The 2022 World Cup Best Team-Odds

[Ion Saliu]

Ultra Axiomatics, Axiomatiques, Axiomatischen, Axiomáticos, Assiomatici, Axiomatici et al.:

These are the odds as of the time of this writing. There are variations across the board. I selected the best odds for each team. The calculations follow the American method.

Brazil +400 (e.g., bet 100 and get 400 back if you win)
France +600
Argentina +650
England +700
Spain +800
Germany +1000
Belgium +1200
Netherlands +1200

Portugal +1200
Denmark +2800
Croatia +5000
Uruguay +5000
Senegal +8000
Switzerland +8000
Mexico +10000
USA +10000

Poland +10000
Serbia +10000
Wales +10000
Ghana +15000
Ecuador +15000
Morocco +20000
Cameroon +25000
Canada +25000

Japan +25000
Qatar +25000
South Korea +25000
Tunisia +30000
Australia +40000
Costa Rica +50000
Iran +50000
Saudi Arabia +50000


Most Popular Bets

Netherlands (12/1)
England (9/1)
Serbia (250/1)
Argentina (13/2)
France (11/2)

According to a recent Netflix documentary (“FIFA Uncovered”), the Qataris bribed FIFA executives to the tune of $1.5 million each. If them Qatari oil billionaires bet the same amount on Qatar to win the 2022 World Cup… they won’t make that much! Just 375 million. Less than what they paid for 2 players in Paris! But, boy, oh boy, that would be the END of FIFA Mafia!!!

Looking at the most popular bets, Serbia looks extremely attractive. The way they handled Portugal on the road… you know! However, Netherlands at 12/1 is quite realistic. After defeats in three finals, the time to win it all might come in the desert.

Lest we forget da Blitzkrieg!

• https://groups.google.com/g/rec.sport.soccer/c/hpVZvopriD0?hl=en
• 'FIFA Uncovered' — Documented Corruption

[Real Mardin]

Surely you’d have to mitigate a bet on Serbia by at least making it each way or by betting on them to get to the semi finals? Attractive odds but if they don’t win 250 times nothing pays out nothing.


RM

[Ion Saliu]

Correctomundo, aksiyomatik! If you lose your only bet, you certainly win nothing. Hence the saying: “Don’t put your eggs in one basket!” The same goes with investments: Diversify!

A bet on Serbia is attractive because of reward. Kinduv like Leicester winning the Premier League. Rare, but it happens.

Bet on more options, making sure a potential win covers the cost and assures a profit. Still, nothing is guaranteed 100%. There is no absolute certainty in the Universe.

Best of luck, aksiyomatik!

• https://saliu.com/Saliu2.htm
• Theory of Probability, Mathematics, Degree of Certainty, Chance

[Ion Saliu]

After the 2018 Russia World Cup, I published an unusual way to bet –

• In the group stage, bet on the UNDERDOG in all matches.

In total: 48 matches. Bet 100 on each match. Total cost: 4800. Calculate payouts for 100-bets.

In 2018, matches like Germany – Mexico and Germany South Korea offered great payouts. There were more surprises.

In Qatar 2022, just two matches in two days offered BIG surprises and BIG payouts:

• Saudi Arabia – Argentina +2500
• Japan – Germany +650

So far, a combined payout of 3150.

Most people bet big on FAVORITES. By comparison, this type of betting would have lost 5 of the first 12 matches, winning 7. The payout, however, would not have offset the cost.

No decision at this time of writing — what type of betting offers more bang for the buck?

Let’s see what happens at the end of the group stage. Go further, and bet the same way in the knockout stage.

[Ion Saliu]

After the 2018 Russia World Cup, I published an unusual way to bet –

• In the group stage, bet on the UNDERDOG in all matches.

In total: 48 matches. Bet 100 on each match. Total cost: 4800. Calculate payouts for 100-bets.

In 2018, matches like Germany – Mexico and Germany South Korea offered great payouts. There were more surprises.

Qatar 2022, the group stage
----------------------------------
The first round offered BIG surprises and BIG payouts:

Saudi Arabia – Argentina +2500
Japan – Germany +650

• Combined payout: 3150.
• In total: 16 matches. Bet 100 in each match. Total cost: 1600.
• Result: +1550

Most people bet big on FAVORITES. By comparison, the result of this type of betting:
• 9 wins
• 7 losses

The payout when the favorite wins averages out to +150 (rarely +200).
• Result: 1350 – 1600 = –250 average; 1800 – 1600 = +200 at best

[Ion Saliu]

The 2nd round
-------------------

Betting on the UNDERDOG
----------------------------------
Iran – Wales +300
Australia – Tunisia +270
Costa Rica – Japan +800
Morocco – Belgium +300
Ghana – South Korea +350

• Combined payout: 2020.

