(R/T) Conmebol WCQ'2022, Round 11

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Lléo

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Oct 10, 2021, 11:17:50 PMOct 10
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Today, we had wins for the bottom three sides, while the ones in the
3rd to 7th range all added up to a grand total of ONE point (Colombia
drawing at home). Argentina played excellent football again and got
a dominant win in the derby, while Brasil sees their winning streak
broken, but remains unbeaten. These two are way ahead of the pack in
the table and it doesn't seem like they'll have any bumps in the road
to Qatar.

This was the last of the Covid-postponed rounds, would have been Round
5 in the original schedule. Now, the only rescheduled match still pending
is Brasil-Argentina, to this day still in FIFA's hands.

Bolivia 1-0 Peru

Hard-fought and deserved victory for Bolivia at Estadio Hernando Siles,
in La Paz. Bolivia came out to play, as they do at home, while Peru
approached the game cautiously, trying to save fuel for the second half
due to the altitude. It usually doesn't work, and again it didn't. Peru
was eventually incisive whenever they came out of their shell, but it
didn't happen often enough and Lampe again was at it when they did.
Bolivia had a player sent off on the 76th minute, but five minutes later
a recently subbed in Ramiro Vaca scored their winner.

Media here says it's Bolivia's first win over Peru in 13 years. That
may be technically correct, but it is only so because in the last WCQ
cycle, Bolivia's 2-0 home win over Peru was overturned and awarded 0-3
to the visitors, due to the hosts fielding an inelegible player. Both
sides stay where they previously were in the qualifying table.

Venezuela 2-1 Ecuador

Good win by Venezuela at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, in Caracas. Ecuador
were not up to their high standing in the table and collected yet another
away loss. Ecuador scored first, on a VAR-assisted penalty kick, but
Venezuela equalised at the end of the first half and turned their fortunes
around on a long distance free kick that counted with the generosity of
Ecuadoran goalkeeper Ramirez.

This was a missed opportunity for Ecuador to improve their position in
the middle of the pack before facing a difficult away six-pointer at
Colombia. Venezuela is still at the bottom, but not as far adrift as
they were before.

Colombia 0-0 Brasil

A game of two halves at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla. In the
first half, a visibly nervous and a bit disjointed Colombian team did
little to threaten the visitors, who created the most dangerous chances.
The hosts got their act together in the second half and took over the
initiative. Brasil sat back, took on a few scares but almost stole the
win in counter attacks, forcing a couple of very good saves by Ospina.

Again Colombia stops at home a WCQ winning streak by Brasil at 9.
Although it was yet another draw to their long collection, it was not
a bad result for them, not by a long shot. As for Brasil, although
Neymar was again a non-entity, Raphinha and Antony played well when
they came in and seem to be promising prospects for the near future.

Argentina 3-0 Uruguay

A dominant performance and well-earned victory by Argentina in the
Superclasico at Monumental de Nuñez, Buenos Aires. Goals by Messi and
De Paul in the first half and Lautaro Martínez in the second finished
off La Celeste, who have a lot to thank Muslera for keeping the score
semi-respectable.

Uruguay wasn't that bad, they had their share of opportunities but
Emiliano Martinez came up big too. There was little they could do against
an Argentinian team that is playing the best football in the continent
right now. Uruguay are still in the qualifying area, but they have some
rough waters ahead in the coming rounds. As for Argentina, closing the
gap to Brasil is more or less irrelevant when it comes to qualifying,
but who knows, they might as well do that too.

Chile 2-0 Paraguay

A hard-fought win for Chile on a tough game at Estadio San Carlos de
Apoquindo, in Santiago. La Roja made most of the play and the score was
kept blank in the first half by some good goalkeeping work by Anthony
Silva, but goals by Brereton and Isla in the 67th and 71st minute put
the game beyond Paraguay's reach. Tempers flared somewhat and each side
had a player sent off (Aranguiz for Chile and Alderete for Paraguay),
but Nestor Pitana managed to conduct the game to its end without further
incidents.

