Intentional Walk with Bases Loaded
David W Smith
The recent unusual intentional walks to Barry Bonds (bases empty
and bases loaded) bring to mind previous examples of the same.
Retrosheet has documented one special case of bases empty walks
(this report was in the Baseball Weekly On Deck section about three
weeks ago; they feature one unusual play from us each week).
Frank Howard had a great deal of success batting against Sam
McDowell of the Indians. As a result in a game in Washington in
1970, Sam issued five intentional walks to the Senators, three of
them to Frank Howard, and two of those when Howard led off an
inning! The fourth time Frank came to bat, McDowell went to play
first base, returning to the mound in the following inning (in case
you're wondering, Alvin Dark was the overenthusiastic manager of
the Indians).
We have computerized a few hundred games for Babe Ruth's Yankee
days, covering perhaps 2000 or so of his plate appearances. A
quick check of those games reveals no instances of intentional
walks with the bases empty or loaded. Of course, it must be
remembered not only that our records are incomplete, but also that
the intentional walk was not an official statistic until after
World War II and one must be very careful interpreting the language
in the old newspaper accounts. A few researchers have looked for
intentional walks to Ruth, but there is no consensus that I know of
as to the correct number.
Dave Smith
jmac
David W Smith wrote:
>
> The recent unusual intentional walks to Barry Bonds (bases empty
> and bases loaded) bring to mind previous examples of the same.
> Retrosheet has documented one special case of bases empty walks
> (this report was in the Baseball Weekly On Deck section about three
> weeks ago; they feature one unusual play from us each week).
>
> Frank Howard had a great deal of success batting against Sam
> McDowell of the Indians. As a result in a game in Washington in
> 1970, Sam issued five intentional walks to the Senators, three of
> them to Frank Howard, and two of those when Howard led off an
> inning! The fourth time Frank came to bat, McDowell went to play
> first base, returning to the mound in the following inning (in case
> you're wondering, Alvin Dark was the overenthusiastic manager of
> the Indians).
It was actually second base (but who's counting). Dean Chance came in to
pitch to Howard with a man on first and 2 outs. What made it interesting
is that Howard hit a routine grounder to SS, (Jack Heidemann, I believe)
who, out of habit and not thinking about who was playing second, flipped
over to the second base bag for the 3rd out, where McDowell went through
several Wallenda-like contortions before he managed to catch the ball.
(At least he knew where he was supposed to be on the play.)
James Tuttle
David W Smith wrote:
>
> The recent unusual intentional walks to Barry Bonds (bases empty
> and bases loaded) bring to mind previous examples of the same.
> Retrosheet has documented one special case of bases empty walks
> (this report was in the Baseball Weekly On Deck section about three
> weeks ago; they feature one unusual play from us each week).
Intentional walks are indeed special, and they pose special problems for
me. I credit bases to the player(s) who earned them, and it's plainly
not right as a general rule to give full credit to the recipient of an
IBB.
Normally, there's a runner on first and/or second with first base open
whenever an IBB issues. What created the situation for the IBB is
therefore some runner going beyond first base. Whatever and whoever
caused that to happen is what/who enabled the intentional pass, so some
of the credit for the base should go there.
Some examples:
- Adams doubles, Bush walks intentionally. Adams gets some of the
credit for pulling Bush on base.
- Adams walks, Bush sacrifices him to second, Clinton walks
intentionally. Here, it was Bush who moved the runner and opened up
first for the IBB.
- Adams singles, takes second on a PB, and Bush gets the IBB. Bush's
walk is a result in this case of the PB, so Bush's base is unearned.
- Adams walks, Bush singles him to second, Clinton hits into a DP with
Adams taking third, Dole is walked intentionally. Here it was Clinton
who freed up first. But Clinton gets no credit -- he doesn't deserve
it. Adams on third occasions the IBB, and it was Bush who moved Adams
beyond first. So Bush shares the IBB credit.
Sometimes an IBB isn't an IBB. I treat it as a regular walk when the
bases are empty or whenever first base is occupied.
And some walks are "semi-intentional." Any walk with runners at second
and third, and any two-out walk with a runner at second is intentional,
as far as I'm concerned.
dke...@best.com
In article <358800...@daedal.net>, James Tuttle <j...@daedal.net> wrote:
>David W Smith wrote:
>>
>> The recent unusual intentional walks to Barry Bonds (bases empty
>> and bases loaded) bring to mind previous examples of the same.
