International call-ups, from a Fantasy Scout point of view
milivella
Data courtesy of Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina_national_football_team#Current_Squad
etc. so take them with a grain of salt (better two, I've done it in a
hurry).
If you don't know what Fantasy Scout is and you want to know check
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/
1. Eligible players
Argentina
GK Mariano Andújar
GK Federico Vilar
DF Emiliano Papa
DF Marcos Angeleri
DF Juan Forlín
MF Daniel Montenegro
Brazil
DF Miranda
MF Felipe Melo
England
GK Robert Green
GK Ben Foster
DF Phil Jagielka
DF Leighton Baines
FW Carlton Cole
France
GK Cédric Carrasso
DF Rod Fanni
DF Adil Rami
MF Abou Diaby
FW Guillaume Hoarau
Germany
GK Tim Wiese
DF Marcel Schäfer
FW Stefan Kießling
Italy
DF Salvatore Bocchetti
MF Matteo Brighi
MF Pasquale Foggia
FW Giampaolo Pazzini
Netherlands
GK Michel Vorm
DF Gregory van der Wiel
DF Edson Braafheid
Spain
GK Diego López
2. Fate of picked players
OK = called-up players
KO = players _who are over-23_ and haven't been called-up
Alberto:
- OK: Lavezzi
Alessandro:
- OK: Quagliarella, Rossi
- KO: Bianchi, Rosina
Andrea:
- OK: Anderson, Dossena, Gago, Marcelo, Montolivo, Motta
- KO: Flamini, Maggio, Nocerino, Rafinha
Benny:
- OK: Clichy, Mandanda, Marcellis, Pique
- KO: Bentley, Coda, D'Agostino, de la Red, Gignac, Guarente, Maidana,
Raggi, Turner
Daniele:
- OK: Cazorla, Guiza
- KO: Amauri, Borriello, Cavenaghi, Gomis, Thiago Neves
Enzo:
- OK: Buquets, Llorente
Generoso:
- OK: Di Maria
Jesus:
- OK: Alexandre Pato
- KO: Ceara, Hernanes, Leandro Lima, Renan
Michael:
- OK: Beck, Lloris, Tasci
- KO: Geromel, Lell, Valbuena
Tom:
- KO: Navas, Pelletieri
William:
- OK: Arbeloa
- KO: Compper, Young
Homework: who is doing well? ;)
--
Cheers
milivella
MH
he was not on your list (or rather Futbolmeritrix's) in the squad - a
late addition ?
Gignac was on the original listed posted earlier ?
milivella
> milivella wrote:
> > France
> > GK Cédric Carrasso
> > DF Rod Fanni
> > DF Adil Rami
> > MF Abou Diaby
> > FW Guillaume Hoarau
>
> he was not on your list (or rather Futbolmeritrix's) in the squad - a
> late addition ?
Yes, he has replaced Anelka:
http://www.fff.fr/bleus/actu/528324.shtml
Futbolmetrix 1-1 Wikipedia (HT)
> > Benny:
> > - OK: Clichy, Mandanda, Marcellis, Pique
> > - KO: Bentley, Coda, D'Agostino, de la Red, Gignac, Guarente, Maidana,
> > Raggi, Turner
>
> Gignac was on the original listed posted earlier ?
Yes, you are right: Gignac is OK.
MH 1-0 milivella (FT, I hope!)
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> 1. Eligible players
I don't see any interesting enough player. I've briefly considered
> DF Emiliano Papa
> MF Felipe Melo
> FW Giampaolo Pazzini
but I am not sold about any of them.
> 2. Fate of picked players
OK, let's go.
> Alberto:
> - OK: Lavezzi
Good player, but really hard competition in the NT: Messi, Tevez,
Aguero...
Alberto's fate will be determined by the growth of Krkic and Santon
(and by the players he'll pick in the future, of course!).
> Alessandro:
> - OK: Quagliarella, Rossi
I don't know how many caps Quagliarella has in his future; he's a good
player, but not a great one. But Rossi has been a great pick.
