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Should I trade Edgerrin James?

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theDizz

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Oct 8, 2001, 6:28:04 PM10/8/01
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I'm playing in a league with friends and yahoo scoring (1pt for 25yds
passing, 15yds recieving, 10yds rushing, 6pt TD). Somebody offered me Issac
Bruce (WR) and Ladainian Tomlinson (RB) for Edgerrin James (RB). I am
tempted because my Wide recieving unit needs some help. Here is my team:

QB: Rich Gannon
WR: Mushin Muhammaned (I had MacCaffrey, but...)
WR: Marty Booker
WR: Travis Taylor
RB: Edgerrin James
RB: Curtis Martin
TE: Chad Lewis
K: Martin Gramatica
DEF: New Orleans
BENCH: Wayne Chrebet, Chris Winke, Peerless Price, Darnay Scott, Maurice
Smith

Is this a trade that I should make? Much thanks for any opinions.


Michael Bushong

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Oct 8, 2001, 6:40:45 PM10/8/01
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If you are going to trade one of the premier players in fantasy football,
you should get a good running back in return (Ahman Green or Ricky Williams
come to mind) AND a top receiver AND an upgrade at your other receiver
spot.

I might be inclined to trade Edgerrin James and Travis Taylor for Ricky
Williams, Isaac Bruce, and Jimmy Smith.

My basic point is that with all the running back injuries, you are sitting
on two gold mines. Make sure you get gold if you are going to give up
your stake.

-Mike


theDizz <the...@earthlink.net> wrote:
: I'm playing in a league with friends and yahoo scoring (1pt for 25yds

Russell Carswell

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Oct 8, 2001, 7:50:16 PM10/8/01
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Michael Bushong wrote:
>
> If you are going to trade one of the premier players in fantasy football,
> you should get a good running back in return (Ahman Green or Ricky Williams
> come to mind) AND a top receiver AND an upgrade at your other receiver
> spot.
>
> I might be inclined to trade Edgerrin James and Travis Taylor for Ricky
> Williams, Isaac Bruce, and Jimmy Smith.

I'd rather have LaDainian Tomlinson than Ricky Williams, by a wide
margin.

Not that I'd trade Edge straight across for Tomlinson, but through the
first 3 games (now 4) Tomlinson has outplayed Edge.

3in4

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Oct 8, 2001, 8:52:31 PM10/8/01
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I think he is getting gold. Edge is an awesome back, but Tomlinson is the horse and scoring alot of
TD's to go with 100 yd games. Getting bruce as well to help that pathetic WR corps is a pretty good
deal. Being that he was OFFERED the trade, I think he should also try to ask for another decent WR.
If the other owner declines, just take the original trade.

Robert

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Oct 8, 2001, 10:29:58 PM10/8/01
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I would Keep Edge. The WR you have are not all that bad, and considering
Indy's schedule late the year thru Weeks 14-17 ( The playoffs) against weak
run Defenses.

Your WR are little weak but decent. Especially Taylor, I think Grbac is
only going to get better and Taylor should directly benefit. I would
consider a lesser trade depending on his roster. Also keep in mind that
Bruce, while he has been healthy for two years, is injury risk. That in
itself is not that big of a deal, except your giving up a second best RB in
FF and perhaps, the safest non QB start bar anyone in terms of consistency.

What else does he have on his roster?


"theDizz" <the...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
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Greg Kellogg

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Oct 9, 2001, 11:09:25 PM10/9/01
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Do it. Tomlinson is leading the league in TDs right now and you get
two stars for one.

--
Greg Kellogg edi...@komments.com
Owner/Editor http://www.komments.com

Greg Kellogg

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Oct 9, 2001, 11:12:28 PM10/9/01
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Mike,
Exactly why would you want Williams over Tomlinson?

FanEx 2001 Player Stats
Conference: E-Mail Conference
From 2001 Week #1 through 2001 Week #4
======================================


Sort by:Fantasy Points
Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush Num Rec Rec FFL
Pos Unassigned NFL Att Cmp Yrds TDs Att Yds TDs Rec Yds TD Pts
=====================================================================================
1 RB Marshall Faulk STL 0 0 0 0 71 336 3 31 279 2 70
2 RB Ladainian Tomlinson SD 0 0 0 0 103 412 6 6 66 0 66
3 RB Curtis Martin NYJ 0 0 0 0 90 386 6 12 78 0 65
4 RB Ahman Green GB 0 0 0 0 76 385 2 22 190 0 48
5 RB Lamar Smith MIA 0 0 0 0 95 339 2 10 129 1 48
6 RB Priest Holmes KC 0 0 0 0 55 240 2 16 154 1 43
7 RB Edgerrin James IND 0 0 0 0 68 301 3 12 99 0 43
8 RB Ricky Williams NO 0 0 0 0 64 282 1 10 110 1 36

--

Michael Bushong

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Oct 10, 2001, 3:01:17 AM10/10/01
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Two primary reasons. First, college players historically wind down a bit
towards the end of their rookie season because of the longer schedule.
While Tomlinson did not play in the preseason, I believe he will show
the effects of carrying the ball 25-35 times a game in weeks 13+. That is
a dangerous time to see production drop off a bit. Also, in the end of
the year is when he faces teams a second time. They will gameplan for him
better at that point, and I would rather put my fantasy hopes in a slightly
more proven (if not more injured) back.