>> Retrosheet has documented one special case of bases empty walks
>> (this report was in the Baseball Weekly On Deck section about three
>> weeks ago; they feature one unusual play from us each week).
>
>Intentional walks are indeed special, and they pose special problems for
>me. I credit bases to the player(s) who earned them, and it's plainly
>not right as a general rule to give full credit to the recipient of an
>IBB.
Except, of course, in this case where it was. No other
player in MLB would have been walked there. Bonds gave
real value in that plate appearance.
--
Dave Eisen Sequoia Peripherals: (408) 752-1400
dke...@netcom.com FAX: (408) 752-2707
In our society, you can state your views, but they have to be correct.
--- Ernie Hai, coordinator Singapore Gov't Internet Project.
David W Smith
In article <358741...@newsguy.com>, jmac <jmac-...@newsguy.com> wrote:
>David W Smith wrote:
>>
>> The recent unusual intentional walks to Barry Bonds (bases empty
>> and bases loaded) bring to mind previous examples of the same.
>> Retrosheet has documented one special case of bases empty walks
>> (this report was in the Baseball Weekly On Deck section about three
>> weeks ago; they feature one unusual play from us each week).
>>
David W Smith
In article <6m9s6q$1p4$1...@copland.udel.edu>,
Actually, we're both right, because there were two different occasions in
1970 when McDowell went to a non-pitcher position. The game I mentioned
was September 2, and McDowell did go to first base, with Dean Chance
coming in to pitch. The absolutely hilarious thing is that Howard hit a
ground ball into the hole on the right side which McDowell fielded, but
Howard got an infield hit when Chance was slow in covering first! The
game in which Sam went to second base was July 6. Howard already had two
singles that day, had been walked once intentionally and once
non-intentionally. When Frank came up in the 8th inning, McDowell was
moved to second base and Dean Chance was once again brough in to pitch.
However, Howard did not hit a ground ball to short, in fact he was
intentionally walked again! This is remarkable and the only reasonable
thing I can imagine is that they started to "pitch around" him, got to a
2-0 count and decided to put him on. That is complete speculation on my
part, but it is reasonable. So with the bases loaded, Chance was still
pitching (to Rick Reichardt) and McDowell was still playing second. Rick
hit a grounder to third base (not shortstop), where it was played by Eddie
Leon, who had been at second base, but moved to third when McDowell went
to second (original third baseman Graig Nettles left the game to make room
for Chance). Leon threw to McDowell at second to force Howard, which is
probably the play that you remembered.
Dave Smith
James Tuttle
Dave Keisen wrote:
>
> James Tuttle wrote:
> >
> >Intentional walks are indeed special, and they pose special problems
> >for me. I credit bases to the player(s) who earned them, and it's
> >plainly not right as a general rule to give full credit to the
> >recipient of an IBB.
>
> Except, of course, in this case where it was. No other
> player in MLB would have been walked there. Bonds gave
> real value in that plate appearance.
Dave, you snipped my post too soon. I went on to say:
James Tuttle
Dave Smith wrote:
> We have computerized a few hundred games for Babe Ruth's Yankee
> days, covering perhaps 2000 or so of his plate appearances. A
> quick check of those games reveals no instances of intentional
> walks with the bases empty or loaded. Of course, it must be
> remembered not only that our records are incomplete, but also that
> the intentional walk was not an official statistic until after
> World War II and one must be very careful interpreting the language
> in the old newspaper accounts. A few researchers have looked for
> intentional walks to Ruth, but there is no consensus that I know of
> as to the correct number.
As I've recently posted in this thread, I give intentional walks special
treatment in my scoring. While I was figuring that out two or three
years ago, I was also concerned about "semi-intentional walks" -- the
kind where the pitcher keeps the ball well out of the strike zone.
"Don't give him anything to hit!"
To get a handle on this, I pulled out Neft & Cohen's "The World Series"
and recorded all the walks issued in WS games during the 80s. I forgot
how many there were ... I have that study around here somewhere ... and
I categorized them as intentional or not, and I categorized them by
base-out.
Then I did some expected value stuff and figured out that in four
specific situations -- runners on first and second with zero, one or two
outs, and runner on second with two outs -- that the walks were either
explicitly intentional or likely semi-intentional.
