On Wed, 09 Nov 2016 11:59:48 -0600, Moderate wrote:
> Moderate <
nos...@nomail.com> Wrote in message:
>>
recscub...@huntzinger.com Wrote in message:
>>
>>> Yup. I read this AM an article on the WSJ that referred to some older
>>> research that found that the immediate market reactions (such as this)
>>> are a surprisingly accurate predictor for the economy. I'll have to
>>> try to find the URL link. But in any event, the KISS analysis on
>>> these futures is that 2019 & 2020 will outperform 2017 & 2018.
>>> Reading between the lines, it is that 2017/18 is going to totally suck
>>> and 19/20 will be the recovery. However, given how much that
>>> historical trends have changed since 2007/08 particularly with slower
>>> recoveries, my conservative view on this is that 2017/18/19 are at
>>> high risk of totally sucking and that the recovery slope will again be
>>> very low, so while it may start in 19, it will probably take
>>> 20/21/22...maybe also 2023?... to get back. Given that this means a
>>> half decade of flat growth in a portfolio, it means adding more
>>> working years as mentioned. So much for retiring before we hit 60.
>>
>> The markets respond to unknowns. With Hillary they knew what they were
>> getting. Trump didn't make a lot of speeches to Wall Street bankers so
>> they don't know exactly what he will do.
>>
>> The Peso value dropped like a stone.
>
> Dow back up 1%.
I would wager right now that the Dow is lower in 2020, but I know you're
not honorable enough to bet.