Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 09 - 15 January 2023

[SWPC.We...@noaa.gov]

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Jan 16 0453 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 January 2023

Solar activity ranged from moderate to high levels during a very
active week of solar flaring. Region 3184 (S13, L=180, class/area,
Ekc/730 on 11 Jan) produced the largest event of the reporting
period with an X1.9/3b flare (R3-Strong) at 09/1850 UTC. Region 3184
also produced multiple M-class flares: an M1.1/Sf at 09/0102 UTC; an
M1.0/Sf at 10/0216 UTC; an M1.0 at 10/1108 UTC; an M1.2 at 10/1748
UTC; and an M5.6/1b at 11/0156 UTC with an associated Tenflare and
Type II radio sweep (628 km/s) at 11/0153 UTC. The next largest
event was an X1.0/2b flare (R3-Strong) from Region 3186 (N25, L=170,
class/area, Eki/500 on 13 Jan) with an associated Tenflare, at
10/2247 UTC. Region 3186 produced: an M5.1/Sf at 10/0016 UTC; an
M1.3 at 10/1728 UTC; an M2.4/1f at 11/0059 UTC; an M3.1/Sn at
11/0833 UTC; an M1.1 at 12/0618 UTC; an M1.5 at 12/0646 UTC; and an
M1.4/1n at 13/0259 UTC. Not to be left out of the solar flare
activity was Region 3181 (S17, L=280, class/area, Ekc/700 on 10 Jan)
providing: an M2.1/1n at 09/0901 UTC; an M1.0 at 09/1322 UTC; an
M2.6/2n at 10/0241 UTC; an M1.3/Sf at 11/0609 UTC; an M1.2/Sf at
12/1128 UTC; and an M3.9/Sn at 13/1015 UTC with an associated Type
II radio sweep (381 km/s) at 13/1020 UTC. Region 3182 (S17, L=226,
class/area, Ekc/950 on 09 Jan) contributed: an M1.0 at 12/1457 UTC;
an M1.2 at 12/1913 UTC; an M3.5 at 14/2021 UTC; and an M4.6 at
14/2100 UTC. Region 3191 (N12, L=127, class/area, Dac/170 on 15 Jan)
produced an M1.3/Sf at 14/0209 UTC and an M6.0/Sf at 15/0342 UTC,
with an associated Type II radio sweep (223 km/s) at 15/0310 UTC.
Region 3190 (S12, L=122, class/area, Eko/520 on 15 Jan) contributed
an M4.8/2b at 15/1430 UTC. There were a total of 2 X-flares and 23
M-flares during the peroiod. Suprisingly there were only two
Earth-directed CMEs observed from this flury of activity. The first
CME was associated with the M5.6/1b flare at 11/0156 UTC, from
Region 3184 and the second CME was associated with the M4.6 flare at
14/2100 UTC, from Region 3182.

No reportable proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit,
however, 10MeV proton flux became enhanced, reaching a peak flux of
4.51 pfu at 13/0340 UTC. This enhancement followed an observed CME
in LASCO/C2 imagery with a source from around the west limb.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels. G1 conditions were observed on 15 Jan in response to
the 11 Jan CME mentioned above. Total field strength increased to a
peak of 14 nT and Bz dropped as low as -10 nT, with several hours of
sustained, negative Bz. Solar wind speed during the transient rose
to 524 km/sec. Active conditions were observed on 13-14 Jan in
response to negative-polarity CH HSS influence. During the remainder
of the period, quiet to unsettled levels were observed.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 January - 11 February 2023

Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate to high levels
throughout the outlook period due to numerous existing and returning
M and X-class flare producing regions.

There is a slight chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit
during the outlook period due to the magnetic complexity and flare
history of the abundant sunspot groups.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 20-30 Jan in response to recurrent
CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to
be at moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are anticipated
on 26 Jan; active conditions are likely on 19 Jan and 09 Feb;
unsettled conditions are likely on 16, 18, 20-22, 25, 27-28 Jan and
01-02, 07-08 and 10 Feb. Increased geomagnetic activity is in
response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the
outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.