Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 31 October - 06 November 2022

[SWPC.We...@noaa.gov]

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Nov 07 0624 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
31 October - 06 November 2022

Solar activity was at very low to high levels during the period. Low
levels were observed on 31 Oct through 04 Nov with the majority of
the low to mid-level C-class activity produced by Regions 3135 (N27,
L=063, class/area Eao/190 on 31 Oct), 3131 (N23, L=111, class/area
Cso/190 on 27 Oct), and 3141 (N15, L=319, class/area Eko/460 on 06
Nov). Region 3141 rotated onto the visible disk on 04 Nov as a large
bipolar spot group, however the magnetic classification has been
difficult to ascertain due to possible artifacts in the magnetogram
imagery. Very low levels were observed on 05 Nov. By late on 06 Nov,
an M5.2 flare occurred from Region 3141 reaching a peak at 07/0011
UTC. Associated with the flare was a Type II radio sweep (927 km/s),
a 740 sfu Tenflare, and likely a CME off the SE as was evident by
coronal darkening in GOES/SUVI 195 imagery beginning at 07/0008 UTC.
Analysis of any associated CME is pending as imagery becomes
available. Other CMEs preceding this event did not have an
Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period due to CH HSS influences. The peak
flux was 8,980 pfu observed at 06/1515 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels due to multiple CH HSSs. Solar wind speed began the period
near 500 km/s with total field near 5 nT. Solar wind speed slowly
receded to near 410 km/s by late on 01 Nov. By midday on 02 Nov,
total field and solar wind speed began to increase once again to
near 10 nT and 560 km/s. Solar wind speed decreased to near 460 km/s
on 03 Nov before increasing once again to near 580 km/s late on 03
Nov to early on 04 Nov. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased to
background levels through 06 Nov. The geomagnetic field responded
with quiet to unsettled levels on 31 Oct. Increased to quiet to
active levels on 01-02 Nov and quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on
03 Nov. Quiet to active levels were observed on 04 Nov followed by
quiet to unsettled conditions on 05 Nov and ended at quiet levels on
06 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 November - 03 December 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels
throughout the forecast period with a slight chance for further
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 07-16 Nov due primarily to
the flare potential of Region 3141.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 07-09 Nov and again on 26 Nov-03
Dec due to HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled to
active levels on 07-12 Nov, 18-20 Nov, and 23 Nov-03 Dec with G1
(Minor) storm levels likely on 18 Nov, 25 Nov, and 30 Nov due to
recurrent CH HSS activity.