OT - The Future

[vito]

The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle....!

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they
went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next
10 years and, most people won't see it coming.
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures
on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had
10,000 pixels, but followed Moore 's law. So as with all exponential
technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way
superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now
happen again with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and
electric cars, education, 3Dprinting, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to
the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10
years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they
don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world This year, a computer beat the best Go-player
in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US , young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's
Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers
in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more
accurate than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize
faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more
intelligent than humans. ( NEVER!/Albert)

Autonomous cars : In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for
the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and can be productive while driving.
Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for
that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now
have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million mi (10 million km).
That will save a million lives each year. (ONE MILLION EXTRA PEOPLE TO
FEED)

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car
companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,
while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary
approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of
Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance
business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,
people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less
noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production
has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the
burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to
prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't
last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of
salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@0.25 cents). We don't
have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water
as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are
companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from
Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan,
your blood sample and you breath into it.

It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any
disease.. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet
will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.
Goodbye, medical establishment.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became100 times
faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing
shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the
large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office
building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D
printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in,
first ask yourself: "In the future, do I think we will have that?" and
if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.

Work : 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will
be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new
jobs in such a short time. This will require a rethink on wealth
distribution.

Agriculture : There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field
instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced
veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in
2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.
Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market
shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as
"alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the
idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood
you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

[Dusty]

On 11-May-17 06:19, vito wrote:
>
> The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle....!
>
> In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
> worldwide.
> Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they
> went bankrupt.
>

...<snippage>...

>
> There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood
> you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
> expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
> being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
>

A most interesting article, Vito. Thank you for posting it. Can I get
a source for it?

TIA,
Dusty
--
"Remember, eat a live frog first thing in the morning, and nothing worse
can happen to you for the rest of the day."-Unk

[Bruce]

An interesting, if wildly optimistic, projection of what is about to
come. I have my doubts about a couple of the projections coming to
pass, but they are fun anyway.

I do, however, wish that when you copy and paste stuff like this, you
would include an attribution.

--
Bruce

No arts; no letters; no society; and which is worst of all, continual
fear, and danger of violent death: and the life of man, solitary, poor,
nasty, brutish and short.~~Thomas Hobbs, Leviathan 1651
https://fee.org/articles/think-twice-before-glamorizing-the-remote-past/

[Bruce]

On 5/11/2017 8:21 AM, Dusty wrote:
> On 11-May-17 06:19, vito wrote:
>> The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle....!
>> In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
>> worldwide.
>> Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they
>> went bankrupt.
>>

> ....<snippage>...

>> There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood
>> you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
>> expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
>> being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
>>
> A most interesting article, Vito. Thank you for posting it. Can I get
> a source for it?
>
> TIA,
> Dusty

In case Vito misses your question:

http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-conservative/2017/02/the-future-is-approaching-faster-than-one-can-handle-3253644.html

I asked the same thing, but Google was faster.

[RMcBane]

Much of what the article talks about was the stuff
of Sci Fi in the last century.

--
Richard McBane

[vito]

On Thu, 11 May 2017 08:21:18 -0700, Dusty
<Dus...@bagitREMOVETHIShere.com> wrote:

>
>A most interesting article, Vito. Thank you for posting it. Can I get
>a source for it?
>
>TIA,
>Dusty

Sorry, a friend emailed it to me. I don't know the source.

[vito]

On Thu, 11 May 2017 09:21:08 -0700, Bruce <bruce...@gmail.com>
wrote:

>> A most interesting article, Vito. Thank you for posting it. Can I get
>> a source for it?
>>
>> TIA,
>> Dusty
>
>In case Vito misses your question:
>
>http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-conservative/2017/02/the-future-is-approaching-faster-than-one-can-handle-3253644.html
>
>I asked the same thing, but Google was faster.

Thanks. What did the Ukranian women look like?

[Moro Grubb of Little Delving]

On Thursday, May 11, 2017 at 6:19:42 AM UTC-7, vito wrote:
> The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle....!
>
> In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
> worldwide.
> Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they
> went bankrupt.

> ...snip....

Flying cars? When are we getting flying cars? :-)

/M

[Bruce]

Huh?????

[nothermark]

And is what I have been looking at while it happened.