Though the results of this round were favourable for Paraguay, they
couldn't take on this opportunity to close the gap to the playoff
spot. Chile remains in 8th, five points off the pace with seven rounds
to go. Although I think their mission is a bit too difficult now, they
still keep a glimmer of hope alive.

Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd]

1 Brasil 28 10 9 1 0 22 3 19
2 Argentina 22 10 6 4 0 18 6 12
3 Ecuador 16 11 5 1 5 20 13 7
4 Uruguay 16 11 4 4 3 13 13 0
5 Colombia 15 11 3 6 2 16 16 0
6 Paraguay 12 11 2 6 3 9 13 -4
7 Peru 11 11 3 2 6 10 18 -8
8 Chile 10 11 2 4 5 11 14 -3
9 Bolivia 9 11 2 3 6 13 25 -12
10 Venezuela 7 11 2 1 8 8 19 -11

Next round to be played in October 14th. In brackets below, the results of
these games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round
robin ones so far):

Bolivia - Paraguay (1-0, 3-1, 4-2, 2-1, 0-0, 0-0). Matchday 4: 2-2

I see this one going pretty much like Bolivia vs Peru. Paraguay is the
better team, but usually struggles in La Paz. Bolivia plays for dignity,
Paraguay needs to keep in touch with the qualifying area, but I don't
think they'll pull this one out. Bolivia to win, say, 1-0 (in soph-terms:
Bolivia 0.55, draw 0.30, Paraguay 0.15).

Colombia - Ecuador (3-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-0, 1-0). Matchday 4: Ecuador 6-1 Colombia

Six-point game at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla. Colombia is on
a streak of 7 WCQ's without a loss, but 5 of these were draws. Ecuador,
otoh, is a very poor visitor: lost 4 out of 5 away in this cycle, winning
only at Bolivia. I think the hosts will have the edge here, they usually
beat Ecuador at home, plus they should be thirsty for revenge for that
6-1 in matchday 4. Colombia to win 2-0 (in soph-terms: Colombia 0.60,
draw 0.25, Ecuador 0.15).

Argentina - Peru (0-0, 3-1, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0). Matchday 4: Peru 0-2 Argentina

Argentina is the better side and, at home, shouldn't drop this one.
It's also a good opportunity for them to further cement their position
in the qualifying area. In Buenos Aires, I don't think Peru will have
what it takes to stop them. Argentina to win 2-0 (in soph-terms: Argentina
0.85, draw 0.10, Peru 0.05).

Chile - Venezuela (3-1, 3-0, 2-2, 2-1, 0-2, 6-0). Matchday 4: Venezuela 2-1 Chile

A key game for Chile's hopes to keep their challenge alive, especially
seeing as how Paraguay and Peru are both on difficult away games on
this round. If they pull it off and results go their way, they might
end the round 2 or 3 points below the playoff spot. Of course, even
though Venezuela are at the bottom and have lost all their away games
so far, Chile should take this one with utmost seriousness. Again at
Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, which may become a "cauldron" for the
hosts, I think they win and keep things interesting. Chile to win 2-1
(in soph-terms: Chile 0.60, draw 0.30, Venezuela 0.10).

Brasil - Uruguay (2-2, n/a, 2-1, 3-3, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 4: Uruguay 0-2 Brasil

It's been a while since Uruguay last beat Brasil, that occasion being on
July 1st, 2001, at El Centenario, in Montevideo. It sounds a bit surprising,
but they are the South American team that are for the longest time without
a win over Brasil in an official game (apart from Venezuela, who never did
that). Plus, they're missing de Arrascaeta, injured in the previous round
against Colombia. All odds seem to be stacked against them, but it is still
a derby, so I can see it being a tough one for Brasil, who aren't being
exactly inspiring in the last few months. I'll call a close 1-0 win for the
hosts (in soph-terms: Brasil 0.40, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.25).


