim to the rescue!

[Werner Pichler]

On Wednesday, 26 September 2018 23:52:43 UTC+2, MH wrote:
>

> If we forget about championships, what do you folks think are the teams
> in the various leagues most likely to force themselves unexpectedly into
> the Champions' league spots (i.e. teams that have not made the CL in
> years, and not obviously spent a fortune for an assault on those places
> this year).

Update:

> My guesses:
> England - ain't going to happen. There are six contenders for the CL
> (not all equal) and three of them slipping up is too much to ask this year.

Yep.

> France - maybe Lille ? Off to a decent enough start, and they are a
> fairly big club with a big new stadium and some resources. Bouncing back
> from a terrible year last year, flirting with relegation, they could get
> into the top 3, especially if Monaco continue to do poorly.

Lille in CL looks increasingly likely. I haven't watched a match by them this
season, so just looking at the stats I guess your FS pick Rémy is enjoying a
great season, and there's a distinct Portuguese/Brazilian flavour to the team?

> Germany - Bremen and Hertha have shown early signs of doing something.
> But here there are 2 spots perennially up from grabs - Leipzig,
> Hoffenheim, Gladbach have all made it there, and Leverkusen and Schalke
> regularly. Schalke are stinking up the joint so far, which offers an
> opportunity to someone. Let's say Bremen just for fun.

Correct assessment - 2 CL spots are indeed up for grabs, with 5 teams currently
in contention - Leipzig, Gladbach (on a downward spiral), Frankfurt, Leverkusen
and Wolfsburg. Leipzig and Frankfurt would be my bets, but the latter could be
distracted by European football.

> Italy - I can't see anyone outside Juve, Napoli, the two Milan teams and
> the two Rome teams doing it. Maybe Fiorentina. But I am pretty ill
> informed about Serie A.

Nevertheless correct. Atalanta and Torino are closest to a CL spot, 6 points
behind Inter, but I don't expect them to make up that deficit.

> Spain - with none of Sevilla, Atletico, Real and Barca sputtering all
> that badly, there seems to be no room.

But this one's a bit of a surprise. At the beginning it looked as if Real would
falter, but currently it's Sevilla who are sputtering. Getafe or Alavés could
actually qualify for the CL.

> If we made this a contest (sophisticated or not) who would you predict
> as your best bets to make the CL as outsiders ?

Additionally to the above, on current standings Krasnodar, Istanbul Başakşehir,
and Salzburg would play CL for the first time next season.


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Monday, 4 March 2019 09:02:40 UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Wednesday, 26 September 2018 23:52:43 UTC+2, MH wrote:
> >
> > France - maybe Lille ? Off to a decent enough start, and they are a
> > fairly big club with a big new stadium and some resources. Bouncing back
> > from a terrible year last year, flirting with relegation, they could get
> > into the top 3, especially if Monaco continue to do poorly.
>
> Lille in CL looks increasingly likely. I haven't watched a match by them this
> season, so just looking at the stats I guess your FS pick Rémy is enjoying a
> great season, and there's a distinct Portuguese/Brazilian flavour to the team?

It looked for a while as if Lyon could catch up, but then Lille thumped
(10-man) PSG 5-1 yesterday. Didn't see that coming!

Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

Meanwhile in the EPL, it looks as though nobody wants seventh place.
Everton and Leicester both lost on the weekend, as did Watford and
Wolves. Three of them were playing teams below them in the standings,
and Leicester and Watford were at home. If none of these teams wants to
play in the Europa league next season, I guess Manchester City has the
FA cup wrapped up already.


>
> Ciao,
> Werner
>

[Futbolmetrix]

On Tuesday, April 16, 2019 at 11:29:56 PM UTC+2, MH wrote:
>
> Meanwhile in the EPL, it looks as though nobody wants seventh place.
> Everton and Leicester both lost on the weekend, as did Watford and
> Wolves. Three of them were playing teams below them in the standings,
> and Leicester and Watford were at home. If none of these teams wants to
> play in the Europa league next season, I guess Manchester City has the
> FA cup wrapped up already.

In Serie A, Atalanta had the chance to stay close in the CL chase, then this happened:

https://twitter.com/Caley_graphics/status/1117896290656907264

[Werner Pichler]

On Wednesday, 26 September 2018 23:52:43 UTC+2, MH wrote:
>
>>

> If we forget about championships, what do you folks think are the teams
> in the various leagues most likely to force themselves unexpectedly into
> the Champions' league spots (i.e. teams that have not made the CL in
> years, and not obviously spent a fortune for an assault on those places
> this year).
>

> My guesses:
> England - ain't going to happen. There are six contenders for the CL
> (not all equal) and three of them slipping up is too much to ask this year.
>

> France - maybe Lille ? Off to a decent enough start, and they are a
> fairly big club with a big new stadium and some resources. Bouncing back
> from a terrible year last year, flirting with relegation, they could get
> into the top 3, especially if Monaco continue to do poorly.
>

> Germany - Bremen and Hertha have shown early signs of doing something.
> But here there are 2 spots perennially up from grabs - Leipzig,
> Hoffenheim, Gladbach have all made it there, and Leverkusen and Schalke
> regularly. Schalke are stinking up the joint so far, which offers an
> opportunity to someone. Let's say Bremen just for fun.
>

> Italy - I can't see anyone outside Juve, Napoli, the two Milan teams and
> the two Rome teams doing it. Maybe Fiorentina. But I am pretty ill
> informed about Serie A.
>

> Spain - with none of Sevilla, Atletico, Real and Barca sputtering all
> that badly, there seems to be no room.
>

> If we made this a contest (sophisticated or not) who would you predict
> as your best bets to make the CL as outsiders ?

So the two new teams in the Champions League that are certain for next season
are Atalanta and Salzburg. Lille will also make it, already for the sixth time,
and Genk will be there for the third time. Salzburg will go directly to Pot 3.


Preliminary Pots:

Pot 1

Liverpool/Tottenham
Arsenal/Chelsea
Barcelona
Manchester City
Juventus
Bayern München
Paris Saint-Germain
Zenit St. Petersburg


Pot 2

Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid
FC Porto* (going through two rounds of qualifiers)
Borussia Dortmund
Napoli
Shakhtar Donetsk
Liverpool/Tottenham
Chelsea/Ajax* (going through two rounds of qualifiers)


Pot 3

Benfica
Dinamo Kyiv* (going through two rounds of qualifiers)
Bayer Leverkusen
RB Salzburg
Valencia
Inter
Celtic* (going through four rounds of qualifiers)
Lyon (if Chelsea win the EL) or Ajax* (going through two rounds of qualifiers)


Pot 4

FC København* (going through three rounds of qualifiers)
Dinamo Zagreb* (going through three rounds of qualifiers)
Lokomotiv Moskva
Genk
Galatasaray
RB Leipzig
Atalanta
Lille



Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

BTW two newcomers in the Europa League are also certain, FC Oleksandriya from
Ukraine and WAC from Wolfsberg, a small city in Carinthia. The ideal situation,
one might think, to finally have an opportunity to use that white elephant of a
stadium in Carinthia's capital Klagenfurt, built in the wrong place for Euro 2008, but it turns out that the 32,000 seater stadium is otherwise… employed
exactly at the time when Wolfsberg will play their three Europa League group
matches: https://www.visitklagenfurt.at/en/art-project.html

Yes, WAC will have to play Europa League in Graz, because there's a forest in
the way.