• In total: 16 matches. Bet 100 in each match. Total cost: 1600.

• Result: 2020 – 1600 = +420

Betting on the FAVORITE
----------------------------------
• 7 wins
• 9 losses
• Result: ~1000 – 1600 = ~–600 average

The UNDERDOG betting system is already ahead after the first two rounds. Regardless of what happens after the 3rd round, the system cannot lose. +1550 + 420 = 1970 – 1600 = ~+350. But there are 16 more games to play. Every time an underdog wins, it is a BONUS. Something like:

Senegal – Ecuador +250
Qatar – Netherlands +1500
Iran – USA +350
Wales – England +700

(Just day 1 of round #3 group stage. The underdog is listed first.)

Be prepared to see LOWER payouts for underdogs from now on!!! Qatar – Netherlands should have been +2500! Them bookies forgot what I published after World Cup Russia 2018. Some accused me of “collusion”… with Vlad “Dracula” Putin. Just kidding, ol’ son of a gun Joe… old prune Frau…

BBRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

[Ion Saliu]

The 3rd round

-------------------

Betting on the UNDERDOG
----------------------------------

Senegal – Ecuador +250
Australia – Denmark +600
Tunisia – France +600
Japan – Spain +700
South Korea – Portugal +450
Cameroon – Brazil +1000
Switzerland – Serbia +180

• Combined payout: +3780.

• In total: 16 matches. Bet 100 in each match. Total cost: 1600.

• Result: 3780 – 1600 = +2180

Betting on the FAVORITE
----------------------------------

• 8 wins
• 8 losses
• Result: ~1600 – 1600 = 0 ~ average… AT BEST, actually…

WOW! How GREAT can this system be??? They will fight this system badly next time… in 2026…

TOTAL PAYOUT: +1550 + 420 + 2180 = 4150 ~ at least

Over 85% ROI (Return On Investment)! Unheard of!

System’s codename: ‘Yeu Yon-Yayio’ (inspired by the upsets provided by South Korea in WC 2018 and 2022). Read:
• https://groups.google.com/g/rec.sport.soccer/c/KVuy6RENJsM/m/GKEH3ntxCQAJ
• The World Cup 2022 Brackets

Betting on the FAVORITE lost at least 500. The payouts are quite low… but the risk is high!

The ‘Betting on the UNDERDOG’ system stops here. It is not quite as efficient in the eliminatory stages. The teams are much closer in “value”. Therefore, the payouts are lower. You can check the results in the next post. Just out of curiosity…

The ‘Betting on the UNDERDOG’ system might be of interest in internal competitions as well. The Italian championship is notorious for its “unpredictability”. That is, there are quite a few upsets in Serie A and also Serie B. The payouts make an “upset” equal to 5-6 “normal” (expected) results.

[Ion Saliu]

The ‘Betting on the UNDERDOG’ system in the round of 16

As per my previous, this system loses its efficiency shown in the first round. The teams are much closer in “value”. Therefore, the payouts are lower. Also, the powerhouses are more focused in the knockout stages.

Check it for yourself.

The odds as of December 3, 2022:

United States – Netherlands +400
Australia – Argentina +1550
Poland – France +1100
Senegal – England +650
Japan – Croatia +300
South Korea – Brazil +1300
Morocco – Spain +550
Switzerland – Portugal +450

[Ion Saliu]

United States – Netherlands 1 – 3 = system fail
Australia – Argentina 1 – 2 = system fail
Poland – France 1 – 3 = system fail
Senegal – England 0 – 3 = system fail

Japan – Croatia +300
South Korea – Brazil +1300
Morocco – Spain +550
Switzerland – Portugal +450

Sfârtaie (Quarterfinals)
------------------------------
Netherlands – Argentina
England – France

[Ion Saliu]

Japan – Croatia 2 – 4 (PK) = system fail
South Korea – Brazil 1 – 4 = system fail

Morocco – Spain +550
Switzerland – Portugal +450


Sfârtaie (Quarterfinals)
------------------------------
Netherlands – Argentina
England – France

Croatia – Brazil

[Ion Saliu]

Morocco – Spain 3 – 0 (PK) = system fail (the ‘underdog’ didn’t win upright)
Switzerland – Portugal 1 – 6 = system fail

As expected, the ‘Betting on the UNDERDOG’ system lost in the round of 16. Not a single winner. However, the ‘Betting on the FAVORITE’ system was a loser as well. And that’s how the vast majority of players bet. And that’s how the bookies make their profits. For without said profits, football/soccer would have a very hard life in the struggle for survival.

