Fantasy Scout - Chat thread, August 2022

milivella

unread,

Aug 23, 2022, 10:43:41 PM8/23/22

to

[The rules of this thread are simple: write what you want, reply if you
want, ignore if you have to.]

---

I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
evolution of the rankings:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm
Enjoy.

--
Cheers
milivella

Jesper Lauridsen

unread,

Aug 24, 2022, 1:02:27 PM8/24/22

to

On 2022-08-24, milivella <mili...@gmail.com> wrote:
> [The rules of this thread are simple: write what you want, reply if you
> want, ignore if you have to.]

Has anyone picked German U21 Bisseck yet?

https://clip.dubz.co/v/35mp23

milivella

unread,

Aug 25, 2022, 6:31:35 PM8/25/22

to

Jesper Lauridsen:

> Has anyone picked German U21 Bisseck yet?
>
> https://clip.dubz.co/v/35mp23

No. It could be a good time to join the game... (whistles casually)

--
Cheers
militell

milivella

unread,

Aug 25, 2022, 10:02:19 PM8/25/22

to

> I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
> evolution of the rankings:
> http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm

So, what has happened?

Cycle 1: Thomas Mueller got more points than any other player, going
from 0.41 to 1.14 PPM (points per match). This means that Daniele:
scored more points than any other scout but almost-surely-winner Sid
Debgupta, got his place on the podium back, and has now 50% chances to
keep said place (by remaining above Jesus or leapfrogging Michael H.).

Cycle 2: the most remarkable thing is Depay's 2.00 PPM, 0.69 more than
any other player in any cycle. Depay single-handedly moved Tom Two to
5th place---almost 4th, if not for Pietro's acceleration. However, the
podium is still far away for Tom, even though not out of reach.

Cycle 3: here, too, the race for 3rd place is the cover story. Binder,
Nigel and Michael H. are closer than they were one year ago. The
algorithm has Binder out of the race, because he only has aging Morata
left; seemingly a reasonable reasoning. Then it's Nigel's
Stones+Coman+Gabriel+Ake+Martial(+Promes?) vs. Michael's
Goretzka+Laporte+Shaw+Digne. It will be interesting to see this unrolls.

Cycle 4: want to hear a new one? Then I have bad news for you. The real
race is for podium here, too. But I promise it's the last time---we're
about to move to the lively cycles. Anyway... Abubakr is in third place
and he has scored more points than anyone else below him, thanks to a
certain Mbappe. On this basis, it's fair to think that Abubakr will keep
his place on the podium. On the other hand, Alberto will get 1 point
every time Germany will play for the next 8 years (Kimmich) and has two
players who have been about to break out for the past 8 years (Asensio
and Dembele), so the algorithm doesn't count him out.

To be continued...

--
Cheers
milivella

milivella

unread,

Aug 26, 2022, 9:44:48 PM8/26/22

to

milivella:

>> I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
>> evolution of the rankings:
>> http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm
>
> So, what has happened?

(or: what happened?)

> Cycle 1: Thomas Mueller got more points than any other player, going

[snip]

Cycle 5: when you have the top three scouts having three of the best six
performances across all cycles, you know you're in for a great top spot
race. Alberto's 65 point (4.92 PPM) season meant he managed to overtake
Michael H. despite the latter's very good score of 58 (4.39). However,
it's Jackson's incredible score of 85 (6.44), the best across all cycles
(yes, even better than Andrea V.'s 3rd cycle, believe it or not), that
marks the season. Jackson' record performance is due to a mix of already
established staples (Lautaro Martinez, Maguire), players stepping up
(Vinicius Junior) and newcomers to international football (Soler, Theo
Hernandez, Carlos Cuesta). Jackson is now just 13 points below the top
and at this rate, he will likely be the leader soon. The prediction has
Jackson up from 57% to 77% chances to win the cycle, 15 of these 20
points taken from his closest opponents. This could easily be the season
we'll perceive as the one when Jackson won the cycle... assuming he will.

Jackson

unread,

Aug 30, 2022, 3:20:44 AM8/30/22

to

I always enjoy reading your yearly cycle roundups. Obviously, it gets boring from Cycle 5 on when the news is just that Jackson is becoming more and more powerful, but that's how it goes...

milivella

unread,

Sep 2, 2022, 1:16:03 AM9/2/22

to

milivella:

> milivella:
>
>>> I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
>>> evolution of the rankings:
>>> http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm
>>
>> So, what has happened?
>
> (or: what happened?)
>
>> Cycle 1: Thomas Mueller got more points than any other player, going
>
> [snip]
>
> Cycle 5: when you have the top three scouts having three of the best six

[snip]

Cycle 6: Jackson (60 points) outscored anyone, and particularly his most
dangerous opponent Leon (56), despite his players being in average just
21.6 year old, while Leon's players are 24.9. No wonder that Jackson
further improved his chances to win the cycle (51% to 58%), at the
expense of (among others) Leon (25% to 21%). Jackson's best players have
been Paqueta, Grealish, Bellingham (who is just 19), Bruno Guimaraes.
Leon's best player has been Diogo Jota, who is already 25.