A third newcomer would be the surprise Belgian Cup winners Mechelen, but they
currently stand trial for their involvement in the match fixing scandal and
might well be stripped by the Royal Belgian FA of their title and/or European
ticket.


Ciao,
Werner

[alka...@hotmail.com]

Congrats!

> Pot 1
>
> Liverpool/Tottenham
> Arsenal/Chelsea
> Barcelona
> Manchester City
> Juventus
> Bayern München
> Paris Saint-Germain
> Zenit St. Petersburg

There's something wrong with the formula if a Russian team is in Pot 1 every season. I know the top 6 ranked leagues all get a #1 seed but the Russian champions just aren't at the level of the others and one group invariably becomes too easy. Maybe make it the top 5 league winners + CL winner + CL finalist + EL winner?

[Werner Pichler]

On Monday, 27 May 2019 12:35:17 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
>
>
>
> A third newcomer would be the surprise Belgian Cup winners Mechelen, but
> they currently stand trial for their involvement in the match fixing
> scandal and might well be stripped by the Royal Belgian FA of their title
> and/or European ticket.

Mechelen were originally denied promotion to the Belgian First Division A
and stripped of their place in the Europa League, but their appeal against
the decision was granted (not because the match-fixing didn't happen, but
due to some loophole in the regulations) and now it's all a big mess where
Belgium - now that the qualifiers have already started and there's no more
time to pick a replacement - could actually lose a European spot for good if
UEFA decide to kick Mechelen out of their competitions after all (something
they did to Fenerbahçe a couple of years ago, for similar reasons).


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

Solomonian (?) judgment: Mechelen are allowed to play in the top division
but have been kicked out of Europe. The decision arrived in the nick of time
to let Gent enter Europe instead, while Standard Liège will inherit the
group stage spot.

Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

On 2019-07-18 14:59, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Tuesday, 16 July 2019 20:21:34 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
>> On Monday, 27 May 2019 12:35:17 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> A third newcomer would be the surprise Belgian Cup winners Mechelen, but
>>> they currently stand trial for their involvement in the match fixing
>>> scandal and might well be stripped by the Royal Belgian FA of their
>>> title and/or European ticket.
>>
>> Mechelen were originally denied promotion to the Belgian First Division A
>> and stripped of their place in the Europa League, but their appeal against
>> the decision was granted (not because the match-fixing didn't happen, but
>> due to some loophole in the regulations) and now it's all a big mess where
>> Belgium - now that the qualifiers have already started and there's no more
>> time to pick a replacement - could actually lose a European spot for good
>> if UEFA decide to kick Mechelen out of their competitions after all
>> (something they did to Fenerbahçe a couple of years ago, for similar
>> reasons).
>
> Solomonian (?) judgment: Mechelen are allowed to play in the top division
> but have been kicked out of Europe.

By the Belgian FA or UEFA ?

If the former, a little weird, since they qualified as cup winners, not
through the league process. Plus they did not actually profit from the
allegedy bribery, since they were relegated anyway in 2018, though I
suppose that is beside the point.

The decision arrived in the nick of time
> to let Gent enter Europe instead, while Standard Liège will inherit the
> group stage spot.

So do Gent get the spot based on league position (5th) or being the
losing cup finalists ? If the former, it seems a little hard on
Charleroi, who were the losers (to Antwerp) in the Europa league
playoff. They should have had a crack at a playoff with Gent, but I
suppose there is no time.

>
> Ciao,
> Werner
>

[Werner Pichler]

On Friday, 19 July 2019 16:59:21 UTC+2, MH wrote:
> On 2019-07-18 14:59, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Tuesday, 16 July 2019 20:21:34 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >> On Monday, 27 May 2019 12:35:17 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> A third newcomer would be the surprise Belgian Cup winners Mechelen,
> >>> but they currently stand trial for their involvement in the match
> >>> fixing scandal and might well be stripped by the Royal Belgian FA of
> >>> their title and/or European ticket.
> >>
> >> Mechelen were originally denied promotion to the Belgian First Division
> >> A and stripped of their place in the Europa League, but their appeal
> >> against the decision was granted (not because the match-fixing didn't
> >> happen, but due to some loophole in the regulations) and now it's all a
> >> big mess where Belgium - now that the qualifiers have already started
> >> and there's no more time to pick a replacement - could actually lose a
> >> European spot for good if UEFA decide to kick Mechelen out of their
> >> competitions after all (something they did to Fenerbahçe a couple of
> >> years ago, for similar reasons).
> >
> > Solomonian (?) judgment: Mechelen are allowed to play in the top
> > division but have been kicked out of Europe.
>
> By the Belgian FA or UEFA ?

By the Belgian Court of Arbitration for Sports
https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/news/newsid=2616837.html

> If the former, a little weird, since they qualified as cup winners, not
> through the league process. Plus they did not actually profit from the
> allegedy bribery, since they were relegated anyway in 2018, though I
> suppose that is beside the point.
>
> The decision arrived in the nick of time
> > to let Gent enter Europe instead, while Standard Liège will inherit the
> > group stage spot.
>
> So do Gent get the spot based on league position (5th) or being the
> losing cup finalists ? If the former, it seems a little hard on
> Charleroi, who were the losers (to Antwerp) in the Europa league
> playoff. They should have had a crack at a playoff with Gent, but I
> suppose there is no time.

The former. Losing cup finalists aren't allowed into Europe for a couple
of years now.


Ciao,
Werner

[HD(noSpam)Beers@gmail.com]

What still amazes me a bit, is that so much of this is going to depend on what my Yank "boy wonders" get up to. Timo Weah @ Lille, Josh Sargent @Werder Breman, Weston Mckennie @ Shalke(with a Yank coach), Tyler Adams @ RB Leipzig, Gio Reyna @ Dortmund, and of course there is the original "boy wonder" who has been reunited with Batsman and is off to a pretty good start.

As for any Leicester City possibilities I might take a stab at Wolves in the EPL because they've picked up a Spanish "boy wonder" by the name of Jesus Vallejo, who I suspect might turn out to be the next Virgil van Dyke.

[Werner Pichler]

That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
speculate about potential upsets in the major European
leagues.

Early days, but it appears to me that there might be more
surprises (not necessarily surprise champions, but at least
surprise CL qualifications) in the hat this year than in previous seasons.

England: Nope. Liverpool and Man City to slug it out with
nary a loss between them. CL places to the usual
suspects.

Spain: Oh yes. Barcelona and especially Real seem to
be struggling, leaving the door open for the usual Atlético,
but perhaps also some eternal runner-ups like Sevilla?
Not to mention that this very moment the live table is
topped by Granada. (I know, it’s been only five rounds.)