Sfârtaie (Quarterfinals)
------------------------------
Croatia – Brazil – Friday, 12/09, 18:00
Netherlands – Argentina – Friday, 12/09, 22:00
Morocco – Portugal – Saturday, 12/10, 18:00
England – France – Saturday, 12/10, 22:00

I CORRECTED the first edition of the brackets I published just before the 2022 World Cup started. The bracket has been updated up to Sfârtaie (Quarterfinals).
• https://saliu.com/images/Qatar2022Brackets.jpg

[Ion Saliu]

On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 11:13:39 PM UTC+2, Ion Saliu wrote:
> United States – Netherlands 1 – 3 = system fail
> Australia – Argentina 1 – 2 = system fail
> Poland – France 1 – 3 = system fail
> Senegal – England 0 – 3 = system fail
> Japan – Croatia 2 – 4 (PK) = system fail
> South Korea – Brazil 1 – 4 = system fail
> Morocco – Spain 3 – 0 (PK) = system fail (the ‘underdog’ didn’t win upright)
> Switzerland – Portugal 1 – 6 = system fail
>
> As expected, the ‘Betting on the UNDERDOG’ system lost in the round of 16. Not a single winner. However, the ‘Betting on the FAVORITE’ system was a loser as well. And that’s how the vast majority of players bet. And that’s how the bookies make their profits. For without said profits, football/soccer would have a very hard life in the struggle for survival.
>
> Sfârtaie (Quarterfinals)
> ------------------------------
> Croatia – Brazil – Friday, 12/09, 18:00
> Netherlands – Argentina – Friday, 12/09, 22:00
> Morocco – Portugal – Saturday, 12/10, 18:00
> England – France – Saturday, 12/10, 22:00
>
> I CORRECTED the first edition of the brackets I published just before the 2022 World Cup started. The bracket has been updated up to Sfârtaie (Quarterfinals).
> • https://saliu.com/images/Qatar2022Brackets.jpg

Sfârtaie (Quarterfinals)
------------------------------

Croatia – Brazil +700

Netherlands – Argentina +250

Morocco – Portugal +425
• "Do not bear the burden of the world [cup], for it belongs to Allah, and do not bear the burden on livelihood, for it is from Allah, and do not bear the burden of future, for it is in Allah's hand, only bear one concern, how do you please Allah? Because if you please Allah, He will be pleased with you, your satisfaction, your wealth, and enough for you"
• Beat Portugal, England/France, Croatia/Brazil/Argentina/Netherlands! May your livelihood improve 200 times (Morocco +20000 to win World Cup 2022)!

England – France +200

[Mark]

On Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 12:35:59 PM UTC, ions...@gmail.com wrote:

> > As expected, the ‘Betting on the UNDERDOG’ system lost in the round of 16. Not a single winner. However, the ‘Betting on the FAVORITE’ system was a loser as well. And that’s how the vast majority of players bet. And that’s how the bookies make their profits. For without said profits, football/soccer would have a very hard life in the struggle for survival.
> >

Hang on. How can both ways lose? Either one of them has got to win, or both of them have got to break even surely?

[Ion Saliu]

M’ritser:

Put that pipe away… that bottle too!

It is NOT a zero-sum game. It’s all about the difference in payouts. An ‘upset’ (‘underdog’ win) brings, on average, the payout of 5-6 ‘normal’ (‘favorite’ win) games. Argentina’s loss to the Saudis captured a 2500 payout. Germany’s loss to South Korea in 2018 brought some 5000!

The ‘Betting on the FAVORITE’ system requires, to a high degree, winning ALL games. Otherwise, the wins do not cover the cost. There are games when the ‘favorite’ brings barely 10-20 for 100.

In our case, in the round of 16, the ‘Betting on the FAVORITE’ system missed two games (those marked as ‘PK’: ties after 90 minutes). The wins by Argentina and Brazil had very low payouts.

In the group stage, total payouts “earned” by “UNDERDOGS” surpassed total cost (4800) by some 4100! The “FAVORITES” lost at least 500 for the same cost. In the round of 16, however, the “UNDERDOGS” lost more than the “FAVORITES”. That’s the reason why I stated that the ‘Betting on the UNDERDOGS’ system should NOT be applied after the group stage.

