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-hh
Aug 16, 2019, 8:38:43 PM8/16/19
to
Trucking industry - a leading indicator:
<https://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-truckers-bloodbath-signals-recession-inverted-yield-2019-8>
Someone want to check on cardboard?
-hh
<https://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-truckers-bloodbath-signals-recession-inverted-yield-2019-8>
Someone want to check on cardboard?
-hh
Bigbird
Aug 17, 2019, 1:43:33 AM8/17/19
to
-hh wrote:
> Trucking industry - a leading indicator:
>
>
<https://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-truckers-bloodbath-signals-recession-inverted-yield-2019-8>
>
The Check In: Trump and Trucking
> Trucking industry - a leading indicator:
>
>
<https://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-truckers-bloodbath-signals-recession-inverted-yield-2019-8>
>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iv-bbacVAA0
It's really not funny; lies and broken promises.
You might note where they say their taxes went up after the "Trump's
tax cut".
--
Trump fact check:
5,000 false claims in the first 117 weeks.
Pretending that doesn't bother you is a mental disorder.
-hh
Aug 19, 2019, 4:34:26 PM8/19/19
to
On Saturday, August 17, 2019 at 1:43:33 AM UTC-4, Bigbird wrote:
> -hh wrote:
>
> > Trucking industry - a leading indicator:
> >
> >
> <https://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-truckers-bloodbath-signals-recession-inverted-yield-2019-8>
> >
>
> The Check In: Trump and Trucking
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iv-bbacVAA0
>
> It's really not funny; lies and broken promises.
>
> You might note where they say their taxes went up after the "Trump's
> tax cut".
And at the NH rally, he basically said that he was going to
> -hh wrote:
>
> > Trucking industry - a leading indicator:
> >
> >
> <https://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-truckers-bloodbath-signals-recession-inverted-yield-2019-8>
> >
>
> The Check In: Trump and Trucking
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iv-bbacVAA0
>
> It's really not funny; lies and broken promises.
>
> You might note where they say their taxes went up after the "Trump's
> tax cut".
hold peoples' 401k retirement funds hostage:
<https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-poll-twitter-racism-approval-rating-latest-new-york-times-a9064301.html>
-hh
-hh
Aug 19, 2019, 8:17:26 PM8/19/19
to
Meantime, in Elkhart, Indiana ... RV sales are crashing:
“Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far
this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry
Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.
“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks,
an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind. Mr. Hicks says softening consumer
demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is
either in a recession or soon headed for one.”
<https://apple.news/AEQPxhThUTmewzuP7Ff7cbg>
-hh
“Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far
this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry
Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.
“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks,
an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind. Mr. Hicks says softening consumer
demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is
either in a recession or soon headed for one.”
<https://apple.news/AEQPxhThUTmewzuP7Ff7cbg>
-hh
TomS
Aug 21, 2019, 11:52:07 PM8/21/19
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Alan Baker
Aug 22, 2019, 12:35:48 AM8/22/19
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Bigbird
Aug 22, 2019, 2:26:50 AM8/22/19
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sane and credible president or any policies on anything?
These aren't predictions this is what has been happening for months;
it's just as real as the lies and promises Trump made that it wouldn't.
--
President Trump made 12,019 false or misleading claims over 928 days
-hh
Aug 22, 2019, 12:03:12 PM8/22/19
to
Market is likely to take.
And for this metric, a useful reference is International Paper
NYSE: IP
<https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ip>
Hmm....currently trading quite close to its 52 Week low.
Next step will be to see if we can figure out if this is
due to a slump in the likes of Amazon cardboard box orders,
or the SEC's "deregulation" that's proposing to abolish
their requirement for delivering hardcopy printed Prospectus
copies to their investors...
This SEC one will probably hit the printing houses pretty badly;
I'd expect some to fold within the next ~3 years, particularly
since many of which are smaller independent businesses and not
a diversified international conglomerate. It also means that
there will be a pullback on manufacturing orders in this segment
too, since with the demand drop, there will be an overcapacity
and no need to expand.
-hh
-hh
Aug 22, 2019, 1:29:50 PM8/22/19
to
On Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 12:03:12 PM UTC-4, -hh wrote:
> ...
> ...just looking for insight on the direction that the
<https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8d045df65df54d4694039324224684e0>
Headline:
"Business activity growth weakens in August amid slowest rise
in new orders for a decade"
Key findings:
* Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 50.9 (52.6 in July).
3-month low.
* Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 50.9 (53.0 in July).
3-month low.
* Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 (50.4 in July).
119-month low.
* Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index at 50.6 (50.5 in July).
2-month high.
Notes include:
"...confidence in relation to the year-ahead business outlook
dropped for the seventh month running to its lowest since this
index began in July 2012."
"...fastest reduction in export sales since August 2009..."
"...manufacturing companies continued to trim their inventory
levels...mainly linked to concerns about the demand outlook.
Pre-production inventories fell for the fourth month running,
while stocks of finished goods decreased to the greatest extent
since June 2014."
Closing:
"“August’s survey data provides a clear signal that economic growth
has continued to soften...and collectively point to annualized GDP
growth of around 1.5%.
“The most concerning aspect of the latest data is a slowdown in new
business growth to its weakest in a decade, driven by a sharp loss
of momentum across the service sector. Survey respondents commented
on a headwind from subdued corporate spending as softer growth
expectations at home and internationally encouraged tighter budget
setting.
“Manufacturing companies continued to feel the impact of slowing
global economic conditions, with new export sales falling at the
fastest pace since August 2009.
“Business expectations for the year ahead became more gloomy in
August and remain the lowest since comparable data were first
available in 2012. The continued slide in corporate growth
projections suggests that firms may exert greater caution in
relation to spending, investment and staff hiring during the
coming months.”"