As a result of that study, I treat all walks in those situations as
intentional.
You could do the same thing to get a handle on Babe Ruth walks.
Probably wouldn't be hard to do.
David W Smith
Babe Ruth -- Partial Batting statistics for Yankees (1920)
G AB H 2B 3B HR TB R RBI TBB IW SO HP SH SF SB CS SB%
115 356 140 30 6 46 320 126 115 118 29 55 3 0 2 10 12 45
GDP BA OBA SA
4 .393 .545 .899
BA OBA SA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Totals .393 .545 .899 356 140 30 6 46 115 118 55
vs. Left .388 .518 .988 85 33 6 0 15 32 23 18
vs. Right .395 .553 .871 271 107 24 6 31 83 95 37
at Home .415 .556 1.005 183 76 18 6 26 63 57 30
on Road .370 .534 .786 173 64 12 0 20 52 61 25
April .308 .308 .385 13 4 1 0 0 2 0 2
May .383 .513 1.033 60 23 5 2 10 22 15 7
June .471 .580 1.029 70 33 6 3 9 32 17 11
July .430 .610 .924 79 34 7 1 10 25 37 15
August .290 .511 .694 62 18 4 0 7 15 28 10
Sept/Oct .389 .521 .903 72 28 7 0 10 19 21 10
Bases Empty .423 .559 1.040 175 74 17 2 29 29 52 29
Leadoff .467 .574 1.120 75 35 11 1 12 12 17 13
Not Leadoff .390 .548 .980 100 39 6 1 17 17 35 16
Runners On .365 .532 .762 181 66 13 4 17 86 66 26
First Base Only .355 .430 .908 76 27 5 2 11 25 10 15
Scoring Pos .371 .585 .657 105 39 8 2 6 61 56 11
Bases Loaded .556 .583 .778 9 5 2 0 0 14 2 1
Late, Close .262 .456 .571 42 11 3 2 2 13 15 8
______________________________________________________________
Babe Ruth -- Partial Batting statistics for Yankees (1921)
G AB H 2B 3B HR TB R RBI TBB IW SO HP SH SF SB CS SB%
138 427 160 35 12 49 366 135 133 117 24 71 3 0 3 10 13 43
GDP BA OBA SA
2 .375 .509 .857
BA OBA SA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
Totals .375 .509 .857 427 160 35 12 49 133 117 71
vs. Left .320 .420 .721 122 39 13 3 10 32 21 23
vs. Right .397 .541 .911 305 121 22 9 39 101 96 48
at Home .401 .544 .968 222 89 22 7 30 71 73 32
on Road .346 .468 .737 205 71 13 5 19 62 44 39
April .424 .512 .939 33 14 5 0 4 11 7 4
May .323 .457 .754 65 21 3 2 7 20 15 14
June .398 .559 .989 93 37 10 3 13 28 34 18
July .340 .514 .720 50 17 2 1 5 15 17 7
August .431 .577 .944 72 31 8 1 9 27 25 11
Sept/Oct .351 .440 .789 114 40 7 5 11 32 19 17
Bases Empty .379 .488 .820 206 78 23 4 20 20 42 35
Leadoff .523 .613 1.077 65 34 11 2 7 7 14 13
Not Leadoff .312 .429 .702 141 44 12 2 13 13 28 22
Runners On .371 .527 .891 221 82 12 8 29 113 75 36
First Base Only .408 .547 1.071 98 40 9 4 16 38 30 9
Scoring Pos .341 .512 .748 123 42 3 4 13 75 45 27
Bases Loaded .400 .417 .800 10 4 0 2 0 12 1 1
Late, Close .367 .556 1.000 30 11 4 0 5 13 14 3
Larry Gene Gariepy, Jr.
dke...@best.com wrote:
>
> [snip]
>
> Except, of course, in this case where it was. No other
> player in MLB would have been walked there. Bonds gave
> real value in that plate appearance.
>
While I agree that Bonds is respected like few players in baseball, I
find
it hard to believe that McGwire would not also have been walked in that
situation. Furthermore, looking at their production for this season so
far, if you choose to walk Bonds in that situation, you HAVE to walk
McGwire
in that situation. He has two grand slams already this year, and
McGwire is
WELL ahead of Bonds in most categories, save hits, doubles, and stolen
bases.
Larry