> - KO: Bianchi, Rosina
Zero (Bianchi) or almost zero (Rosina) hopes for them.
Alessandro should keep picking reds (Rossis), not pale pinks
(Rosinas).
> Andrea:
> - OK: Anderson, Dossena, Gago, Marcelo, Montolivo, Motta
I saw Gago as my best pick, the only sure starter for years to come.
But he's having a dip in form lately, and I have a bad feeling about
this... :( Marcelo will probably take Gago's place in my heart.
Anderson, Dossena and Montolivo are not loved here, and I can't defend
them much, but I hope that one or two of them will grow, first of all
psychologically. Motta has been called sooner than I expected. :)
> - KO: Flamini, Maggio, Nocerino, Rafinha
I have hopes for Flamini (maybe after a big failure for Domenech's
France?) more than for Maggio. Nocerino and Rafinha... nobody is
perfect.
The good news is that IMHO I've kept the same quality of picks before
(Anderson, Gago vs. Flamini, Rafinha) and after (Marcelo, Motta vs.
Maggio, Nocerino) the jump from 2-3 scouts to 9+ scouts. But if Gago
flops I don't see the really good player that you should have picked
if you go with the "many picks" strategy.
> Benny:
> - OK: Clichy, Mandanda, Marcellis, Pique
...and Gignac. I really like Clichy, Mandanda and Pique.
> - KO: Bentley, Coda, D'Agostino, de la Red,
> Guarente, Maidana,
> Raggi, Turner
A bit too many KOs, but at least Bentley and de la Red are not outside
the NT circle.
Benny has maybe called too many players when he entered the game, but
he will own the most part of the Italian NT in 2014 or so (e.g.
Acquafresca and Balotelli)... I maybe see more starters and less
almost-starters in his roster than in mine (comparison due to the
similar number of picks).
> Daniele:
> - OK: Cazorla, Guiza
Cazorla: great. Guiza: I don't think that he will do much for
Daniele's score in the end.
> - KO: Amauri, Borriello, Cavenaghi, Gomis, Thiago Neves
Here are some of the short-term picks that Daniele did joining the
game... Guiza turned out better than them. Amauri could be a really
good pick. As I've said, I don't see a bright future for Borriello.
We've written enough about Gomis and Thiago Neves. ;)
The story won't be complete until Daniele's long-term picks (e.g.
Marchisio, Santacroce) will kick in. But the fact that he's already
3rd (2nd this season) means that he's IMHO the man to beat.
> Enzo:
> - OK: Buquets, Llorente
I really like Busquets. Llorente is a bit of a trick pick (if I'm not
wrong, Enzo thinks that he will never be a starter, but will score
enough points): I don't like such a strategy, but it could turn out to
be a winning one. And Llorente is still young, anyway.
Last word about Enzo: really good start, mate!
> Generoso:
> - OK: Di Maria
Another Argentinian midget... And I don't like him that much, to boot.
But I can't help to recognize a good pick.
My opinion about Generoso's picks: Aissati, Piatti, Salvio, Zarate...
Some of them will become great names. Dangerous opponent.
> Jesus:
> - OK: Alexandre Pato
Greatest pick so far, and a meaningful part of Jesus' average score
(he hasn't picked many players)!
> - KO: Ceara, Hernanes, Leandro Lima, Renan
Hernanes will play for NT, don't know about the others.
Jesus is limiting himself to the league that he knows better: if he'll
be able to be ahead on the right Brazilian youngsters, he will surely
fight for the first positions.
Here I must cite Mark, even if he has no OK or KO because the players
he picked are too young... I fear that he knows football too well to
have not picked good players!
> Michael:
> - OK: Beck, Lloris, Tasci
> - KO: Geromel, Lell, Valbuena
I know that, even if I don't know much about them, the players picked
by Michael are always good. He will top the table sooner or later.
> Tom:
> - KO: Navas, Pelletieri
Navas is good, and Tom has some great prospects too: Agbonlahor and
Milner to name just two of them.