Italy: Juve, Inter and Napoli in the top 3 seems like a
fair bet. The fourth CL Spot is up for grabs.

Germany: Nagelsmann’s Leipzig look like a real
challenger to the Bayern domination. Bayern, Leipzig
and Dortmund in the Top 3, but as usual, the fourth
German CL spot could be anybody’s. As with Italy, one
could also well argue that the league doesn’t necessarily
deserve that fourth spot.

France: PSG already lost a game, but yeah no.
(more interesting is that Monaco are already back in the
relegation zone *again*, after their narrow escape last
season. And this with players like Fàbregas, Ben Yedder,
Augustin, Bakayoko, Adrien Silva etc. A bit mind-boggling,
really)

Russia: Krasnodar could pull a PAOK (throw the Europa
League and fully concentrate on winning the domestic
title).

Portugal: who the hell are Famalicão?


But if I were a betting man I would put my biggest hopes
for a surprise champion in the Turkish League. The
dominance of the three big Istanbul clubs has crumbled
bit by bit in the last couple of seasons, with Fenerbahçe
having fallen by the wayside last season, Beşiktaş
already struggling in this, and Galatasaray only won the
league on the last matchday - but their rivals then,
government-pushed Başakşehir, also has a bad start to
this season.

So the current leaders are Alanyaspor, who have a couple
of interesting names in their squad like former Freiburg
and Newcastle striker Papiss Cissé, Chile international
Júnior Fernándes, and, for some reason, former England
hope Steven Caulker.



BTW nothing to see in Austria. Move on.


Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

On 2019-09-21 14:29, Werner Pichler wrote:
> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> leagues.
>
> Early days, but it appears to me that there might be more
> surprises (not necessarily surprise champions, but at least
> surprise CL qualifications) in the hat this year than in previous seasons.
>
> England: Nope. Liverpool and Man City to slug it out with
> nary a loss between them. CL places to the usual
> suspects.

Yes, any hopes that wolves, Everton or Leicester might break into the
top six have been dampened, if not shattered, by results in the first
few weeks. Leicester perhaps the best of the rest. Chelsea perhaps the
best bet for 3rd right now ?

>
> Spain: Oh yes. Barcelona and especially Real seem to
> be struggling, leaving the door open for the usual Atlético,

Ateli started the season well, but are looking very vulnerable of late

> but perhaps also some eternal runner-ups like Sevilla?
> Not to mention that this very moment the live table is
> topped by Granada. (I know, it’s been only five rounds.)

They were in tercera divsion (4th level, multiple leagues) when I lived
there.

>
> Italy: Juve, Inter and Napoli in the top 3 seems like a
> fair bet. The fourth CL Spot is up for grabs.
>
> Germany: Nagelsmann’s Leipzig look like a real
> challenger to the Bayern domination. Bayern, Leipzig
> and Dortmund in the Top 3, but as usual, the fourth
> German CL spot could be anybody’s. As with Italy, one
> could also well argue that the league doesn’t necessarily
> deserve that fourth spot.
>
> France: PSG already lost a game, but yeah no.
> (more interesting is that Monaco are already back in the
> relegation zone *again*, after their narrow escape last
> season. And this with players like Fàbregas, Ben Yedder,
> Augustin, Bakayoko, Adrien Silva etc. A bit mind-boggling,
> really)
>
> Russia: Krasnodar could pull a PAOK (throw the Europa
> League and fully concentrate on winning the domestic
> title).
>
> Portugal: who the hell are Famalicão?

Belgium : what has happened to Anderlecht ? I thought last season might
have been a one-off collapse , especially as they recovered from a bad
start to make the 6 team championships round (where they proceeded to do
very badly), but this year they also seem to have big problems. Antwerp
and Gent might have the legs to challenge Genk, Brugge, and Standard all
the way to the end.

[Murat Bey]

On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 11:29:32 PM UTC+3, Werner Pichler wrote:
> But if I were a betting man I would put my biggest hopes
> for a surprise champion in the Turkish League. The
> dominance of the three big Istanbul clubs has crumbled
> bit by bit in the last couple of seasons, with Fenerbahçe
> having fallen by the wayside last season, Beşiktaş
> already struggling in this, and Galatasaray only won the
> league on the last matchday - but their rivals then,
> government-pushed Başakşehir, also has a bad start to
> this season.
>

I wouldn't put money on it..

[Jesper Lauridsen]

On 2019-09-21, Werner Pichler <wpic...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> England: Nope. Liverpool and Man City to slug it out with
> nary a loss between them. CL places to the usual
> suspects.

Some unusual results for the usual suspects lately. But I guess the
rest is too far behind.

> Spain: Oh yes. Barcelona and especially Real seem to
> be struggling,

They are, but despite all Real can go top tonight. Can anyone outside
the gigants put up the kind of sustained run you need for a challange.

> Germany: Nagelsmann's Leipzig look like a real
> challenger to the Bayern domination. Bayern, Leipzig
> and Dortmund in the Top 3, but as usual, the fourth
> German CL spot could be anybody's. As with Italy, one
> could also well argue that the league doesn't necessarily
> deserve that fourth spot.

I expect 4th place will be open all the way to the final match day.

In 2. Bundesliga, it looks like Stuttgart and HSV means
business. Hannover and Nürnberg doesn't.

[Werner Pichler]

On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> leagues.
>
> Early days, but it appears to me that there might be more
> surprises (not necessarily surprise champions, but at least
> surprise CL qualifications) in the hat this year than in previous seasons.
>
> England: Nope. Liverpool and Man City to slug it out with
> nary a loss between them. CL places to the usual
> suspects.

Arsenal and Chelsea should indeed take 3 and 4, but with Spurs and
Man United currently out of the 'big 6' picture someone else might
in fact sneak in.

Everton in a relegation spot at the moment BTW.


> Spain: Oh yes.

Oh no. Real-Barca-Atlético the top 3. That was quick.

> Barcelona and especially Real seem to be struggling, leaving
> the door open for the usual Atlético, but perhaps also some eternal
> runner-ups like Sevilla?
> Not to mention that this very moment the live table is
> topped by Granada. (I know, it’s been only five rounds.)
>
> Italy: Juve, Inter and Napoli in the top 3 seems like a
> fair bet. The fourth CL Spot is up for grabs.

Higuaín just threw some cold water on Inter's loftier aspirations. Atalanta
suck in the Champions League but show good league form.

> Germany: Nagelsmann’s Leipzig look like a real
> challenger to the Bayern domination. Bayern, Leipzig
> and Dortmund in the Top 3, but as usual, the fourth
> German CL spot could be anybody’s. As with Italy, one
> could also well argue that the league doesn’t necessarily
> deserve that fourth spot.

Crazy table right now.