--
Lléo

Mark

unread,
Oct 11, 2021, 12:15:09 PMOct 11
to
On Monday, October 11, 2021 at 4:17:50 AM UTC+1, Lléo wrote:

> Bolivia 1-0 Peru
>
> Hard-fought and deserved victory for Bolivia at Estadio Hernando Siles,
> in La Paz. Bolivia came out to play, as they do at home, while Peru
> approached the game cautiously, trying to save fuel for the second half
> due to the altitude. It usually doesn't work, and again it didn't. Peru
> was eventually incisive whenever they came out of their shell, but it
> didn't happen often enough and Lampe again was at it when they did.
> Bolivia had a player sent off on the 76th minute, but five minutes later
> a recently subbed in Ramiro Vaca scored their winner.
>
> Media here says it's Bolivia's first win over Peru in 13 years. That
> may be technically correct, but it is only so because in the last WCQ
> cycle, Bolivia's 2-0 home win over Peru was overturned and awarded 0-3
> to the visitors, due to the hosts fielding an inelegible player. Both
> sides stay where they previously were in the qualifying table.

Lleo 30 points
Mark 30 points
>
> Venezuela 2-1 Ecuador
>
> Good win by Venezuela at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, in Caracas. Ecuador
> were not up to their high standing in the table and collected yet another
> away loss. Ecuador scored first, on a VAR-assisted penalty kick, but
> Venezuela equalised at the end of the first half and turned their fortunes
> around on a long distance free kick that counted with the generosity of
> Ecuadoran goalkeeper Ramirez.
>
> This was a missed opportunity for Ecuador to improve their position in
> the middle of the pack before facing a difficult away six-pointer at
> Colombia. Venezuela is still at the bottom, but not as far adrift as
> they were before.

Lleo 0
Mark 0
>
> Colombia 0-0 Brasil
>
> A game of two halves at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla. In the
> first half, a visibly nervous and a bit disjointed Colombian team did
> little to threaten the visitors, who created the most dangerous chances.
> The hosts got their act together in the second half and took over the
> initiative. Brasil sat back, took on a few scares but almost stole the
> win in counter attacks, forcing a couple of very good saves by Ospina.
>
> Again Colombia stops at home a WCQ winning streak by Brasil at 9.
> Although it was yet another draw to their long collection, it was not
> a bad result for them, not by a long shot. As for Brasil, although
> Neymar was again a non-entity, Raphinha and Antony played well when
> they came in and seem to be promising prospects for the near future.

Lleo 90
Mark 30
>
> Argentina 3-0 Uruguay
>
> A dominant performance and well-earned victory by Argentina in the
> Superclasico at Monumental de Nuñez, Buenos Aires. Goals by Messi and
> De Paul in the first half and Lautaro Martínez in the second finished
> off La Celeste, who have a lot to thank Muslera for keeping the score
> semi-respectable.
>
> Uruguay wasn't that bad, they had their share of opportunities but
> Emiliano Martinez came up big too. There was little they could do against
> an Argentinian team that is playing the best football in the continent
> right now. Uruguay are still in the qualifying area, but they have some
> rough waters ahead in the coming rounds. As for Argentina, closing the
> gap to Brasil is more or less irrelevant when it comes to qualifying,
> but who knows, they might as well do that too.

Lleo 0
Mark 60
>
> Chile 2-0 Paraguay
>
> A hard-fought win for Chile on a tough game at Estadio San Carlos de
> Apoquindo, in Santiago. La Roja made most of the play and the score was
> kept blank in the first half by some good goalkeeping work by Anthony
> Silva, but goals by Brereton and Isla in the 67th and 71st minute put
> the game beyond Paraguay's reach. Tempers flared somewhat and each side
> had a player sent off (Aranguiz for Chile and Alderete for Paraguay),
> but Nestor Pitana managed to conduct the game to its end without further
> incidents.
>
> Though the results of this round were favourable for Paraguay, they
> couldn't take on this opportunity to close the gap to the playoff
> spot. Chile remains in 8th, five points off the pace with seven rounds
> to go. Although I think their mission is a bit too difficult now, they
> still keep a glimmer of hope alive.

Lleo 0
Mark 0
>
Total points for predictions:
Lleo 120
Mark 120

Yay! We both did as well (or as badly) as each other.