> William:
> - OK: Arbeloa
William has taken the "few picks, but good" way. Arbeloa is good, so
William is right.
> - KO: Compper, Young
I'm sure that Ashley Young will be back in from and in NT soon.
So William too is an hard obstacle to me being #1. ;)
--
Cheers
milivella
Benny
> From : mili...@gmail.com
> Benny has maybe called too many players when he entered the game, but
> he will own the most part of the Italian NT in 2014 or so (e.g.
> Acquafresca and Balotelli)... I maybe see more starters and less
> almost-starters in his roster than in mine (comparison due to the
> similar number of picks).
Balotelli and Acquafresca would appear to be dead certs to make the
grade to the full national team. De Ceglie, Coda and Guarante are
longshots. It's the two Inter strikers, the Brazilians Keirrison and
Lulinha, Pique and Mark Noble (who I expect will become the long-term
replacement for Lampard in the national team) that I'm banking on to
become my consistent points scorers.
http://soccer-europe.com
Rss feed : http://soccer-europe.com/RSS/News.xml
MH
milivella wrote:
> My two cents (showing my deep ignorance):
>
>
>
>>Michael:
>>- OK: Beck, Lloris, Tasci
>>- KO: Geromel, Lell, Valbuena
>
>
> I know that, even if I don't know much about them, the players picked
> by Michael are always good. He will top the table sooner or later.
I doubt it very much. Some of my earlier picks were poor in retrospect,
such as Valbuena and Lell. I would be in favour of a rule allowing us to
drop one player per year !
I expect Tasci and Khedira will get caps, and Beck seems like a good
prospect. Lloris is better than Mandanda and younger. Remy is supposed
to be the new Henry but we'll see. Most of the others are fairly high
risk. Although Geromel and Renato Augusto have been consistently good in
the Bundesliga, they may never get capped if they don't become more
visible by moving to higher profile teams.
Futbolmetrix
news:0e51682f-b8e1-494f...@w9g2000yqa.googlegroups.com...
>
>> DF Emiliano Papa
>> MF Felipe Melo
>> FW Giampaolo Pazzini
> but I am not sold about any of them.
Agreed. I don't think Pazzini will go much beyond 20 caps and a couple of
goals. There are so many middle of the pack defensive midfielders in Brazil,
I can't see Felipe Melo making much of an impact.
> Alberto's fate will be determined by the growth of Krkic and Santon
> (and by the players he'll pick in the future, of course!).
Santon could very well be a super-stud, in the 100+ point range.
>> Alessandro:
>> - OK: Quagliarella, Rossi
>
> I don't know how many caps Quagliarella has in his future; he's a good
> player, but not a great one. But Rossi has been a great pick.
Rossi, great pick. Quagliarella will earn a few more caps and goals in this
cycle, but then is likely to fade away. Still, a likely 20-point getter.
Question is: should you pack your squad with a lot of assured 20-pointers,
or gamble on the potential 100-pointers?
>> Andrea:
>> - OK: Anderson, Dossena, Gago, Marcelo, Montolivo, Motta
Motta could very well be your best bet in this pack, especially considering
the dearth of talent in that position.
> Benny has maybe called too many players when he entered the game, but
> he will own the most part of the Italian NT in 2014 or so (e.g.
> Acquafresca and Balotelli)... I maybe see more starters and less
> almost-starters in his roster than in mine (comparison due to the
> similar number of picks).
I'm not so hot on Acquafresca. Scored a bunch of goals at U-21 level, is
scoring a bunch of goals (but not too many) at a lower-midtable club. Can he
really make the step up to the next level? At the same stage of their
career, Gilardino was better by a country mile (Pazzini too).
Balotelli: potentially a 100-pointer, but will he screw his head up the
right direction, or will he become the new Cassano?
>> Daniele:
>> - OK: Cazorla, Guiza
>
> Cazorla: great. Guiza: I don't think that he will do much for
> Daniele's score in the end.
