Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss

Run expectations in the NL this year...

3 views
Skip to first unread message

John DiFool

unread,
Oct 15, 2002, 6:10:08 PM10/15/02
to news-g...@stump.algebra.com

--------------46FBA50881B04F86B8E62D2F
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

I have been playing around with some of the various off-the-shelf
run formulas
and this year's stats (RC, est. runs produced). Oddly enough RC (the
latest, from
the Win Shares book) for the AL was an exact hit on actual runs
(21754). But
even odder is that in the NL RC overestimated runs by almost 800 runs!
(23833
vs. an actual total of only 23062, which is a whopping +50 per team!)
Take a look at the following teams:

OB SLG OPS Runs RC
----------------------------------------------------------
Toronto .326 .430 756 813 783
Cleveland .319 .412 731 739 701
Seattle .348 .419 767 814 830
Minn (def) .316 .427 743 712 738
W. Sox (def) .328 .423 751 798 758

And now the NL...

OB SLG OPS Runs RC
----------------------------------------------------------
Philly .335 .422 757 710 796
Florida .334 .403 737 699 756
Hou (def) .326 .410 736 695 751
Cinn .325 .408 733 709 745
Pitt (def) .338 .423 761 730 773
San Fran .341 .442 783 783 840

(def) means that is the team's defensive stats

So what is going on here? I noticed that the walk rate
in the NL is HIGHER than the AL (which I don't think has
ever happened before). I will say that my formula doesn't
have IBB (which nobody online seems to keep track of for
the defensive side of things, which might make a difference
for some teams like San Fran), but it can't fully account for
these huge differences. Why does Toronto outscore Philadelphia
by 103 runs when their OPS are basically identical? Is there
something strange happening in the NL this year which the stats
aren't capturing (lack of clutch performance being the main
suspect)? I did find outfield assists somewhere, and that
doesn't show anything (Detroit led with 50), nor do errors seem
to be a culprit.

I will note that Paul Johnson's estimated runs produced agrees
with RC in the NL, much more than it does with the actual runs.

Okay-ESPN has performance with RISP, and my suspicions are confirmed:

AVG SLG
------------------------------------
Toronto .273 (.261) .428 (.430)
Cleveland .261 (.249) .442 (.412)
Seattle .280 (.275) .423 (.419)

Philly .237 (.259) .389 (.422)
Florida .248 (.261) .372 (.403)
Cincy .231 (.253) .371 (.408)
San Fran .270 (.267) .427 (.442)

Numbers in parenthesis are the overall averages for the season.

Weird, and strange that a whole league might have a collectively crappy
clutch
performance. Later today I'll check the overall league averages w/
RISP. I put
San Fran's 103 IW into the formula and it only shaved off 7 runs or so,
so I
dunno what their problem is (unless it is the much-debated Barry
Effect).

John DiFool

--
========================================================
Last broken flash of love
Still in the camera
========================================================


--------------46FBA50881B04F86B8E62D2F
Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