FWIW Kodak invented the digital camera then suppressed it because they
were making too much money on film and paper. That let Canon come in
and eat their lunch and dinner.

Xerox has rebranded itself as a service company. The only part of the
market the old copier pioneer still has is high end high volume where
they compete with Kodak. Anything smaller is a rebranded import. They
are making toner for Samsung though.

Rochester Products home of the carburetor is part of IT&T and
somewhere in China or Mexico.

The GM fuel cell vehicle research was packed up and moved to Michigan.
Here is who they are partnering with and what might happen:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/01/30/general-motors-honda-fuel-cell-deal/97240096/

I said might because I don't know how serious they are and how much is
sucking up government subsidies. I do know they thought they had a
marketable product when they closed down the plant a couple of years
ago.

They are building a second hydroponic tomato factory around here. All
done inside with hanging vines and crappy tomatoes.

The ideal that we can eliminate many cars when autonomous becomes
available is a pipe dream of the city dweller who does not have a
place to park anyway. Unless the rest of the country adopts staggered
work hours we will still need all the cars for rush hour and they will
sit empty most of the day. OTOH buses and taxi service might go down
the tube fast. Why ride in a half empty huge people hauler to some
inconvenient stop at the wrong time when one can get door to door
scheduled with a vehicle suited to your need? Special cars for those
in wheel chairs or with other issues.

It will be interesting watching the government cover the butts of the
power companies if solar, wind and Tesla batteries become common. OTOH
the car companies might switch to a different drive train but I don't
see a better setup then ICE for long distance in the near future. If
hydrogen takes off it will probably come from cracking petroleum so we
are still dealing with fossil fuels. That cuts a lot of the
attraction.

Despite Vito's dreams Doctors will not go away or get poorer. The
apps will just help get you into the office.

enough for now

[Major Oz]

On Friday, May 12, 2017 at 8:50:46 PM UTC-5, nothermark wrote:

....MAJOR snipping....

> The ideal that we can eliminate many cars when autonomous becomes
> available is a pipe dream of the city dweller who does not have a
> place to park anyway. Unless the rest of the country adopts staggered
> work hours we will still need all the cars for rush hour and they will
> sit empty most of the day. OTOH buses and taxi service might go down
> the tube fast. Why ride in a half empty huge people hauler to some
> inconvenient stop at the wrong time when one can get door to door
> scheduled with a vehicle suited to your need?

#1 son lives about 50 miles from the Shell building in downtown Houston, where he works.

He drives his old rustbucket that cost less than #1K about five minutes to a dedicated bus stop on the "mainline" into the city.

Bus delivers him under the portico at the Shell building
(doesn't even get wet in the rain)

Picks him up there at the end of the day and takes him back to his park n' ride.

Says the cost isn't much more than fuel would be.

....and....his rule is that he does NOT do anything business related on the bus...reads fiction....earbuds in for music....

Wife says he gets home relaxed and easier to be around.


(and the dedicated bus is a new(er) business)

[bill horne]

Yeah, but I'll bet the bus company CEO is an old fat white man making
an obscene salary, while the poor illegal immigrant bus drivers and
mechanics aren't even making a Living Wage. And since it costs more to
ride the bus than to drive, then it's intuitively obvious to the most
casual socialist that the Fare Ain't Fair.

The Commonsense solution for Park 'n Ride is single payer. It's The
Right Thing To Do.

Faik Nutterrmark

[vito]

On Sat, 13 May 2017 11:17:25 -0700 (PDT), Major Oz <ozm...@gmail.com>
wrote:

I'd love to own a nice car - a turbo corvettte or a Ferarri - AND be
able to drive it. But to spend 99% of the time stuck behind a minivan
in stop and go traffic ?? I might as well dial up Uber and let the
robot deal with the fustration. Face it, population and the EPA have
killed any interest in cars except for the lucky few.

I remember the 2-lane road between Reno and Vagas, to busy with the
Curta calculator and Halda speed pilot to notice, telling the driver
that we were falling behind the rally speed - then him replying
"Jesus, I'm doing over 150 ....

Them days are gone forever. Bring on Uber.

[bill horne]

Hey, man. I still go to rocket launch cancellations at 8 over most of
the way. The only thing that'll get me in a robocar is confiscation of
my keys and the lack of a willing human driver.

--
bill
Theory don't mean squat if it don't work.