---

Alternative way to describe the situation of this cycle: Leon scored
almost as many points (56) as Jackson (60) and more than Ville (62). He
also improved his points per match ratio (+0.42), while the other two
had their ratio worsen (Jackson -0.04, Ville -0.18). Yet, the algorithm
says that Ville has less chances to win the cycle (25% to 21%), while
Jackson and Ville have more (Jackson 51 to 58, Ville 10 to 12). The
reason is simple: Ville has significant older players, the average age
of his players being 24.9, while both Jackson's and Ville's squads are
21.6 (Ville's older player is younger than the average Leon's player!).
This means that J&V's players are not expected to score many points yet,
while L's are. If L doesn't outscore J&V now, he has little chance to
finish before both of them. Hence that prediction. But let's give some
names to these numbers: Jackson has Bellingham and Pedri, two rare
established teens. Ville's best players are all 22 or 23: Ferran Torres,
Mount, Reece James, Tonali. Leon's best players are already 24 or 25:
Diogo Jota, Eder Militao.

--
Cheers
milivella

Werner Pichler

unread,

Sep 10, 2022, 3:00:20 AM9/10/22

to

He last played for the NT in 2013 (and was in the squad in the 2015), so not
exactly relevant to any race, but Davide Santon is forced to retire at 31, his knees are ruined.

https://romapress.net/ex-roma-player-davide-santon-announces-retirement/

Ciao,
Werner

milivella

unread,

Sep 10, 2022, 4:04:30 AM9/10/22

to

milivella:

> milivella:
>
>> milivella:
>>
>>>> I have updated the archive of the data and the graphs depicting the
>>>> evolution of the rankings:
>>>> http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/guestpages.htm
>>>
>>> So, what has happened?
>>
>> (or: what happened?)
>>
>>> Cycle 1: Thomas Mueller got more points than any other player, going
>>
>> [snip]
>>
>> Cycle 5: when you have the top three scouts having three of the best six
>
> [snip]
>
> Cycle 6: Jackson (60 points) outscored anyone, and particularly his most

[snip]

Cycle 7: scoring more than 3 points per match (PPM) before the end of
the picking cycle is rare. In each of the previous two cycles, only one
scout had managed such a feat. This season, in cycle 7, *four* scouts
scored more than 3 PPM. They were Jackson (Tchouameni, Kalvin Phillips),
Leon (Unai Simon, Cristian Romero), Alberto (Raspadori, Darwin Nunez)
and Ville (Gavi, Molina). With such an exciting start, this cycle
promises a lot of fun.

--
Cheers
milivella

milivella

unread,

Sep 18, 2022, 7:22:53 PM9/18/22

to

Jackson:

> Obviously, it gets boring from Cycle 5 on when the news is just that Jackson is becoming more and more powerful

No spoilers, please! :)

--
Cheers
milivella

milivella

unread,

Sep 18, 2022, 7:24:27 PM9/18/22

to

Werner Pichler:

> He last played for the NT in 2013 (and was in the squad in the 2015), so not
> exactly relevant to any race, but Davide Santon is forced to retire at 31, his knees are ruined.
>
> https://romapress.net/ex-roma-player-davide-santon-announces-retirement/

I remember when we thought he was a guaranteed 100-pointer...

--
Cheers
milivella

MH

unread,

Sep 19, 2022, 3:40:07 PM9/19/22

to

Benzema injury has resulted in a recall for old man Giroud. Who is
still starting and scoring for Milan, btw.
My best pick by a long shot, given that he was not all that obvious.
Could have been another Guivar'ch

> --
> Cheers
> milivella
>

milivella

unread,

Sep 22, 2022, 12:58:07 PM9/22/22

to

milivella

unread,

Sep 22, 2022, 6:21:43 PM9/22/22

to

MH:

> Benzema injury has resulted in a recall for old man Giroud. Who is
> still starting and scoring for Milan, btw.

And he played. And he scored!

The legend lives on.

--
Cheers
milivella

milivella

unread,

Sep 22, 2022, 9:23:46 PM9/22/22

to

I have updated the clubs the players play for.

--
Cheers
milivella

MH

unread,

Sep 22, 2022, 11:57:13 PM9/22/22

to

49 goals for France. Surely they will give him a couple more caps to
get to 50 ?

milivella

unread,

Sep 23, 2022, 6:34:03 PM9/23/22

to

September 23 in milivellaland was about football being simple.

You see, scoring is simple. Just look at Richarlison's two goals against
Ghana:
https://old.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/xm64i9/brazil_2_0_ghana_richarlison_28/
https://old.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/xm6g1j/brazil_3_0_ghana_richarlison_40/

On the other hand, it looks like football is not _so_ simple that Tim
"Mr. Penalties" Krul can skip penalty practice...
"Norwich's Tim Krul has been told he will never play for the Netherlands
again after he refused to go to training to practise penalties"
https://twitter.com/_The72/status/1573094894486392834

--
Cheers
milivella

Werner Pichler

unread,

Sep 27, 2022, 5:21:48 PM9/27/22

to

Fabian Delph retired. Last England match in 2019.
Injuries...

Ciao,
Werner