> France: PSG already lost a game, but yeah no.
> (more interesting is that Monaco are already back in the
> relegation zone *again*, after their narrow escape last
> season. And this with players like Fàbregas, Ben Yedder,
> Augustin, Bakayoko, Adrien Silva etc. A bit mind-boggling,
> really)

A quarter of the season in, both Lyon (where rookie manager Sylvinho is
finding things a tad difficult) and Monaco are sitting just above the
relegation line. Nantes and Angers are currently PSG's first pursuers,
but it's kind of hard seeing them go on a sustained good run, especially
the latter.

> Russia: Krasnodar could pull a PAOK (throw the Europa
> League and fully concentrate on winning the domestic
> title).

But now this is an interesting league table - more than a third into
the season the top 5 teams (Lokomotiv Moscow, Rostov, Krasnodar, Zenit
and CSKA Moscow) are within one point.

> Portugal: who the hell are Famalicão?

By now I've learned that they are a kind of pet project of notorious
player agent Jorge Mendes, financially backed by an Israeli billionaire,
with close ties to Atlético Madrid, Valencia and Wolverhampton, and
reminding me more than a little of the Red Bull system.


BTW both Russian and Portuguese teams are currently struggling mightily in
Europe, indicating that this new domestic parity is actually a sign of a
decrease in quality.

> But if I were a betting man I would put my biggest hopes
> for a surprise champion in the Turkish League. The
> dominance of the three big Istanbul clubs has crumbled
> bit by bit in the last couple of seasons, with Fenerbahçe
> having fallen by the wayside last season, Beşiktaş
> already struggling in this, and Galatasaray only won the
> league on the last matchday - but their rivals then,
> government-pushed Başakşehir, also has a bad start to
> this season.

This is still on. Current Top 4 are Alanya, Sivas, Trabzon and Konya. But
it's only been seven rounds.


Ciao,
Werner

[HASM]

Werner Pichler <wpic...@gmail.com> writes:

> BTW both Russian and Portuguese teams are currently struggling mightily in
> Europe, indicating that this new domestic parity is actually a sign of a
> decrease in quality.

Russia and Portugal are 6th and 7th in the UEFA coefficients rank,
separated by 0.1 points after UCL/EL match day 2.

If they equally struggle (suck) throughout the year, the divide by 6 for
Russia vs divide by 5 for Portugal may result in a swap.

And if they keep struggling one of Belgium, Netherlands, Ukraine or
Turkey may sneak in, but some of those may be struggling too.

Just like in the real world economic distribution, the gap between top
4/5 UEFA countries and the rest will widen, like the gap between rich
and poor countries, and each countries' 1 percenters vs the rest.

-- HASM

[Werner Pichler]

On Sunday, 6 October 2019 23:07:10 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> > speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> > leagues.
> >
> > Early days, but it appears to me that there might be more
> > surprises (not necessarily surprise champions, but at least
> > surprise CL qualifications) in the hat this year than in previous seasons.
> >
>

> > France: PSG already lost a game, but yeah no.
> > (more interesting is that Monaco are already back in the
> > relegation zone *again*, after their narrow escape last
> > season. And this with players like Fàbregas, Ben Yedder,
> > Augustin, Bakayoko, Adrien Silva etc. A bit mind-boggling,
> > really)
>
> A quarter of the season in, both Lyon (where rookie manager Sylvinho is
> finding things a tad difficult)

Too difficult. Replaced by Rudi Garcia. Interesting choice, considering the
intense Lyon/Marseille rivalry in which Garcia played no small part.


Ciao,
Werner

[Futbolmetrix]

On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 4:29:32 PM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
>
> Italy: Juve, Inter and Napoli in the top 3 seems like a
> fair bet. The fourth CL Spot is up for grabs.

OK, so what's up with Atalanta? They've been disappointing in the CL, but they are tearing up Serie A. Just three points behind Juve, but they are currently 3-0 up at halftime in what should have been a tough away match at Lazio, so virtually tied for first place. Also, 21 goals scored after 7 and a half matches, which puts them fairly comfortably on pace for a 100 goal season.

[Futbolmetrix]

On Saturday, October 19, 2019 at 10:08:31 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
>
> OK, so what's up with Atalanta? They've been disappointing in the CL, but they
> are tearing up Serie A. Just three points behind Juve, but they are currently
> 3-0 up at halftime in what should have been a tough away match at Lazio,

FT: 3-3

Weaufx Gods are always alert

[MH]

On 2019-10-14 8:11, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Sunday, 6 October 2019 23:07:10 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
>> On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
>>> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
>>> leagues.
>>>
>>> Early days, but it appears to me that there might be more
>>> surprises (not necessarily surprise champions, but at least
>>> surprise CL qualifications) in the hat this year than in previous seasons.

In the EPL it certainly looks like this year's Leicester could be ....
Leicester. Impressive so far, not conceding many goals in spite of
having sold Maguire. Madison and Tielemans looking good. Could easily
finish 3rd if they avoid serious injuries. Top 4 seems like a realistic
ambition, though getting into the top two will take some doing (and
injuries to Liverpool and Man City mainstays)

>>>
>>
>>> France: PSG already lost a game, but yeah no.
>>> (more interesting is that Monaco are already back in the
>>> relegation zone *again*, after their narrow escape last
>>> season. And this with players like Fàbregas, Ben Yedder,
>>> Augustin, Bakayoko, Adrien Silva etc. A bit mind-boggling,
>>> really)
>>
>> A quarter of the season in, both Lyon (where rookie manager Sylvinho is
>> finding things a tad difficult)
>
> Too difficult. Replaced by Rudi Garcia. Interesting choice, considering the
> intense Lyon/Marseille rivalry in which Garcia played no small part.
>

Nantes and Angers surprising so far. That sort of came from nowhere.


>
> Ciao,
> Werner
>

[Werner Pichler]

On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:

> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> leagues.

[...]

>
> BTW nothing to see in Austria. Move on.

I spoke to soon. Almost halfway through the season, while Salzburg are in
fact still unbeaten in the league (12-3-0), LASK, who everybody expected to
regress to mean after losing their manager and main striker to Wolfsburg,
are playing a fantastic season and are only one point behind (12-2-1), while
their Europa League campaign has also been above expectations.
Valérien Ismaël's coaching career in Germany hasn't exactly been stellar,
but he's doing a really good job in Linz.


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 1:46:10 AM UTC+1, MH wrote:
> On 2019-10-14 8:11, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Sunday, 6 October 2019 23:07:10 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >> On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler
> >> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> >>> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> >>> leagues.
> >>>
> >>> Early days, but it appears to me that there might be more
> >>> surprises (not necessarily surprise champions, but at least
> >>> surprise CL qualifications) in the hat this year than in previous
> >>> seasons.
>
> In the EPL it certainly looks like this year's Leicester could be ....
> Leicester. Impressive so far, not conceding many goals in spite of
> having sold Maguire. Madison and Tielemans looking good. Could easily
> finish 3rd if they avoid serious injuries. Top 4 seems like a realistic
> ambition, though getting into the top two will take some doing (and
> injuries to Liverpool and Man City mainstays)

After 14 rounds this season, Leicester have earned three points more than
at the same point in 2015/16, have scored more goals, and have conceded
way less. If it weren't for Liverpool putting up miracle numbers...