Useful 20-pointers, must keep the score chugging alonng.
>> - KO: Amauri, Borriello, Cavenaghi, Gomis, Thiago Neves
>
> Here are some of the short-term picks that Daniele did joining the
> game... Guiza turned out better than them. Amauri could be a really
> good pick.
But he must get his act and documents together and start getting caps. He
only has one or two cycles ahead of him. A potential 40-pointer.
> As I've said, I don't see a bright future for Borriello.
> We've written enough about Gomis and Thiago Neves. ;)
Thiago Neves will make a comeback!
> The story won't be complete until Daniele's long-term picks (e.g.
> Marchisio, Santacroce) will kick in. But the fact that he's already
> 3rd (2nd this season) means that he's IMHO the man to beat.
Rubbish. Santacroce has already gravitated out of the NT, and I don't have
any real potential 100-pointers on my roster. Marchisio is good, but
surprisingly the central midfield position in Italy is quite crowded these
days. Pirlo and Gattuso have still a few years left in them, then there's De
Rossi, Montolivo, Aquilani, now even Palombo and Brighi.
>> Jesus:
>> - OK: Alexandre Pato
>
> Greatest pick so far,
100-pointer for sure.
D
Futbolmetrix
news:0e51682f-b8e1-494f...@w9g2000yqa.googlegroups.com...
>
>> MF Felipe Melo
>> FW Giampaolo Pazzini
> but I am not sold about any of them.
Agreed. I don't think Pazzini will go much beyond 20 caps and a couple of
goals. There are so many middle of the pack defensive midfielders in Brazil,
I can't see Felipe Melo making much of an impact.
> Alberto's fate will be determined by the growth of Krkic and Santon
> (and by the players he'll pick in the future, of course!).
Santon could very well be a super-stud, in the 100+ point range.
>> Alessandro:
>> - OK: Quagliarella, Rossi
>
> I don't know how many caps Quagliarella has in his future; he's a good
> player, but not a great one. But Rossi has been a great pick.
Rossi, great pick. Quagliarella will earn a few more caps and goals in this
cycle, but then is likely to fade away. Still, a likely 20-point getter.
Question is: should you pack your squad with a lot of assured 20-pointers,
or gamble on the potential 100-pointers?
>> Andrea:
>> - OK: Anderson, Dossena, Gago, Marcelo, Montolivo, Motta
Motta could very well be your best bet in this pack, especially considering
the dearth of talent in that position.
> Benny has maybe called too many players when he entered the game, but
> he will own the most part of the Italian NT in 2014 or so (e.g.
> Acquafresca and Balotelli)... I maybe see more starters and less
> almost-starters in his roster than in mine (comparison due to the
> similar number of picks).
I'm not so hot on Acquafresca. Scored a bunch of goals at U-21 level, is
scoring a bunch of goals (but not too many) at a lower-midtable club. Can he
really make the step up to the next level? At the same stage of their
career, Gilardino was better by a country mile (Pazzini too).
Balotelli: potentially a 100-pointer, but will he screw his head up the
right direction, or will he become the new Cassano?
>> Daniele:
>> - OK: Cazorla, Guiza
>
> Cazorla: great. Guiza: I don't think that he will do much for
> Daniele's score in the end.
Useful 20-pointers, must keep the score chugging alonng.
>> - KO: Amauri, Borriello, Cavenaghi, Gomis, Thiago Neves
>
> Here are some of the short-term picks that Daniele did joining the
> game... Guiza turned out better than them. Amauri could be a really
> good pick.
But he must get his act and documents together and start getting caps. He
only has one or two cycles ahead of him. A potential 40-pointer.
> As I've said, I don't see a bright future for Borriello.
> We've written enough about Gomis and Thiago Neves. ;)
Thiago Neves will make a comeback!
> The story won't be complete until Daniele's long-term picks (e.g.
> Marchisio, Santacroce) will kick in. But the fact that he's already
> 3rd (2nd this season) means that he's IMHO the man to beat.