<!doctype html public "-//w3c//dtd html 4.0 transitional//en">
<html>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I have been playing around with some of the various
off-the-shelf run formulas
<br>and this year's stats (RC, est. runs produced).&nbsp; Oddly enough
RC (the latest, from
<br>the Win Shares book) for the AL was an exact hit on actual runs (21754).&nbsp;
But
<br>even odder is that in the NL RC overestimated runs by almost 800 runs!&nbsp;
(23833
<br>vs. an actual total of only 23062, which is a whopping +50 per team!)
<br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Take a look at the following teams:
<p><tt>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
OB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; SLG&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
OPS&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Runs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
RC</tt>
<br><tt>----------------------------------------------------------</tt>
<br><tt>Toronto&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .326&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..430&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 756&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
813&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 783</tt>
<br><tt>Cleveland&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .319&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..412&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 731&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
739&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 701</tt>
<br><tt>Seattle&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .348&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..419&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 767&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
814&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 830</tt>
<br><tt>Minn (def)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .316&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..427&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 743&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
712&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 738</tt>
<br><tt>W. Sox (def)&nbsp; .328&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .423&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
751&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 798&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
758</tt>
<p><tt>And now the NL...</tt>
<p><tt>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
OB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; SLG&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
OPS&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Runs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
RC</tt>
<br><tt>----------------------------------------------------------</tt>
<br><tt>Philly&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .335&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..422&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 757&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
710&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 796</tt>
<br><tt>Florida&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .334&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..403&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 737&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
699&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 756</tt>
<br><tt>Hou (def)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .326&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..410&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 736&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
695&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 751</tt>
<br><tt>Cinn&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .325&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..408&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 733&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
709&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 745</tt>
<br><tt>Pitt (def)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .338&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..423&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 761&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
730&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 773</tt>
<br><tt>San Fran&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .341&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
..442&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 783&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
783&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 840</tt>
<p><tt>(def) means that is the team's defensive stats</tt>
<p><tt>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; So what is going on here?&nbsp; I noticed that
the walk rate</tt>
<br><tt>in the NL is HIGHER than the AL (which I don't think has</tt>
<br><tt>ever happened before).&nbsp; I will say that my formula doesn't</tt>
<br><tt>have IBB (which nobody online seems to keep track of for</tt>
<br><tt>the defensive side of things, which might make a difference</tt>
<br><tt>for some teams like San Fran), but it can't fully account for</tt>
<br><tt>these huge differences.&nbsp; Why does Toronto outscore Philadelphia</tt>
<br><tt>by 103 runs when their OPS are basically identical?&nbsp; Is there</tt>
<br><tt>something strange happening in the NL this year which the stats</tt>
<br><tt>aren't capturing (lack of clutch performance being the main</tt>
<br><tt>suspect)?&nbsp; I did find outfield assists somewhere, and that</tt>
<br><tt>doesn't show anything (Detroit led with 50), nor do errors seem</tt>
<br><tt>to be a culprit.</tt>
<p><tt>I will note that Paul Johnson's estimated runs produced agrees</tt>
<br><tt>with RC in the NL, much more than it does with the actual runs.</tt>
<p>Okay-ESPN has performance with RISP, and my suspicions are confirmed:
<p><tt>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
AVG&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; SLG</tt>
<br><tt>------------------------------------</tt>
<br><tt>Toronto&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .273 (.261)&nbsp;&nbsp;
..428 (.430)</tt>
<br><tt>Cleveland&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .261 (.249)&nbsp;&nbsp;
..442 (.412)</tt>
<br><tt>Seattle&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .280 (.275)&nbsp;&nbsp;
..423 (.419)</tt><tt></tt>
<p><tt>Philly&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .237 (.259)&nbsp;&nbsp;
..389 (.422)</tt>
<br><tt>Florida&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .248 (.261)&nbsp;&nbsp;
..372 (.403)</tt>
<br><tt>Cincy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .231
(.253)&nbsp;&nbsp; .371 (.408)</tt>
<br><tt>San Fran&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .270 (.267)&nbsp;&nbsp;
..427 (.442)</tt>
<p>Numbers in parenthesis are the overall averages for the season.
<p>Weird, and strange that a whole league might have a collectively crappy
clutch
<br>performance.&nbsp; Later today I'll check the overall league averages
w/ RISP.&nbsp; I put
<br>San Fran's 103 IW into the formula and it only shaved off 7 runs or
so, so I
<br>dunno what their problem is (unless it is the much-debated Barry Effect).
<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; John
DiFool
<p>--
<br>========================================================
<br>Last broken flash of love
<br>Still in the camera
<br>========================================================
<br>&nbsp;</html>

--------------46FBA50881B04F86B8E62D2F--

John DiFool

unread,
Oct 18, 2002, 2:30:03 PM10/18/02
to news-g...@stump.algebra.com
0 new messages