> >>> France: PSG already lost a game, but yeah no.
> >>> (more interesting is that Monaco are already back in the
> >>> relegation zone *again*, after their narrow escape last
> >>> season. And this with players like Fàbregas, Ben Yedder,
> >>> Augustin, Bakayoko, Adrien Silva etc. A bit mind-boggling,
> >>> really)
> >>
> >> A quarter of the season in, both Lyon (where rookie manager Sylvinho is
> >> finding things a tad difficult)
> >
> > Too difficult. Replaced by Rudi Garcia. Interesting choice, considering
> > the intense Lyon/Marseille rivalry in which Garcia played no small part.
> >
> Nantes and Angers surprising so far. That sort of came from nowhere.

Close league (apart from PSG), four points separating 3rd and 12th. Monaco
still flirting a bit with the disaster zone, but with a good run they can
easily claw their way back up, like Lyon already did.

In non-top 5 league news, a major surprise has happened in Belarus where
BATE have been dethroned after 13 consecutive seasons by Dynamo Brest who
won their first ever title. Diego Maradona, despite having left the country
after a couple of weeks last year (following a publicity stunt with a tank),
is still their honorary chairman and has sent his warmest congratulations.
Who knows, if they qualify for the Champions League he might be back.


Ciao,
Werner

[anders t]

Quoting Werner Pichler in rec.sport.soccer:

>After 14 rounds this season, Leicester have earned three points more than
>at the same point in 2015/16, have scored more goals, and have conceded
>way less. If it weren't for Liverpool putting up miracle numbers...

I would be kind of BWAHAHA-ish if Leicester - of all teams - pips Liverpool
for the title in the end.


--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

[anders t]

Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>Quoting Werner Pichler in rec.sport.soccer:
>
>>After 14 rounds this season, Leicester have earned three points more than
>>at the same point in 2015/16, have scored more goals, and have conceded
>>way less. If it weren't for Liverpool putting up miracle numbers...
>
>I would be kind of BWAHAHA-ish if Leicester - of all teams - pips Liverpool

It...

[alka...@hotmail.com]

On Monday, December 2, 2019 at 10:42:57 AM UTC-5, anders t wrote:
> Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
> >Quoting Werner Pichler in rec.sport.soccer:
> >
> >>After 14 rounds this season, Leicester have earned three points more than
> >>at the same point in 2015/16, have scored more goals, and have conceded
> >>way less. If it weren't for Liverpool putting up miracle numbers...
> >
> >I would be kind of BWAHAHA-ish if Leicester - of all teams - pips Liverpool
> It...

It and I?

[Google Beta User]

On Monday, December 2, 2019 at 10:42:33 AM UTC-5, anders t wrote:
> Quoting Werner Pichler in rec.sport.soccer:
>
> >After 14 rounds this season, Leicester have earned three points more than
> >at the same point in 2015/16, have scored more goals, and have conceded
> >way less. If it weren't for Liverpool putting up miracle numbers...
>
> I would be kind of BWAHAHA-ish if Leicester - of all teams - pips Liverpool
> for the title in the end.

:(

Their December schedule until the City game are all winnable. They may be playing us on boxing day with a chance to get within 2 points. A knackered Liverpool that might have an individual injury that'd just have returned from the WCC :(.

But cool role reversal to see Man U fans giddy for draws with Sheffield United and Villa, and for the prospect of LFC finishing runners up.

[alka...@hotmail.com]

On Tuesday, December 3, 2019 at 3:56:58 PM UTC-5, Google Beta User wrote:
> On Monday, December 2, 2019 at 10:42:33 AM UTC-5, anders t wrote:
> > Quoting Werner Pichler in rec.sport.soccer:
> >
> > >After 14 rounds this season, Leicester have earned three points more than
> > >at the same point in 2015/16, have scored more goals, and have conceded
> > >way less. If it weren't for Liverpool putting up miracle numbers...
> >
> > I would be kind of BWAHAHA-ish if Leicester - of all teams - pips Liverpool
> > for the title in the end.
>
> :(
>
> Their December schedule until the City game are all winnable. They may be playing us on boxing day with a chance to get within 2 points. A knackered Liverpool that might have an individual injury that'd just have returned from the WCC :(.

Leicester have no depth in key areas, most notable for Vardy and their defense. Their midfield has decent options though. I don't think their challenge can last as they have been playing pretty pressure free so far. That will change as people start taking them more seriously.

[Werner Pichler]

On Sunday, October 6, 2019 at 11:07:10 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler
> wrote:
> > That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> > speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> > leagues.
> >
> > Early days, but it appears to me that there might be more
> > surprises (not necessarily surprise champions, but at least
> > surprise CL qualifications) in the hat this year than in previous
> > seasons.
>
>

> > Spain: Oh yes.
>
> Oh no. Real-Barca-Atlético the top 3. That was quick.

At the other end of the spectrum: what is happening to La Coruña?
Exactly twenty years after winning the title...

> > But if I were a betting man I would put my biggest hopes
> > for a surprise champion in the Turkish League. The
> > dominance of the three big Istanbul clubs has crumbled
> > bit by bit in the last couple of seasons, with Fenerbahçe
> > having fallen by the wayside last season, Beşiktaş
> > already struggling in this, and Galatasaray only won the
> > league on the last matchday - but their rivals then,
> > government-pushed Başakşehir, also has a bad start to
> > this season.
>
> This is still on. Current Top 4 are Alanya, Sivas, Trabzon and Konya. But
> it's only been seven rounds.

After 14 rounds, it's Sivasspor slightly ahead of the Istanbul pack.


Ciao,
Werner

[Futbolmetrix]

On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 4:29:32 PM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> leagues.

How about the Eredivisie?

Ajax have started at a breakneck pace, but AZ Alkmaar, led by a strong defense and teenage sensations Calvin Stengs and Myron Boadu (somebody should have picked them in Fantasy Scout...oh wait...), have been able to hang around.

Today, the head to head encounter, and AZ walks out victorious with a 1-0 win (Boadu with the winning goal). All tied at the top of the standings with both teams on 41 points.

[Werner Pichler]

On Sunday, October 6, 2019 at 11:07:10 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler
> wrote:
>
>
> > Portugal: who the hell are Famalicão?
>
> By now I've learned that they are a kind of pet project of notorious
> player agent Jorge Mendes, financially backed by an Israeli billionaire,
> with close ties to Atlético Madrid, Valencia and Wolverhampton, and
> reminding me more than a little of the Red Bull system.

I guess the Famalicão fairy tale is now officially over, following a 0-7
drubbing at home against Vitória de Guimarães. If their trend continues,
they won't even qualify for Europe.

Ciao,
Werner

[Jesper Lauridsen]

On Sunday, 24 November 2019 12:39:48 UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
>
> >
> > BTW nothing to see in Austria. Move on.
>
> I spoke to soon. Almost halfway through the season, while Salzburg are in
> fact still unbeaten in the league (12-3-0)

If Sidney Sam destroyes you, how good can you be?