Rubbish. Santacroce has already gravitated out of the NT, and I don't have
any real potential 100-pointers on my roster. Marchisio is good, but
surprisingly the central midfield position in Italy is quite crowded these
days. Pirlo and Gattuso have still a few years left in them, then there's De
Rossi, Montolivo, Aquilani, now even Palombo and Brighi.
>> Jesus:
>> - OK: Alexandre Pato
>
> Greatest pick so far,
100-pointer for sure.
D
Benny
> I'm not so hot on Acquafresca. Scored a bunch of goals at U-21 level, is
> scoring a bunch of goals (but not too many) at a lower-midtable club.
Can he
> really make the step up to the next level? At the same stage of their
> career, Gilardino was better by a country mile (Pazzini too).
This is true of Gilardino by about year although he suddenly exploded
after averaging three goals a season. Last season was Acquafresca's
first in Serie A and by the end of it he had already bettered Pazzini's
best ever Serie A tally aged just 20 and is on course to improve on that
this season. He doesn't have Pazzini's terrific movement but given his
size, his pace and strength in the air he'll get plenty of chances as
long as he breaks into the Inter first team next season. On paper that's
a great pairing but it never seems to work out that way. I can't imagine
a time when Italy will be short on options in the final third. The
problems are in defence and in goal, there are too many foreign
goalkeepers in Serie A.
Matthias Mühlich
> Some of my earlier picks were poor in retrospect,
> such as Valbuena and Lell.
I immediately told you that Lell was a bad choice.
> I expect Tasci and Khedira will get caps, and Beck seems like a good
> prospect.
Yes. Yes. Yes. Also also yes für Özil.
milivella
> Some of my earlier picks were poor in retrospect,
> such as Valbuena and Lell. I would be in favour of a rule allowing us to
> drop one player per year !
It would be fairer (for the scouts, including you, who picked more
players!) to allow e.g. to drop 10% (and anyway at least one) of the
players that you had at the beginning of the year. In this way, drops
will have the same effect on each scout's score (as we all knows, the
score is given by an average, so dropping 1 player has different
weights if you own 2 players or 100).
But if everybody drops the 0-pointers, what does change? More, such a
rule would slightly change the "spirit" of the game so far (pick a
player and stick with him), but this is not a problem for me, as long
as everybody agrees to change things.
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> Question is: should you pack your squad with a lot of assured 20-pointers,
> or gamble on the potential 100-pointers?
...and the answer is in the treatise _De imaginatione exploratore. The
ultimate theory of Fantasy Scout_ that *you* will, sooner or later,
post.
Until that day, I've tried to go for 60-pointers. ;) Really, my own
criterion is: "if he could reasonably become a really good player,
even if not a superstar, pick him." But I like the fact that different
people are trying different strategies.
> >> Andrea:
> >> - OK: Anderson, Dossena, Gago, Marcelo, Montolivo, Motta
>
> Motta could very well be your best bet in this pack, especially considering
> the dearth of talent in that position.
But what if in two years a better right back suddenly appears on the
scene? :/
> I'm not so hot on Acquafresca. Scored a bunch of goals at U-21 level, is
> scoring a bunch of goals (but not too many) at a lower-midtable club. Can he
> really make the step up to the next level? At the same stage of their
> career, Gilardino was better by a country mile (Pazzini too).
But see Benny's remarks about these players' stats at the same age...
My opinion is, like too many times in Fantasy Scout, very Yoda-esque:
"Clouded, this boy's future is!"
> Balotelli: potentially a 100-pointer, but will he screw his head up the
> right direction, or will he become the new Cassano?
100 points question.
> >> Daniele:
> >> - OK: Cazorla, Guiza
>
> > Cazorla: great. Guiza: I don't think that he will do much for
> > Daniele's score in the end.
>
> Useful 20-pointers, must keep the score chugging alonng.
Well, I can't disagree. Cazorla fights against Villa for a spot,
doesn't him?
> > Here are some of the short-term picks that Daniele did joining the
> > game... Guiza turned out better than them. Amauri could be a really
> > good pick.