It was a more unpredictable round though.

Mark

unread,
Oct 12, 2021, 9:23:38 AMOct 12
to
On Monday, October 11, 2021 at 4:17:50 AM UTC+1, Lléo wrote:

>
> Bolivia - Paraguay (1-0, 3-1, 4-2, 2-1, 0-0, 0-0). Matchday 4: 2-2
>
> I see this one going pretty much like Bolivia vs Peru. Paraguay is the
> better team, but usually struggles in La Paz. Bolivia plays for dignity,
> Paraguay needs to keep in touch with the qualifying area, but I don't
> think they'll pull this one out. Bolivia to win, say, 1-0 (in soph-terms:
> Bolivia 0.55, draw 0.30, Paraguay 0.15).

1-0
>
> Colombia - Ecuador (3-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-0, 1-0). Matchday 4: Ecuador 6-1 Colombia
>
> Six-point game at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla. Colombia is on
> a streak of 7 WCQ's without a loss, but 5 of these were draws. Ecuador,
> otoh, is a very poor visitor: lost 4 out of 5 away in this cycle, winning
> only at Bolivia. I think the hosts will have the edge here, they usually
> beat Ecuador at home, plus they should be thirsty for revenge for that
> 6-1 in matchday 4. Colombia to win 2-0 (in soph-terms: Colombia 0.60,
> draw 0.25, Ecuador 0.15).

2-0
>
> Argentina - Peru (0-0, 3-1, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0). Matchday 4: Peru 0-2 Argentina
>
> Argentina is the better side and, at home, shouldn't drop this one.
> It's also a good opportunity for them to further cement their position
> in the qualifying area. In Buenos Aires, I don't think Peru will have
> what it takes to stop them. Argentina to win 2-0 (in soph-terms: Argentina
> 0.85, draw 0.10, Peru 0.05).

3-0
>
> Chile - Venezuela (3-1, 3-0, 2-2, 2-1, 0-2, 6-0). Matchday 4: Venezuela 2-1 Chile
>
> A key game for Chile's hopes to keep their challenge alive, especially
> seeing as how Paraguay and Peru are both on difficult away games on
> this round. If they pull it off and results go their way, they might
> end the round 2 or 3 points below the playoff spot. Of course, even
> though Venezuela are at the bottom and have lost all their away games
> so far, Chile should take this one with utmost seriousness. Again at
> Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, which may become a "cauldron" for the
> hosts, I think they win and keep things interesting. Chile to win 2-1
> (in soph-terms: Chile 0.60, draw 0.30, Venezuela 0.10).

3-1
>
> Brasil - Uruguay (2-2, n/a, 2-1, 3-3, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 4: Uruguay 0-2 Brasil
>
> It's been a while since Uruguay last beat Brasil, that occasion being on
> July 1st, 2001, at El Centenario, in Montevideo. It sounds a bit surprising,
> but they are the South American team that are for the longest time without
> a win over Brasil in an official game (apart from Venezuela, who never did
> that). Plus, they're missing de Arrascaeta, injured in the previous round
> against Colombia. All odds seem to be stacked against them, but it is still
> a derby, so I can see it being a tough one for Brasil, who aren't being
> exactly inspiring in the last few months. I'll call a close 1-0 win for the
> hosts (in soph-terms: Brasil 0.40, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.25).
>
> So Uruguay play Argentina away, and Brazil away in consecutive matches! And Uruguay's next match after this is....at home against Argentina!

3-1

Jesper Lauridsen

unread,
Oct 14, 2021, 4:12:36 PMOct 14
to
On 2021-10-11, Lléo <llb....@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Brasil - Uruguay (2-2, n/a, 2-1, 3-3, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 4: Uruguay 0-2 Brasil

Crazy scheduling. Fabinho and Allison wil (presumably) line up here,
and then 11 hours later, their club team kicks off a league
match. Such conflicts shouldn't happen.

Jesper Lauridsen

unread,
Oct 16, 2021, 8:31:51 AMOct 16
to
35 hours! I went full Homer there.

