Obama's new Afghanistan plan may be much like old one
tina
President Obama is expected to announce next week his decision on
troop numbers and strategy for the war in Afghanistan. It won't be too
different from the policy laid out in March, say experts.
By Gordon Lubold | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
from the November 24, 2009 edition
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WASHINGTON - The Afghanistan war plan President Obama will announce
next week won't stray far from the strategy he laid out eight months
ago, say experts.
After nine meetings with his war council – and reports of vigorous
disagreement within the administration – Mr. Obama seems likely to
stick to the strategy he announced in March, perhaps incorporating
elements from other proposals.
His top general in Afghanistan favors a "counterinsurgency" approach
that would entail a massive increase in the number of US troops there.
Others such as Vice President Biden reportedly prefer a "counter-
terrorism" policy that would emphasize targeted strikes on terrorist
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"There will be something in there for everyone," says one official who
is close to the deliberations. "Nobody got everything, but everybody
got something."
Obama indicated Tuesday that he was not shying away from the fight in
Afghanistan. "It is in our strategic interest, in our national
security interest, to make sure that Al Qaeda and its extremist allies
cannot operate effectively in those areas," Obama said at the White
House. "We are going to dismantle and degrade their capabilities and
ultimately dismantle and destroy their networks." http://www.nikebing.com
Obama's plan is likely to include:
•More forces. Obama is expected to announce an increase of between
30,000 and 40,000 additional forces for Afghanistan on top of the
68,000 already there. Those forces will conduct combat missions as
well as training missions to increase the size of the Afghan national
security forces. The additional forces, depending on their number,
will be used to shore up sparsely-deployed forces around the country
or concentrated on populated areas.
•More civilians. For years, military officials in Afghanistan have
complained that there aren't enough civilians to focus on non-military
aspects such as economic development and governance. Expect an
increase in civilian efforts in the coming year. http://www.nikebing.com
Deploying civilian expertise was a problem in Iraq even during the
surge of forces there, and so-called civilian surge for Afghanistan
will probably also fall short. It's not clear where the several
hundred civilians – agricultural experts, educators, specialists in
the rule of law and engineers – will come from. The American
government is still largely unable to identify those civilians whose
skills would be relevant to such a mission and deploy them
accordingly. However, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has
made this issue a priority and is expected to be aggressive in
deploying them under a new strategy.
•More Afghan National Security Forces. Developing a stronger
indigenous security force in Afghanistan has long been seen as the key
to ultimately leaving the country safe. But efforts to do so have
until now lacked the resources and momentum. Democrats are calling for
this to dominate the new strategy. Obama will emphasize growing the
Afghan National Security Forces to about 400,000 – roughly double of
the current goal – over the next few years. http://www.nikebing.com
•Deals with some Taliban. Many experts and military commanders believe
that cutting deals with some elements of the Taliban can be effective,
and Obama's new strategy will embrace this.
The "uncompromising core" of the Taliban must be met with force, Obama
said in March. But the Taliban is also composed of militants who plant
roadside bombs not out of ideology so much as economic necessity.
Those kind of militants could be persuaded to lay down their arms and
help the US and its allies keep the Taliban out of their communities.
It worked in Iraq. In 2006, insurgents in Sunni-dominated Anbar
Province who felt Al Qaida had crossed the line and was terrorizing
communities, began to turn against the terrorist group. This
"awakening" was helped by some financial encouragement from the US.
Many say that although Afghanistan is a very different society, the
approach could work there, too.
•Bigger NATO contribution. The Bush administration spent years
pressing NATO to do more in Afghanistan – unsuccessfully. But
recently, NATO members and other countries seem to be becoming more
amenable to the idea. Non-US contributions has grown since January,
from 31,500 in January to around 42,000 today. Britain~~a href="/
2009/1014/p06s11-woeu.html"/~~ recently announced it would send
another 500 troops and is expected to contribute even more. The US is
also targeting Italy, Germany, France, and others to send more troops.
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