The better reason though is that the Chargers have a bye in week 17. I am
not sure I want my second RB on the bench come finals time.

-Mike

Greg Kellogg <gr...@komments.com> wrote:
: Mike,

Mike Murray

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Oct 10, 2001, 7:48:16 PM10/10/01
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And where can you prove this? This sounds like B.S. to me.

--
Mike Murray
Webmaster, Komments.com
http://www.komments.com
mmu...@komments.com

"There is a very fine line between "hobby" and "mental illness"
-- Dave Barry

"Michael Bushong" <bus...@OCF.Berkeley.EDU> wrote in message
news:9q0rnt$12n6$3...@agate.berkeley.edu...

> .... First, college players historically wind down a bit

Andrew Lannen

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Oct 10, 2001, 11:48:39 PM10/10/01
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On Wed, 10 Oct 2001 16:48:16 -0700, "Mike Murray"
<mmu...@komments.com> wrote:

>And where can you prove this? This sounds like B.S. to me.

Most players in their first seasons admit to hitting the "rookie
wall." They are used to playing 11-12 game seasons in college. It's
tough for their bodies to adjust to the extra games plus the faster
pace.

-----
Andrew C. Lannen
and...@ix.netcom.com

beezmach

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Oct 11, 2001, 11:34:56 AM10/11/01
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Thu, 11 Oct 2001 03:48:39 GMT <7d5ast0gbdbg75tcp...@4ax.com>
Andrew Lannen
>
>On Wed, 10 Oct 2001 16:48:16 -0700, "Mike Murray"
><mmu...@komments.com> wrote:
>
>>And where can you prove this? This sounds like B.S. to me.
>
> Most players in their first seasons admit to hitting the "rookie
>wall." They are used to playing 11-12 game seasons in college. It's
>tough for their bodies to adjust to the extra games plus the faster
>pace.
>

I think Murrey means: "Show me numbers." You probably just heard him wrong
since he has to turn his whole body to speak to you directly...

Anybody have per-game stats? Drinen? I'd like to see something on this.


Bubba

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Oct 11, 2001, 12:25:54 PM10/11/01
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Try here:

www.gaystatboy.com/rookiewall.htm


"beezmach" <beez...@yahoo.commie> wrote in message
news:A_ix7.24587$ev2....@www.newsranger.com...

beezmach

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Oct 11, 2001, 3:17:47 PM10/11/01
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shucks, the server seems to be down right now

Thu, 11 Oct 2001 12:25:54 -0400
<RJjx7.42472$WX5.1...@e3500-atl2.usenetserver.com> Bubba

Mike Murray

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Oct 11, 2001, 4:26:02 PM10/11/01
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Exactly. Show me the numbers!

--
Mike Murray
Webmaster, Komments.com
http://www.komments.com
mmu...@komments.com

"There is a very fine line between "hobby" and "mental illness"
-- Dave Barry

"beezmach" <beez...@yahoo.commie> wrote in message
news:A_ix7.24587$ev2....@www.newsranger.com...


> Thu, 11 Oct 2001 03:48:39 GMT <7d5ast0gbdbg75tcp...@4ax.com>
>

Doug Drinen

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Oct 12, 2001, 3:26:44 PM10/12/01
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beezmach<beez...@yahoo.commie> wrote in message
> > Most players in their first seasons admit to hitting the "rookie
> >wall." They are used to playing 11-12 game seasons in college. It's
> >tough for their bodies to adjust to the extra games plus the faster
> >pace.

> Anybody have per-game stats? Drinen? I'd like to see something on this.


Let's assume the "wall" should be encountered around week 12 (roughly
the end of a college season).

Since 1995, I found 19 RBs that met the following criteria:

1. rookie
2. had at least 125 carries in the first 12 weeks of the season
3. played at least 1 game in the last 5 weeks of the season

Of the 19, 10 did better "post-wall" and 9 did better "pre-wall" (I'm
defining "better" in terms of fantasy points per game). As you'll see
when you peruse the data below, there's a whole lot of noise and
really not enough info to draw too many conclusions.

But if you like anecdotal evidence, consider the three most
heavily-used rookie RBs of the past 6 years: Eddie George, Curtis
Martin and Edge James. These are the three who are clearly most
comparable to Tomlinson from a productivity standpoint. All three
finished the season stronger than they started it.

LT may or may not hit a wall, but if the RBs comparable to him didn't,
then do we have any good reason to believe he will?