>
> But he must get his act and documents together and start getting caps. He
> only has one or two cycles ahead of him. A potential 40-pointer.
One cycle = two years?
> > We've written enough about Gomis and Thiago Neves. ;)
>
> Thiago Neves will make a comeback!
You make me desire a rule that lets Thiago Neves count twice for your
average! ;)
> > The story won't be complete until Daniele's long-term picks (e.g.
> > Marchisio, Santacroce) will kick in. But the fact that he's already
> > 3rd (2nd this season) means that he's IMHO the man to beat.
>
> Rubbish. Santacroce has already gravitated out of the NT, and I don't have
> any real potential 100-pointers on my roster. Marchisio is good, but
> surprisingly the central midfield position in Italy is quite crowded these
> days. Pirlo and Gattuso have still a few years left in them, then there's De
> Rossi, Montolivo, Aquilani, now even Palombo and Brighi.
(Weauxf apart) to score enough points a player has to be the best
(among his countrymen) in his position! This is what I always tell to
Alberto about Lavezzi... IMHO Marchisio has the skills to be a
starter.
--
Cheers
milivella
MH
Matthias Mühlich wrote:
> MH schrieb:
>
>> Some of my earlier picks were poor in retrospect, such as Valbuena and
>> Lell.
>
>
> I immediately told you that Lell was a bad choice.
Yes, you did, and you were right. I was seduced by the fact that he was
getting to play very regularly in the top team in the country. Even when
Janssen was healthy, and other options, Lell still stayed in the side a
fair bit.
MH
milivella wrote:
> Futbolmetrix:
>
>
>
>>>>Daniele:
>>>>- OK: Cazorla, Guiza
>>>
>>>Cazorla: great. Guiza: I don't think that he will do much for
>>>Daniele's score in the end.
>>
>>Useful 20-pointers, must keep the score chugging alonng.
>
>
> Well, I can't disagree. Cazorla fights against Villa for a spot,
> doesn't him?
Silva more than Villa. Spain has so many good wide players (Mata,
Vicente if he ever gets back to top form, Joaquin, Navas, Capel,Silva,
even Iniesta to an extent (he has been deployed out wide) that I don't
see Cazorla as getting a huge number of caps.
milivella
> milivella wrote:
>
> > Cazorla fights against Villa for a spot,
> > doesn't him?
>
> Silva more than Villa.
Thanks, I meant Silva; I switched their names (they are too linked in
my mind).
> Spain has so many good wide players (Mata,
> Vicente if he ever gets back to top form, Joaquin, Navas, Capel,Silva,
> even Iniesta to an extent (he has been deployed out wide) that I don't
> see Cazorla as getting a huge number of caps.
Again, an interesting fight, that directly affect some scouts (not
only Daniele, because you have picked Mata and Capel, and Tom has
Navas).
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
see that, as it's natural, we are inclined to value picks considering
(among the others) two factors:
1. How many players have that scout picked? The score of a scout is
given by the average score of his player, so it's not the same to have
picked Pato if you have 2 players or 20 players: in the former case,
Pato will affect your score way more than in the latter case.
2. How old are the players? We value young players (the most part, in
this moment) according to their expected future, older players
according to their present. This is e.g. the reason why I've not
included under-23 players that haven't been called up among the KOs.
Now, the official score doesn't take in account players' age (i.e.
factor #2). So I've tried to build a simple formula for an
*unofficial* score that does it, i.e. that doesn't punish you just
because you have a lot of 17 and 18 years old players.
You can find the formula and some words about it in the last FAQ:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/faqs.htm
The (unofficial!) ranking according to that formula is in the last tab
of the Data page:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/data.htm
Anyway, here it is:
1. Alberto 16
2. Andrea 15
3. Alessandro 11
4. Daniele 9
5. William 7
6. Michael 5
7. Benny 4
8. Jesus 4
9. Tom 1
And then Generoso, Enzo, Mark, at 0.