The same was true after the 2018 Russia World Cup and the 2021 European Championship.

Corollary:
• Play the ‘Betting on the UNDERDOGS’ system in the group stages in order to make a profit.

It is the ONLY way to bet profitably in soccer final tournaments. (Applicable also to highly unpredictable leagues like Serie A.) “Going with the trend” (“betting on the FAVORITE”) is a losing method.

Again: Put that pipe away… that bottle too! Otherwise, don’t you dare talk to me again! I’ll toss you to that rehab Clinique, as I did with Blintser (Narcochiloco)…

[Mark]

I haven't got a pipe or a bottle. I think I can see why it's possible for both ways to lose now. Maybe I'll run through an example in my head some time to try to make sure it's clear.

[Ion Saliu]

Great! That’s what axiomaticism is all about! We put the Truth above anybody and anything.

You can test both systems in Serie A, until another major final tournament in soccer.

Boa sorte!

[Ion Saliu]

Sfârtaie (Quarterfinals)
-----------------------------------
Croatia – Brazil 5 – 3 (PK)
Netherlands – Argentina 5 – 6 (PK)

• Without a doubt, the biggest day in World Cup history!

Morocco – Portugal +425
England – France +200


Semifinals
-----------------
Croatia – Argentina – Tuesday, 12/13, 18:00
Morocco/Portugal – England/France – Wednesday, 12/14, 22:00

[Ion Saliu]

Sfârtaie (Quarterfinals)
-------------------------------------

Croatia – Brazil 5 – 3 (PK)
Netherlands – Argentina 5 – 6 (PK)

• Without a doubt, the biggest day in World Cup history!

Morocco – Portugal 1 – 0 +425
• "Do not bear the burden of the world [cup], for it belongs to Allah, and only bear one concern, how do you please Allah? Because if you please Allah, He will be pleased with you, your satisfaction, and your glorious victory!”
• Morocco = Hungary-1954 of the 21st century.

England – France +200


Semifinals
-----------------

Croatia – Argentina – Tuesday, 12/13, 22:00
Morocco – England/France – Wednesday, 12/14, 22:00

[Ion Saliu]

England – France 0 – 1

>
>
> Semifinals
> -----------------
> Croatia – Argentina – Tuesday, 12/13, 22:00

Morocco – France – Wednesday, 12/14, 22:00

As they chant in Paris: "Allah al-Bakr". Morocco is better suited in this part of the world... hope so... on behalf of those who put the money where their mouths are...

[Ion Saliu]

Semifinals – Odds
------------------------
Croatia – Argentina +375
Morocco – France +550

[Ion Saliu]

Semifinals
-----------------
Croatia – Argentina 0 – 3
Morocco – France 0 – 2

3rd Place “Little” Final
------------------------------
Morocco – Croatia – Saturday, 12/17/2022


The FINAL
-----------------
Argentina – France – Sunday, 12/18/2022

[Ion Saliu]

Based on the pre-tournament odds, France was #2, and Argentina #3:

France +600
Argentina +650

Them bookies are the best odds calculators, ‘cuz it’s all about their monies. Them bettors should always keep that in mind. But if they want to win, really win, only the gambling system presented here works:

‘Betting on the UNDERDOG’.

[Ion Saliu]

Semifinals
-----------------
Argentina – Croatia 3 – 0
France – Morocco 2 – 0

3rd Place “Little” Final
------------------------------

Croatia – Morocco 2 – 1


The FINAL
-----------------
ARGENTINA – France 7 – 5 (PK)

[Ion Saliu]

I hold in low regards a “champion” determined by a shootout. We should strongly recommend to FIFA and all continental federations to change the rule.

• If the final ends in a tie after 120 minutes, the match should be rescheduled for 3 days later.
• If the second match ends up in a tie again, the champion should be determined in a penalty shootout.
• The champion determined after two final matches will deserve a lot more of credibility and respect.

Think of the 1970 Brazil. Victories on the line, including a clear win (4 – 1) against a two-time world champion. Hence, that national team is considered the best of all time.

UEFA should start right away, in the Champions League.

[Ion Saliu]

Mea culpa! I fell into the sin of sexism. I wrote in 2022 about the “world cup 2022” as if it were… coed! I meant “FIFA Men’s World Cup 2022”. Please consider the correction as very important.

• https://groups.google.com/g/rec.sport.soccer/c/ryCDWmSV6wM
• FIFA Women's World Cup 2023