Point still stands.

Mark

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Oct 16, 2021, 4:44:06 PMOct 16
to
On Tuesday, October 12, 2021 at 2:23:38 PM UTC+1, Mark wrote:
> On Monday, October 11, 2021 at 4:17:50 AM UTC+1, Lléo wrote:
>
> >
> > Bolivia - Paraguay (1-0, 3-1, 4-2, 2-1, 0-0, 0-0). Matchday 4: 2-2
> >
> > I see this one going pretty much like Bolivia vs Peru. Paraguay is the
> > better team, but usually struggles in La Paz. Bolivia plays for dignity,
> > Paraguay needs to keep in touch with the qualifying area, but I don't
> > think they'll pull this one out. Bolivia to win, say, 1-0 (in soph-terms:
> > Bolivia 0.55, draw 0.30, Paraguay 0.15).
> 1-0

60 points each
> >
> > Colombia - Ecuador (3-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-0, 1-0). Matchday 4: Ecuador 6-1 Colombia
> >
> > Six-point game at Estadio Metropolitano de Barranquilla. Colombia is on
> > a streak of 7 WCQ's without a loss, but 5 of these were draws. Ecuador,
> > otoh, is a very poor visitor: lost 4 out of 5 away in this cycle, winning
> > only at Bolivia. I think the hosts will have the edge here, they usually
> > beat Ecuador at home, plus they should be thirsty for revenge for that
> > 6-1 in matchday 4. Colombia to win 2-0 (in soph-terms: Colombia 0.60,
> > draw 0.25, Ecuador 0.15).
> 2-0

0 points each
> >
> > Argentina - Peru (0-0, 3-1, 2-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0). Matchday 4: Peru 0-2 Argentina
> >
> > Argentina is the better side and, at home, shouldn't drop this one.
> > It's also a good opportunity for them to further cement their position
> > in the qualifying area. In Buenos Aires, I don't think Peru will have
> > what it takes to stop them. Argentina to win 2-0 (in soph-terms: Argentina
> > 0.85, draw 0.10, Peru 0.05).
> 3-0

Lleo 85 points
Mark 70 points
> >
> > Chile - Venezuela (3-1, 3-0, 2-2, 2-1, 0-2, 6-0). Matchday 4: Venezuela 2-1 Chile
> >
> > A key game for Chile's hopes to keep their challenge alive, especially
> > seeing as how Paraguay and Peru are both on difficult away games on
> > this round. If they pull it off and results go their way, they might
> > end the round 2 or 3 points below the playoff spot. Of course, even
> > though Venezuela are at the bottom and have lost all their away games
> > so far, Chile should take this one with utmost seriousness. Again at
> > Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, which may become a "cauldron" for the
> > hosts, I think they win and keep things interesting. Chile to win 2-1
> > (in soph-terms: Chile 0.60, draw 0.30, Venezuela 0.10).
> 3-1

Lleo 70
Mark 85
> >
> > Brasil - Uruguay (2-2, n/a, 2-1, 3-3, 1-1, n/a). Matchday 4: Uruguay 0-2 Brasil
> >
> > It's been a while since Uruguay last beat Brasil, that occasion being on
> > July 1st, 2001, at El Centenario, in Montevideo. It sounds a bit surprising,
> > but they are the South American team that are for the longest time without
> > a win over Brasil in an official game (apart from Venezuela, who never did
> > that). Plus, they're missing de Arrascaeta, injured in the previous round
> > against Colombia. All odds seem to be stacked against them, but it is still
> > a derby, so I can see it being a tough one for Brasil, who aren't being
> > exactly inspiring in the last few months. I'll call a close 1-0 win for the
> > hosts (in soph-terms: Brasil 0.40, draw 0.35, Uruguay 0.25).
> >
> > So Uruguay play Argentina away, and Brazil away in consecutive matches! And Uruguay's next match after this is....at home against Argentina!
>
> 3-1

Lleo 50
Mark 85

Total:

Lleo 265
Mark 300
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