--------------------------+----------------------+------------------
| First 12 weeks | Last 5 weeks
--------------------------+----------------------+------------------
Name YR | G Rsh YD RcYD TD | G Rsh YD RcYD TD
--------------------------+---------------------------+-------------
Karim Abdul-Jabbar 1996 11 199 696 89 10 | 5 108 420 50 1
Mike Anderson 2000 9 163 776 121 5 | 5 134 724 48 10
Terrell Davis 1995 11 192 883 325 7 | 3 45 234 42 1
Ron Dayne 2000 10 158 587 10 4 | 5 67 184 1 1
Warrick Dunn 1997 11 140 614 351 7 | 5 84 364 111 0
Robert Edwards 1998 11 190 665 259 8 | 5 101 450 72 4
Olandis Gary 1999 7 173 625 112 4 | 5 103 534 47 3
Eddie George 1996 11 227 959 103 4 | 5 108 409 79 4
Darick Holmes 1995 10 131 487 182 2 | 5 41 211 32 2
Edgerrin James 1999 11 257 1076 467 9 | 5 111 473 126 8
J.J. Johnson 1999 11 125 413 65 3 | 2 39 145 35 1
Jamal Lewis 2000 12 199 925 252 2 | 4 110 439 44 4
Curtis Martin 1995 11 235 856 139 10 | 5 133 631 122 5
Lawrence Phillips 1996 11 148 478 25 4 | 4 45 154 3 1
Rashaan Salaam 1995 11 194 634 29 6 | 5 102 440 27 4
Antowain Smith 1997 11 141 648 101 5 | 5 53 192 76 3
Fred Taylor 1998 10 162 806 320 12 | 5 102 417 101 5
Rodney Thomas 1995 11 161 607 158 4 | 5 90 340 46 3
Ricky Williams 1999 10 216 816 136 2 | 2 37 68 36 0

Russell Carswell

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Oct 12, 2001, 4:24:20 PM10/12/01
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Doug Drinen wrote:
>
> beezmach<beez...@yahoo.commie> wrote in message
> > > Most players in their first seasons admit to hitting the "rookie
> > >wall." They are used to playing 11-12 game seasons in college. It's
> > >tough for their bodies to adjust to the extra games plus the faster
> > >pace.
>
> > Anybody have per-game stats? Drinen? I'd like to see something on this.
>
> Let's assume the "wall" should be encountered around week 12 (roughly
> the end of a college season).
>
> Since 1995, I found 19 RBs that met the following criteria:
>
> 1. rookie
> 2. had at least 125 carries in the first 12 weeks of the season
> 3. played at least 1 game in the last 5 weeks of the season
>
> Of the 19, 10 did better "post-wall" and 9 did better "pre-wall" (I'm
> defining "better" in terms of fantasy points per game). As you'll see
> when you peruse the data below, there's a whole lot of noise and
> really not enough info to draw too many conclusions.

So what you're saying is that Bushong made up his theory about the wall?

Greg Kellogg

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Oct 13, 2001, 1:27:38 AM10/13/01
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But Williams traditionally is injured in the latter part of the season
and most leagues have their Bye week in week 16. Also, with the move
of week 2 to the final weekend, how does that affect SDs Bye?

Damage Inc.

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Oct 13, 2001, 2:09:07 AM10/13/01
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>>>And where can you prove this? This sounds like B.S. to me.
>>
>> Most players in their first seasons admit to hitting the "rookie
>>wall." They are used to playing 11-12 game seasons in college. It's
>>tough for their bodies to adjust to the extra games plus the faster
>>pace.

Football players dont hit "the wall". Basketball players do and they do so
around the 45th game of the season, once they have played a few games BEYOND
what they were used to play in college.

In football, even though players play 11 games, they also have the bowl game to
deal with, so they continue practicing till late December and the play in Jan
1st. So their season is not that short at all when compared to an NFL'er,
hence, they dont hit ANY wall.

"The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present"
--Abraham Lincoln

Michael Bushong

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Oct 13, 2001, 3:29:41 AM10/13/01
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There have been compelling arguments suggesting that "the wall" philosophy
is a crock of shit. I am inclined to admit that I bought into something
based more on what I heard experts talk about and less on what the actual
numbers indicate.

That being said, I believe San Diego's bye is Jan 7 or 6 or whatever that
day is. I believe that is the adjusted day. In some of my leagues,
that is the championship week. In other leagues, the last week is just a
filler week because a lot of teams rest stars on the last game before
the playoffs.

If your championship game is not that week, then Tomlinson looks to be
the real deal, and by all accounts, I wouldn't worry about the wall.
Willams' injury problems are a concern. I really don't know who I would
rather have. Tomlinson has looked great so far, but is 4 games a trend or
just a hot start? It is hard to say. I have watched 3 of those games
on satellite, and I have to admit, he looks pretty damn polished.

-Mike


Greg Kellogg <gr...@komments.com> wrote:
: But Williams traditionally is injured in the latter part of the season

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