[Werner Pichler]

The Frankfurt matches were bad enough. Minamino was the bigger loss than
Håland. Five winless matches now.

Domestically I don't mind Salzburg struggling one bit, and it's actually getting
quite exciting - points will be halved after next round, so in all likelihood
LASK and Salzburg will be separated by three points going into the final 10
matches, two of which will be direct encounters. The two also meet in the cup
semifinal next Thursday in Salzburg, and then there's the little matter of Man
United coming to Linz the week after.

Quite exciting times for a fanbase that just six years ago had to watch their
team languish in the third division, and three years ago were still in the
second league.


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

Another interesting thing about LASK is that they won the double in 1965, the
first team from outside Vienna to win either the Austrian League or Cup.
National titles since then: 0

Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

Four rounds from the end, the Turkish champions will be either İstanbul
Başakşehir (63 points, so far two times runners-up) or Trabzonspor (61 points,
last of six titles in 1983-84).

But Trabzonspor have also been banned by UEFA for next season from all European
competitions for breaking FFP rules. High-earners like Sturridge and Obi Mikel
have since been let go.


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

And it stays that way. LASK made a complete mess of things during and after the
Corona break.

It all started to go downhill when they pushed for the Man United game to go
through on the very day the Corona lockdown began in earnest, which resulted in
a dismal 0-5 loss in front of an empty stadium. They then were the only ones to
lobby for a cancellation of the season - blatantly because they were in the lead
at that point - and subsequently, when government, league and clubs had finally
come to an agreement on re-start procedures, they deliberately ignored those
rules they themselves had negotiated and started squad training a week early.

They were denounced in rare unanimity by all other Bundesliga clubs and received
a six (later reduced to four) point deduction. They never recovered from that
blow psychologically, and so not only didn't challenge for the title but instead
won't even qualify directly to the Europa League, having finished only 4th.*
And they lost a ton of sympathies among all other Austrian clubs and their fans
in the process.

Ciao,
Werner

*(Direct qualification was won on the last matchday by Wolfsberg. German clubs
beware!)

[MH]

The Sturridge situation related to some strange goings on around betting
(or something like that), no (speculations on transfers that were bet
upon ?). And he had received a ban for that. "after being found guilty
of providing his brother with inside information on a potential move
from Liverpool to Sevilla in 2018." The information was actually wrong
as we now all know. All seems kind of weird to me. Why do betting shops
offer odds on things like this in the first place?

Last time I looked, none of Gala, Fener, or Besiktas was in the top
three. When was the last time that happened, I wonder?
4 rounds left for most teams.

[Werner Pichler]

On Saturday, 7 December 2019 18:06:50 UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:

> On Sunday, October 6, 2019 at 11:07:10 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler
> > wrote:
> > > That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> > > speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> > > leagues.
> > >
> > > Early days, but it appears to me that there might be more
> > > surprises (not necessarily surprise champions, but at least
> > > surprise CL qualifications) in the hat this year than in previous
> > > seasons.
> >
> >
> > > Spain: Oh yes.
> >
> > Oh no. Real-Barca-Atlético the top 3. That was quick.
>
> At the other end of the spectrum: what is happening to La Coruña?
> Exactly twenty years after winning the title...

It looked for a while as if they could save themselves, but now they've
actually been relegated to Segunda B (and to add insult to injury, without
being able to take the field themselves due to their opponents' Corona
quarantine).

First time a former Spanish champion has been relegated to the third
division since Betis back in 1947.


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Saturday, 21 September 2019 22:29:32 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> leagues.

Not a major league by any means, but there's a surprise winner in Slovenia -
NK Celje, based in the country's third-biggest city, won their first ever
domestic championship thanks to a 2-2 draw against Olimpija Ljubljana (owned by Milan Mandarić of Portsmouth/Leicester/Wednesday fame) on the last
matchday, which allowed them to maintain their two-point advantage over both
Olimpija and reigning champions Maribor.


Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

Meanwhile in Switzerland, St Gallen have spontaneously combusted over
the last few matches, making another Young Boys title pretty much a
formality.

A new winner in Turkey is now guaranteed though, with Trab doing a St.
Gallen.

[Werner Pichler]

On Wednesday, 22 July 2020 23:28:56 UTC+2, MH wrote:
> On 2020-07-22 15:01, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Saturday, 21 September 2019 22:29:32 UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> >> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> >> leagues.
> >
> > Not a major league by any means, but there's a surprise winner in
> > Slovenia - NK Celje, based in the country's third-biggest city, won
> > their first ever domestic championship thanks to a 2-2 draw against
> > Olimpija Ljubljana (owned by Milan Mandarić of Portsmouth/
> > Leicester/Wednesday fame) on the last matchday, which allowed them to
> > maintain their two-point advantage over both Olimpija and reigning
> > champions Maribor.
> >
> >
> >

> Meanwhile in Switzerland, St Gallen have spontaneously combusted over
> the last few matches, making another Young Boys title pretty much a
> formality.

The problem in Switzerland is that their season's in shambles regarding the
schedule - there are still three rounds to play and hardly any time left to
do so.

They've already basically forfeited the cup - they're still stuck at the
quarterfinal stage and won't finish it before having to submit the names of
their European entries (the fourth-placed team in the league will get the
spot).

Also, FC Zürich have been hit hard by the Corona virus, with almost their
entire first team in quarantine, but because there's no time to reschedule
they have been forced to play with their youth team instead.

Young Boys profited from that - they beat FCZ's U-21 5-0, while a couple of
weeks before that St. Gallen lost heavily to Zürich's A team.

> A new winner in Turkey is now guaranteed though, with Trab doing a St.
> Gallen.

Yes, Başakşehir have been crowned champions last weekend.


Ciao,
Werner

[Jesper Lauridsen]

On 2020-07-22, Werner Pichler <wpic...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Saturday, 7 December 2019 18:06:50 UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
>>
>> At the other end of the spectrum: what is happening to La Coruña?
>> Exactly twenty years after winning the title...
>
> It looked for a while as if they could save themselves, but now they've
> actually been relegated to Segunda B (and to add insult to injury, without
> being able to take the field themselves due to their opponents' Corona
> quarantine).

They've made demands that the entire match day be replayed, since,
with their match being postponed, it wasn't all played simultaneously.
But having your match later is (potentially) an advantage, as you know
the scores in the other matches. In this case, other results have
relegated them regardless of their final match, which is undoubtedly
why they want the match day replayed.

[Werner Pichler]

It appears the Fuenlabrada - Deportivo might now be played after all,
scheduled for Wednesday. It's relevant because with a draw Fuenlabrada (who
had 28 COVID cases in their team after they had travelled to A Coruña) would
pip Elche to the last promotion play-off spot. As far as I can tell they've
been stuck quarantined in a Galician hotel ever since? They've also been
accused of breaking Corona protocol, but seem to have been cleared since
they only did what LaLiga and Tebas (who's under a lot of fire) had told
them to do?

