Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 22 - 28 October 2012

[SWPC.We...@noaa.gov]

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Oct 29 0547 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 - 28 October 2012

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Activity was high
during 22 - 23 October due to two major flares from Region 1598
(S11, L=113, class/area Dki/420 on 23 October). The first was an
impulsive M5/1f at 22/1851 UTC and the second was an impulsive X1 at
23/0317 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep and a 620 sfu
Tenflare. Region 1598 displayed a delta magnetic configuration
within its trailer spots during 23 - 27 October. It showed gradual
trailer spot decay beginning 24 October. Activity dropped to low
levels during 24 - 28 with low-level C-class flares, most of which
were from Regions 1598 and 1594 (S26, L=200, class/area Dao/090 on
16 October). Two Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
occurred on 27 October. The CMEs were closely spaced in time and
appeared to be associated with a B9/Sf flare at 27/1235 UTC from
Region 1598.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels during most of the period with moderate levels observed
on 27 October.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the
period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 October - 24 November 2012

Solar activity is expected to be low during the period with a slight
chance for M-class flares during 29 October - 02 November and 15 -
24 November.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels during 29 October - 04
November. High flux levels are expected during 05 - 24 November.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during
29 - 30 October. An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is
expected late on 31 October, with a chance for active levels, due to
the arrival of the CMEs observed on 27 October. A further increase
to active levels is expected on 01 November, with a chance for minor
storm periods, as CME effects continue. Field activity is expected
to decrease to unsetttled to active levels on 02 November as CME
effects gradually subside and a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH
HSS) begins to disturb the field. Activity is expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled levels on 03 November as CH HSS effects
subside. Quiet conditions are expected during 04 - 07 November. An
increase to unsettled levels is predicted for 08 November, due to a
solar sector boundary crossing followed by a co-rotating interaction
region in advance of a CH HSS. A further increase to active levels
is expected on 09 November, with a chance for minor storm periods,
due to a CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to active
levels on 10 November as CH HSS effects subside. Quiet levels are
expected during 11 - 24 November.