Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 05 - 11 February 2024

[SWPC.We...@noaa.gov]

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Feb 12 0224 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 - 11 February 2024

Solar activity ranged from moderate levels to very high levels this
period. In total, one X-class flare and 18 M-class flares and were
observed. The largest event was an X3.3 flare at 09/1314 UTC from
Region 3575 (S36, L=177, class/area=Dkc/270 on 05 Feb), which was
beyond the SW limb at the time of the event. Region 3576 (S16,
L=057, class/area=Fkc/740 on 11 Feb) was the largest and most active
region this week and produced the bulk of the M-class flare
activity; most notable was an M9.0 flare at 10/2307 UTC which
produced an Earth-directed CME expected to arrive late on 12
Feb/early on 13 Feb. Other notable activity included a filament
eruption centered near S37W02 at 08/2000 UTC which resulted in an
Earth-directed CME expected to arrive on 12 Feb.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate)
levels following the X3.3 flare at 09/1314 UTC. The solar radiation
storm began at 09/1530 UTC, reached a peak flux of 187 pfu at
09/2355 UTC, and decreased below event threshold at 11/1805 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux persisted just below event
thresholds after 11/1805 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate
levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet and unsettled on 05-06 Feb due
to a combination of positive polarity CH HSS influences and the
arrival of a CME from 01 Feb. Quiet conditions were observed over
07-08 Feb. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 09 Feb with
the arrival of a CME from 06 Feb late in the day. Quiet conditions
were observed on 10 Feb. Quiet to active conditions were observed on
11 Feb due to the arrival of a shock associated with the 09/1314 UTC
X3.3 flare. The interplanetary shock was observed in solar wind data
at 11/0121 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 350
km/s to 439 km/s, eventually reaching 634 km/s by 11/1410 UTC. Total
field increased from 4 nT to 19 nT initially, while the Bz component
indicated a mostly negative trend to a low of -15 nT. A geomagnetic
sudden impulse was observed at Earth with a 40 nT deviation (Boulder
Magnetometer) at 11/0211 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 February - 09 March 2024

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the
period with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 15-17 Feb, with normal to moderate
levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 12-14 Feb, and G2 (Moderate) levels on 13 Feb, due to the
anticipated arrival of CMEs from 08 and 10 Feb. Quiet and unsettled
conditions are expected on 26-27 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS
influences. Quiet levels are expected throughout the remainder of
the period.