If you compare this ranking with the official one, the main
differences are:
- Alberto: from 4th to 1st. Apart from Lavezzi, he owns very young
players, so even few caps are a good sign here.
- Alessandro: from 1st to 3rd. The inverse of Alberto: his players
have scored some points, but he only has one under-25 players out of
four, so he can't hope that much from these players.
- Michael: from 8th to 6th. The most part of his players were born in
1987 or 1988, so they can't be deprecated to have scored few points so
far.
Now, I ask for your feedback: is this idea crap? how would you address
this issue? is it a non-issue? do you think that the unofficial
ranking reflects the achievements so far better than the official
ranking? I already know that some of you don't like such formulas, but
these are indeed the most valuable opinions, so please tell me.
Thanks.
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> Now, the official score doesn't take in account players' age (i.e.
> factor #2). So I've tried to build a simple formula for an
> *unofficial* score that does it, i.e. that doesn't punish you just
> because you have a lot of 17 and 18 years old players.
>
> You can find the formula and some words about it in the last FAQ:
> http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/faqs.htm
Now I'm still waiting for your feedback, but I want to add a doubt:
isn't it better to use a different formula?
The formula that I've proposed is:
scout_score = sum_of_players_caps_and_goals / sum_of_players_weights
But you could go for a different formula:
player_score = player_caps_and_goals / player_weight
scout_score = average_of_players_scores
Why the second formula could be better: imagine that you have just 2
players who have scored 10 points in total. The first is 18 years old
and the second is 40 years old. Now, it's not the same if the 10
points were scored by the first player or by the second:
a) 18 y.o. 0 points, 40 y.o. 10 points = you have a young prospect
about nothing can be said (just looking at his NT career), and a
retired player that has been quite poor
b) 10 y.o. 10 points, 40 y.o. 0 points = you have a retired player
that has done nothing for you, but you also may have the second coming
of Pele!
Now, with the first formula your score is the same in both cases:
a) 10 / 1.01 = 9.9
b) 10 / 1.01 = 9.9
But with the second formula you have different scores in the two
scenarios:
a) (0/0.01 + 10/1) / 2 = 5
b) (10/0.01 + 0/1) / 2 = 500
It could be opposed that with the second formula all the 0-pointers
are equal, whatever their age. In our example, if the first player is
no more 18 but 40 y.o., you always have:
a) (0/1 + 10/1) / 2 = 5
While the first formula reacts to the different age of the 0-pointers:
a) 10 / 2 = 5
The score in fact is now 5, no more 9.9.
So what? We should go with the second formula, trying to avoid the 0-
pointers problem through a patch (e.g. add 1 point to all the
players_caps_and_goals)? Or should we put both the formula in the
trash?
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> But you could go for a different formula:
> player_score = player_caps_and_goals / player_weight
The nice thing is that the predicted player_score computed in this way
agrees with subjective judgments. Let's see what Daniele has wrote
about already capped players:
- Quagliarella: "a likely 20-point getter". Predicted score: 26.
- Cazorla and Guiza: "useful 20-pointers". Predicted scores: Guiza 21,
Cazorla 41 (will go down after Silva's return).
- Alexandre Pato: "100-pointer for sure". Predicted score: 200
(admittedly too high, but it's more than 100 ;) and will adjust with
time).
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> The formula that I've proposed is:
> scout_score = sum_of_players_caps_and_goals / sum_of_players_weights
>
> But you could go for a different formula:
> player_score = player_caps_and_goals / player_weight
> scout_score = average_of_players_scores
I fear that this problem is in the realm of "Statistics not for the
real Dummies", so it's not something I can ever know. (I can just
guess that it's a problem of "interval estimation", but maybe I'm
wrong.) So, I ask for the help of the ones who know! (Otherwise, I'll
just have to put all these ideas away.)
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> Now, the official score doesn't take in account players' age (i.e.
> factor #2). So I've tried to build a simple formula for an
> *unofficial* score that does it, i.e. that doesn't punish you just
> because you have a lot of 17 and 18 years old players.