-hh
> ...
> ...just looking for insight on the direction that the
> Market is likely to take.
Released this morning, the IHS Markit Flash US PMI:
<https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8d045df65df54d4694039324224684e0>
Headline:
"Business activity growth weakens in August amid slowest rise
in new orders for a decade"
Key findings:
* Flash U.S. Composite Output Index at 50.9 (52.6 in July).
3-month low.
* Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 50.9 (53.0 in July).
3-month low.
* Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 (50.4 in July).
119-month low.
* Flash U.S. Manufacturing Output Index at 50.6 (50.5 in July).
2-month high.
Notes include:
"...confidence in relation to the year-ahead business outlook
dropped for the seventh month running to its lowest since this
index began in July 2012."
"...fastest reduction in export sales since August 2009..."
"...manufacturing companies continued to trim their inventory
levels...mainly linked to concerns about the demand outlook.
Pre-production inventories fell for the fourth month running,
while stocks of finished goods decreased to the greatest extent
since June 2014."
Closing:
"“August’s survey data provides a clear signal that economic growth
has continued to soften...and collectively point to annualized GDP
growth of around 1.5%.
“The most concerning aspect of the latest data is a slowdown in new
business growth to its weakest in a decade, driven by a sharp loss
of momentum across the service sector. Survey respondents commented
on a headwind from subdued corporate spending as softer growth
expectations at home and internationally encouraged tighter budget
setting.
“Manufacturing companies continued to feel the impact of slowing
global economic conditions, with new export sales falling at the
fastest pace since August 2009.
“Business expectations for the year ahead became more gloomy in
August and remain the lowest since comparable data were first
available in 2012. The continued slide in corporate growth
projections suggests that firms may exert greater caution in
relation to spending, investment and staff hiring during the
coming months.”"
-hh
TomS
Aug 22, 2019, 7:31:09 PM8/22/19
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TomS
Aug 22, 2019, 7:36:42 PM8/22/19
to
TomS
Aug 22, 2019, 7:55:11 PM8/22/19
to
-hh
Aug 22, 2019, 10:28:26 PM8/22/19
to
TomS wrote:
> If you are looking for market direction, IP IS NOT the one to pick.
Merely insight on a particular segment, which can have broader implications.
> If you are looking for market direction, IP IS NOT the one to pick.
> Go to WSJ, Yahoo Finance, etc. and you will find A LOT of stocks making new 52 week lows.
> If you want direction (and I don't think you do) look at the S&P 500 - that's where the money is.
-hh
TomS
Aug 23, 2019, 12:55:23 AM8/23/19
to
On Thursday, August 22, 2019 at 7:28:26 PM UTC-7, -hh wrote:
> TomS wrote:
> > If you are looking for market direction, IP IS NOT the one to pick.
>
> Merely insight on a particular segment, which can have broader implications.
>
>
> > Go to WSJ, Yahoo Finance, etc. and you will find A LOT of stocks making new 52 week lows.
>
> But how can they be so low if the Economy’s doing so well?
There MUST be crossed wires here - are you REALLY asking that question, REALLY?????
> TomS wrote:
> > If you are looking for market direction, IP IS NOT the one to pick.
>
> Merely insight on a particular segment, which can have broader implications.
>
>
> > Go to WSJ, Yahoo Finance, etc. and you will find A LOT of stocks making new 52 week lows.
>
> But how can they be so low if the Economy’s doing so well?
ANYBODY that follows the market, and I mean ANYBODY, KNOWS that there are ALWAYS companies and sectors that are lagging for various reasons!!!! What a DUFUS!!!!!!!!
>
>
> > If you want direction (and I don't think you do) look at the S&P 500 - that's where the money is.
>
> Oh, I made some hedging moves a year ago.
Alan Baker
Aug 23, 2019, 1:59:40 AM8/23/19
to
I'm not "rooting" for a storm if I see one coming and talk about it.
-hh
Aug 23, 2019, 7:53:32 AM8/23/19
to
TomS wrote:
>> > If you want direction (and I don't think you do) look at the S&P 500 - that's where the money is.
>>
>> Oh, I made some hedging moves a year ago.
>
> Such as WHAT?
1. Moved ~$100K into an international fund in one of the 401k’s. Forget the fund
name offhand. I think I did mention the action on RSG but with less detail than this.
2. Took ~$10K in accumulated dividends that had built up and added to IAU last
October (IIRC, buy price was 11.7); it has a very low Beta.
-hh
> -hh wrote:
>> But how can they be so low if the Economy’s doing so well?
>
> There MUST be crossed wires here - are you REALLY asking that question, REALLY?????
> ANYBODY that follows the market, and I mean ANYBODY, KNOWS that there are ALWAYS
> companies and sectors that are lagging for various reasons!!!! What a DUFUS!!!!!!!!
Aren’t you forgetting the whole “trickle down” mantras that means inequities can’t exist? /s
>> But how can they be so low if the Economy’s doing so well?
>
> There MUST be crossed wires here - are you REALLY asking that question, REALLY?????
> ANYBODY that follows the market, and I mean ANYBODY, KNOWS that there are ALWAYS
> companies and sectors that are lagging for various reasons!!!! What a DUFUS!!!!!!!!
>> > If you want direction (and I don't think you do) look at the S&P 500 - that's where the money is.
>>
>> Oh, I made some hedging moves a year ago.
>
> Such as WHAT?
name offhand. I think I did mention the action on RSG but with less detail than this.
2. Took ~$10K in accumulated dividends that had built up and added to IAU last
October (IIRC, buy price was 11.7); it has a very low Beta.
-hh
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