Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 12 - 18 February 2024

[SWPC.We...@noaa.gov]

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Feb 19 0216 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 - 18 February 2024

Solar activity reached high levels on 12 and 16 Feb, and moderate
levels on 14-15 Feb. The largest event of the period was an X2.5/1n
flare at 16/0653 UTC from Region 3576 (S16, L=060,
class/area=Fkc/660 on 14 Feb). Region 3576 was the largest and most
active sunspot region of the period, and in addition to the X-flare,
produced eight M-class flares throughout the week. Region 3582 (N06,
L=035, class/area=Dai/240 on 13 Feb) produced an isolated M1 flare
at 14/0310 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed this period.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels on
12-13 Feb, and S1 levels on 14 Feb, following a C6.9 flare at
12/0554 UTC from Region 3576. A peak flux of 118 pfu was observed at
13/0615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above
background levels over 15-18 Feb, but remained below event
thresholds.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 12 Feb. Active levels were
observed on 13 Feb, and unsettled levels were observed on 14 Feb,
due to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 10-11 Feb. Quiet conditions
were observed over 15-17 Feb, and quiet to unsettled conditions were
observed on 18 Feb.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 February - 16 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be low with a varying chance for
M-class flare activity throughout the period. Old Region 3575 (S37,
L=177), which produced M-class flares last rotation and multiple
CMEs during its transit of the far-side, is expected to return to
the visible disk on 20 Feb.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook
period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet throughout
the outlook period. Unsettled conditions are likely on 19-20 Feb due
to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 16 Feb, and again on 26-27
Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.