>
> You can find the formula and some words about it in the last FAQ:
> http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/faqs.htm
I've put it off the site, because - at least for the moment - I think
that the only meaningful thing that we can do, apart from computing
the official score, is to check who owns players that are in good
form. Waiting a better method by Daniele, I go with a very rough one,
made by two simple steps.
First, we check who are the best player in the top European leagues.
Here are the top players in Oleole fantasy football* (that rewards
winning matches, not having goals against and scoring goals):
GK
EPL (3): Reina, Van Der Sar, Cech
Liga (2): Valdes, Casillas
Serie A (2): Cesar, Rubinho
Bundesliga (1): Drobny
Ligue 1 (1): Douchez
DF
EPL (10): Vidic, Carragher, Lescott, Aurelio, Taylor, O'Shea, Eboue,
Terry, Cole, Sagna
Liga (8): Alves, Puyol, Squillaci, Cannavaro, Pepe, Capdevila, Ramos,
Felipe
Serie A (6): Maicon, Chiellini, Mellberg, Molinaro, Cordoba, Criscito*
Bundesliga (4): Westermann, Stein, Schafer, Barzagli
Ligue 1 (2): Taiwo, Bocanegra
MF
EPL (10): Lampard, Gerrard, Ronaldo, Denilson*, Barry, Arteta, Young*,
Milner*, Nasri, Bosingwa
Liga (8): Xavi, Cazorla*, Lafita, Barkero, Apono, Robben, Renato,
Fernandez
Serie A (6): Kaka, Simplicio, Zanetti, Cambiasso, Nedved, Stankovic
Bundesliga (4): Ze Roberto, Trochowski, Khedira*, Gentner
Ligue 1 (2): Bastos, Obraniak
FW
EPL (5): Anelka, Kuyt, Berbatov, Agbonlahor*, Crouch
Liga (4): Eto'o, Messi, Raul, Henry
Serie A (3): Ibrahimovic, Pato*, Amauri*
Bundesliga (2): Ibisevic, Helmes
Ligue 1 (1): Gignac*
Then, we check which scout is doing better. We do it dividing, for
each scout, the number of picked players in the previous list by the
number of picked player in the range 23-31 years old**:
15% Daniele (Amauri, Cazorla; 13 players)
14% William (Young; 7 players)
11% Jesus (Pato; 9 players)
9% Tom (Milner; 11 players)
9% Andrea (Criscito, Denilson!; 22 players)
6% Michael (Khedira; 17 players)
4% Benny (Gignac; 23 players)
End. Feedback is very welcome.
* http://www.oleole.com/fantasyfootball
** I've added a tab with such a number in the data page:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/data.htm
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> Then, we check which scout is doing better. We do it dividing, for
> each scout, the number of picked players in the previous list by the
> number of picked player in the range 23-31 years old**:
Sorry, I divided by all the players, not just the ones in that age
range. Here is the correct ranking:
33% William (Young; 3 players)
25% Jesus (Pato; 4 players)
20% Daniele (Amauri, Cazorla; 10 players)
20% Michael (Khedira; 5 players)
20% Andrea (Criscito, Denilson!; 10 players)
14% Tom (Milner; 7 players)
7% Benny (Gignac; 14 players)
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
http://www.goal.com/en/news/1717/editorial/2009/03/27/1176847/goalcom-worldview-world-cup-wonders-which-untested-players-are-ab
"Goal.com's global team of editors and experts put their heads
together to find out who is about to make the leap from unknown to
unbelievable..."
Here are the picks for FS nations:
- England: Aaron Lennon: he has never been eligible
- Italy: Giampaolo Pazzini: not picked so far
- Spain: Santiago Cazorla: picked by Daniele
- France: Steve Mandanda: picked by Benny
- Netherlands: Dirk Marcellis: picked by Benny
- Germany: Robert Enke: no more eligible
- Argentina: Emiliano Papa: not picked so far
- Brazil: snubbed?
--
Cheers
milivella