Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 08 - 14 May 2023

[SWPC.We...@noaa.gov]

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 May 15 0254 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 - 14 May 2023

Solar activity reached high levels on 09 May and moderate levels on
08, 10, and 11 May. In total, nine M-class flares were observed from
three sunspot regions this period. Region 3296 (N15, L=140,
class/area=Ekc/290 on 10 May) was the most active sunspot region and
produced two R2 (Moderate) events and four R1 (Minor) events. Region
3294 (S07, L=125, class/area=Cso/130 on 11 May) produced two R1
events and Region 3293 (N13, L=149, class/area=Dhc/290 on 03 May)
produced a single R1 event. Two solar energetic particle (SEP)
events associated with this weeks activity were observed as were
multiple Earth-directed CMEs; see below for more information.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) storm levels
in two distinct SEP events. The first SEP event followed a pair of
long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region
3296 and reached S1 levels at 08/1240 UTC, reached a peak of 38 pfu
at 09/0150 UTC, and ended at 09/1235 UTC. The second SEP event
followed an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region 3296 and reached S1
levels at 09/2335 UTC, reached a peak of 83 pfu at 10/1250 UTC, and
ended at 11/0405 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) levels on 08 May due
to the continued (at the time) influence of CMEs (from 05 May) that
arrived on 07 May. G1 (Minor) storms were observed again on 09-10
May due to the arrival of CMEs that resulted from a pair of
long-duration M1 flares (at 07/2234 UTC and 07/2323 UTC) from Region
3296. G1 (Minor) storms were observed on 12 May due to the arrival
of a CME that resulted from an M4 flare at 09/1858 UTC from Region
3296.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 May - 10 June 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 23 May-02 Jun, with normal to
moderate levels expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach active levels on 16
May due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 12 May. G1 (Minor)
storms are likely on 24 May, with active levels likely on 23, 25-26
May, due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS influences. Active
conditions are likely on 02 Jun in response to recurrent positive
polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook
period.