Deportivo might be a no-show though...

Quite a mess, but par for the course this year unfortunately.


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

To wrap this up, not only did Depo show up, but they denied Fuenlabrada a
place in the promotion play-offs thanks to two goals in the last six
minutes, the second one a stoppage time handball penalty.

Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

And this season we might see the spectacle of a reigning champion getting relegated.
Reminder, this is the team that prevented Man United from qualifying to the CL Round of 16.

Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

Turkey has been interesting this year with teams like Alanyaspor and
Gaziantep gettting off to a godo start and leading the table early,
IIRC. None of the big three from Istanbul started well, but they have
recovered, and if Besiktas win their game in hand, all would be tied at
51 points after 24 games. Ozil has actually started at least one match
for Fener, and lasted over 80 minutes. Both Cyle Larin and Atiba
Hutchinson are getting a fair bit of plating time for Besiktas.

Trabzonspor had a horrendous start but might be the hottest team in the
league right now (won their last 5 at least, but then so did Gala).
Basaksehir had an equally horrendous start but have not recovered.
Anyone know the story ?


>
> Ciao,
> Werner
>

[Werner Pichler]

On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> leagues.
>

2021/22 edition:

Could Union Saint-Gilloise be for real? Four points clear at the half-point of the season,
in their first campaign in the top flight since 1973. Proper old-timey club with 11 championships
to their name between 1904 and 1935, and nothing since.

Of course, there's still the stupid 4-team championship play-off with halving of the points
awaiting.

And also, as so often in Belgium, there's multi-club ownership to contend with - Union SG's
current success is mostly due to having been 'rebuilt' by Brighton owner Tony Bloom according
to Moneyball principles.

Former SV Meppen player Deniz Undav with 16 goals and 9 assists in 17 matches for Union so
far this season. The above mentioned Moneyball stats must be worth their salt, because
I must have seen the guy play in the stadium in a 3. Liga match against 1860 back in 2019, and
he didn't leave any impression on me whatsoever.

Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

On 2021-12-04 15:12, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
>> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
>> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
>> leagues.
>>
>
> 2021/22 edition:
>
> Could Union Saint-Gilloise be for real? Four points clear at the half-point of the season,
> in their first campaign in the top flight since 1973. Proper old-timey club with 11 championships
> to their name between 1904 and 1935, and nothing since.
>
> Of course, there's still the stupid 4-team championship play-off with halving of the points
> awaiting.

Plus Bruges might have more energy for the league after their CL exit.
I have to confess I had never heard of Union Saint-Gilloise until this
year. I didn't even know St. Gilles was a quartier of Brussels, though I
have spent a lot of time in Brussels because of the in-laws. It is
quite close to Anderlecht, where I have been, but most of the time I
stayed around the centre, or in places like Schaerbeek, Ixelles,
Wezembeek, Uccle, and Woluwe, which is where the various beaux-frères
and belles-soeurs live or have lived.

West Ham making the top 4 would be a major accomplishment, and so far
they look pretty solid.

Dunno how much of an upset Atalanta actually winning would be considered
after a couple of CL qualifications.

Both Seville teams and Real Sociedad have realistic chances of a top 2
or 3 finish.

And Nice making the CL, certainly possible, would be quite a surprise
and a real vindication of Galtier's merits as a coach.

[Werner Pichler]

Well, ever since the INEOS takeover two years ago and their correspondent increase
in net spending, making the CL has certainly been Nice's ambition, and luring Galtier
from the reigning champions was mostly the reaction to a dismal 2020-21 season.

Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 11:12:59 PM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> > speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> > leagues.
> >
> 2021/22 edition:

Looking around a bit, Croatia (one matchday away from the half-way point)
is more interesting than usual:

1 Rijeka 36
2 Osijek 35
3 Hajduk Split 33
4 Dinamo Zagreb 31 (1 game in hand)

Osijek have never won the title, Rijeka have won it once, five years ago,
and Hajduk have been waiting since 2007.


Also, not exactly a surprise, but the currently closest title race in Europe
is the one in Ukraine:

1 Shakhtar Donetsk 14-2-1 47-9 38
2 Dynamo Kyiv 14-2-1 46-8 38


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Tuesday, December 7, 2021 at 10:20:33 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 11:12:59 PM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > > That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> > > speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> > > leagues.
> > >
> > 2021/22 edition:
> Looking around a bit, Croatia (one matchday away from the half-way point)
> is more interesting than usual:
>
> 1 Rijeka 36
> 2 Osijek 35
> 3 Hajduk Split 33
> 4 Dinamo Zagreb 31 (1 game in hand)
>
> Osijek have never won the title, Rijeka have won it once, five years ago,
> and Hajduk have been waiting since 2007.

2005, actually.

Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 11:28:15 PM UTC+1, MH wrote:

> On 2021-12-04 15:12, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >> That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> >> speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> >> leagues.
> >>
> >
> > 2021/22 edition:
> >
> > Could Union Saint-Gilloise be for real? Four points clear at the half-point of the season,
> > in their first campaign in the top flight since 1973. Proper old-timey club with 11 championships
> > to their name between 1904 and 1935, and nothing since.
> >
> > Of course, there's still the stupid 4-team championship play-off with halving of the points
> > awaiting.
>
> Plus Bruges might have more energy for the league after their CL exit.
> I have to confess I had never heard of Union Saint-Gilloise until this
> year. I didn't even know St. Gilles was a quartier of Brussels, though I
> have spent a lot of time in Brussels because of the in-laws. It is
> quite close to Anderlecht, where I have been, but most of the time I
> stayed around the centre, or in places like Schaerbeek, Ixelles,
> Wezembeek, Uccle, and Woluwe, which is where the various beaux-frères
> and belles-soeurs live or have lived.

Having extended their lead to nine points around New Year's, SG faltered a little bit due to a
number of scoreless draws and the correctly predicted late Brugge surge, but at the end of the
regular season they're still five points ahead (if, as logic dictates, they eventually get the three
points from their match yesterday against dead last Beerschot that had to be abandoned because
of crowd trouble).

Of course, halving the points means that with six games among the Top 4 remaining they're
now less than three points ahead of a Brugge side that have won their last eight league matches.

> West Ham making the top 4 would be a major accomplishment, and so far
> they look pretty solid.
>
> Dunno how much of an upset Atalanta actually winning would be considered
> after a couple of CL qualifications.
>
> Both Seville teams and Real Sociedad have realistic chances of a top 2
> or 3 finish.
>
> And Nice making the CL, certainly possible, would be quite a surprise
> and a real vindication of Galtier's merits as a coach.

None of the above look very likely anymore (except Sevilla finishing third).

> > And also, as so often in Belgium, there's multi-club ownership to contend with - Union SG's
> > current success is mostly due to having been 'rebuilt' by Brighton owner Tony Bloom according
> > to Moneyball principles.
> >
> > Former SV Meppen player Deniz Undav with 16 goals and 9 assists in 17 matches for Union so
> > far this season. The above mentioned Moneyball stats must be worth their salt, because
> > I must have seen the guy play in the stadium in a 3. Liga match against 1860 back in 2019, and
> > he didn't leave any impression on me whatsoever.

Undav now with 25 goals and 10 assists in 33 matches. Not bad at all. Unsurprisingly, he has already
signed with sister club Brighton.


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Tuesday, December 7, 2021 at 10:20:33 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 11:12:59 PM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > > That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> > > speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> > > leagues.
> > >
> > 2021/22 edition:
> Looking around a bit, Croatia (one matchday away from the half-way point)
> is more interesting than usual:
>
> 1 Rijeka 36
> 2 Osijek 35
> 3 Hajduk Split 33
> 4 Dinamo Zagreb 31 (1 game in hand)
>
> Osijek have never won the title, Rijeka have won it once, five years ago,
> and Hajduk have been waiting since 2007.

Looks like Dinamo have steadied the ship

1 Dinamo Zagreb 63 (1 game in hand)
2 Osijek 61
3 Hajduk Split 56 (1 game in hand)
4 Rijeka 55

Long postponed match Hajduk vs Dinamo on April 20.

>
> Also, not exactly a surprise, but the currently closest title race in Europe
> is the one in Ukraine:
>
> 1 Shakhtar Donetsk 14-2-1 47-9 38
> 2 Dynamo Kyiv 14-2-1 46-8 38

:-(



Currently the closest league in Europe is my unpredictable old friend, the Polish Ekstraklasa.
With six rounds to go:

Lech Poznań 56 (+34)
Pogoń Szczecin 56 (+30)
Raków Częstochowa 56 (+23)

Pogoń with a historic chance - no team from further north than Poznań has ever won the Polish
championship (other than Szczecin, that includes places like Gdańsk, Gdynia, Bydgoszcz, or Białystok).
(also, the original Pogoń from Lviv/Lwów won the title four times before WWII)
Raków also have never won the championship before.

At the other end of the table, reigning champions Legia have clawed their way out from the relegation
spots and are now comfortably mid-table, but former bigshots Wisła Kraków are still in serious trouble.



Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Monday, April 11, 2022 at 1:47:12 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Tuesday, December 7, 2021 at 10:20:33 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Saturday, December 4, 2021 at 11:12:59 PM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > > On Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 10:29:32 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > > > That was a fun idea at the beginning of last season to
> > > > speculate about potential upsets in the major European
> > > > leagues.
> > > >
> > > 2021/22 edition:
> > Looking around a bit, Croatia (one matchday away from the half-way point)
> > is more interesting than usual:
> >
> > 1 Rijeka 36
> > 2 Osijek 35
> > 3 Hajduk Split 33
> > 4 Dinamo Zagreb 31 (1 game in hand)
> >
> > Osijek have never won the title, Rijeka have won it once, five years ago,
> > and Hajduk have been waiting since 2007.
> Looks like Dinamo have steadied the ship
>
> 1 Dinamo Zagreb 63 (1 game in hand)
> 2 Osijek 61
> 3 Hajduk Split 56 (1 game in hand)
> 4 Rijeka 55
>
> Long postponed match Hajduk vs Dinamo on April 20.

1-0 for Hajduk, decisive goal scored by sorry-but-no World Cup medalist Nikola Kalinić.

1 Dinamo Zagreb 66
2 Osijek 64
3 Hajduk Split 62

5 rounds to go. Dinamo still have to play both of their pursuers, but have both matches at home.


Ciao,
Werner

[Werner Pichler]

Yep, Union SG lost both Championship Play-Off games against Brugge, and now the title's all but
gone - they're 3.5 points back with two matches to go.

Ciao,
Werner

[MH]

>>>>
>>>> 2021/22 edition:
>>>>
>>>> Could Union Saint-Gilloise be for real? Four points clear at the half-point of the season,
>>>> in their first campaign in the top flight since 1973. Proper old-timey club with 11 championships
>>>> to their name between 1904 and 1935, and nothing since.
>>>>
>>>> Of course, there's still the stupid 4-team championship play-off with halving of the points
>>>> awaiting.
>>>
>>> Plus Bruges might have more energy for the league after their CL exit.
>>> I have to confess I had never heard of Union Saint-Gilloise until this
>>> year. I didn't even know St. Gilles was a quartier of Brussels, though I
>>> have spent a lot of time in Brussels because of the in-laws. It is
>>> quite close to Anderlecht, where I have been, but most of the time I
>>> stayed around the centre, or in places like Schaerbeek, Ixelles,
>>> Wezembeek, Uccle, and Woluwe, which is where the various beaux-frères
>>> and belles-soeurs live or have lived.
>>
>> Having extended their lead to nine points around New Year's, SG faltered a little bit due to a
>> number of scoreless draws and the correctly predicted late Brugge surge, but at the end of the
>> regular season they're still five points ahead (if, as logic dictates, they eventually get the three
>> points from their match yesterday against dead last Beerschot that had to be abandoned because
>> of crowd trouble).
>>
>> Of course, halving the points means that with six games among the Top 4 remaining they're
>> now less than three points ahead of a Brugge side that have won their last eight league matches.
>
> Yep, Union SG lost both Championship Play-Off games against Brugge, and now the title's all but
> gone - they're 3.5 points back with two matches to go.

It was even looking as though Anderlecht might pip USG for the second
place, but USG are currently ahead in that match. A point should be
enough.
Bruges already champions, I think, with their win today. (Because of the
rounding issue - the actual table would lead one to believe it was not
over yet)

With no Besiktas players in the CL next year, and no Lille (David), I
guess it is good for Canada that Buchanan and Davies, at least, will
play in that competition (Eustaquio too, except that he is getting very
few minutes for Porto, and would not be surprised if he gets loaned out)
. Though transfers could change a lot of things
>
> Ciao,
> Werner

[Werner Pichler]

On Wednesday, September 26, 2018 at 11:52:43 PM UTC+2, MH wrote:
>
> If we made this a contest (sophisticated or not) who would you predict
> as your best bets to make the CL as outsiders ?


2023/24: Girona City?


Ciao,
Werner

[Futbolmetrix]

I was just about to post the exact same thing, in this exact same
thread. But just two points ahead of Real, and seven ahead of Atleti and
Barca...I don't think they can do the Full Leicester.

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[Werner Pichler]

Could have added Aston Villa, too. Emery really is a great coach (who was treated very
unfairly at Arsenal).

Among other leagues, Croatia might see a change at the top (but Dinamo aren't very far
behind Hajduk), in Hungary there's currently a team that has never won a title in front
(nuclear power-fuelled Paksi FC), and could this finally be the year when Braga break through
to the very top? (probably not)

And the relegation watch is still on for former juggernauts Basel and Lyon (Ajax meanwhile are
comfortably back in the top 5, while PSV are still on track for a perfect season with currently
15 wins out of 15).

Ciao,
Werner

[Mark]

Well, the OP has finally been answered, for 2023.

Huachipato are Champions of Chile! And another outsider, Cobresal, finished as runners-up!