survivalism for the suburbanite / citydweller
yoko....@gmail.com
Does anyone think he's full of shit, and that life will plod along
pretty much as per normal for the next 60 years? If you think his
predictions of shit-hitting-the-fan anytime sometime soon are quite
likely (within 10 years or so is the impression I get from his posts)
then what are you doing about it, or not? Are you buying gold with
your savings & burying it in the backyard? Or even stocking on dried
food, getting fullon into the survivalist thing? Emails on the matter
are welcomed, if you'd prefer.
I for one am still renting, not even paying off a mortgage yet, so I
guess if what he predicts will happen, then we'll have to move 'back
home' to live with the wife's parents. Ummm ... develop a permaculture
garden in the back yard, try to get self-sufficient and whatnot. Then
buy some guns & stockpile oil etc etc.
thanks,
Charlie
Fraser Johnston
<yoko....@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1163221291.5...@m7g2000cwm.googlegroups.com...
I think to a certain degree he is right. Particularly in regard to peak oil
and the US $ sinking in the toilet if the chinese drop their treasury notes.
But I don't think it will affect us that much in Aus. Our economy is trading
with China more than anyone and we have plenty of raw materials they want. We
also have heaps of natural gas and uranium so energy isn't that big a deal. My
advice to you is to buy property now. You will make more in your family home
than you will working in the next 10 years.
Fraser
Antipodean....@gmail.com
yoko....@gmail.com wrote:
> Was just reading some of Trav's doom-n-gloom financial collapse posts.
> Does anyone think he's full of shit, and that life will plod along
> pretty much as per normal for the next 60 years?
I dunno anymore. I thought the peak oil thing was a pile bullshit, but
I've reconsidered.
Here's one for ya to while away the time
http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/default_standard.htm
> then what are you doing about it, or not? Are you buying gold with
> your savings & burying it in the backyard? Or even stocking on dried
> food, getting fullon into the survivalist thing? Emails on the matter
> are welcomed, if you'd prefer.
Good question.
> home' to live with the wife's parents. Ummm ... develop a permaculture
> garden in the back yard, try to get self-sufficient and whatnot. Then
> buy some guns & stockpile oil etc etc.
I don't think - if it comes to fruition - that it will come down to
bearskins and flint knives. More akin to a depression or a recession.
Having said that, you're pretty well off, ya bastid :)
PS: There is -in fact - a book written on Urban survivalism. Amazon
should have the exact details. Looks interesting, esp. for those who
can't just take off to the hills.
Jacob Andersen
> My advice to you is to buy property now. You will make more in your
family home
> than you will working in the next 10 years.
>
> Fraser
In Denmark that has been true for the last 10 years. Doesn't look like
it will hold true for the next 10. Same a lot of other places.
/Jacob
Fraser Johnston
"Jacob Andersen" <agent...@googlemailthing.com> wrote in message
news:45559b85$0$49209$1472...@news.sunsite.dk...
Can't agree. Land is a finite resource. You get land near the CBD of your
city and will go up. The key is to not over extend.
Fraser
Jacob Andersen
Sure, in time it will go up again. It might not be anytime soon though.
/Jacob
Shuurai
yoko....@gmail.com wrote:
> Was just reading some of Trav's doom-n-gloom financial collapse posts.
> Does anyone think he's full of shit, and that life will plod along
> pretty much as per normal for the next 60 years? If you think his
> predictions of shit-hitting-the-fan anytime sometime soon are quite
> likely (within 10 years or so is the impression I get from his posts)
> then what are you doing about it, or not? Are you buying gold with
> your savings & burying it in the backyard? Or even stocking on dried
> food, getting fullon into the survivalist thing? Emails on the matter
> are welcomed, if you'd prefer.
I always think Trav is full of shit. Unfortunately this time he's at
least partially right - the American economy is in trouble, and it's
not going to be able to support itself for much longer. Too much
government debt - and too much private debt too.
I don't think it'll get to the Road Warrior stage (but I've already got
one dune buggy!) but more like a depression.
The thing Trav doesn't seem to understand - and I except this will draw
a nasty post from him with lots of capital letters - is that the other
major financial powers in the world have a serious interest in keeping
us afloat. If our economy goes down the toilet, a lot of others will
follow.
> I for one am still renting, not even paying off a mortgage yet, so I
> guess if what he predicts will happen, then we'll have to move 'back
> home' to live with the wife's parents. Ummm ... develop a permaculture
> garden in the back yard, try to get self-sufficient and whatnot. Then
> buy some guns & stockpile oil etc etc.
Better yet, find a job that *has* to be done and do it well.
Worst comes to worst I'm jumping the border into Canada and getting
some papers that prove I'm a citizen eh?
Strider44
I think it'll be a slow decline of wages versus cost of living along
with moral values...same as it's been for the last 50 years.. if this
kind of thing (survivalism) interests you join up here
http://groups-beta.google.com/group/misc.survivalism
On Nov 11, 7:14 am, "Shuurai" <Shuura...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> yoko.gur...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Was just reading some of Trav's doom-n-gloom financial collapse posts.
> > Does anyone think he's full of shit, and that life will plod along
> > pretty much as per normal for the next 60 years? If you think his
> > predictions of shit-hitting-the-fan anytime sometime soon are quite
> > likely (within 10 years or so is the impression I get from his posts)
> > then what are you doing about it, or not? Are you buying gold with
> > your savings & burying it in the backyard? Or even stocking on dried
> > food, getting fullon into the survivalist thing? Emails on the matter
> > are welcomed, if you'd prefer.I always think Trav is full of shit. Unfortunately this time he's at
> least partially right - the American economy is in trouble, and it's
> not going to be able to support itself for much longer. Too much
> government debt - and too much private debt too.
>
> I don't think it'll get to the Road Warrior stage (but I've already got
> one dune buggy!) but more like a depression.
>
> The thing Trav doesn't seem to understand - and I except this will draw
> a nasty post from him with lots of capital letters - is that the other
> major financial powers in the world have a serious interest in keeping
> us afloat. If our economy goes down the toilet, a lot of others will
> follow.
>
> > I for one am still renting, not even paying off a mortgage yet, so I
> > guess if what he predicts will happen, then we'll have to move 'back
> > home' to live with the wife's parents. Ummm ... develop a permaculture
> > garden in the back yard, try to get self-sufficient and whatnot. Then
> > buy some guns & stockpile oil etc etc.Better yet, find a job that *has* to be done and do it well.
Jerry B. Altzman
> The thing Trav doesn't seem to understand - and I except this will draw
> a nasty post from him with lots of capital letters - is that the other
> major financial powers in the world have a serious interest in keeping
> us afloat. If our economy goes down the toilet, a lot of others will
> follow.
Their interest in the US as world consumer may be great, but their
ability to keep us afloat may not be enough, especially if they're going
down the toilet at the same time. (Europe is NOT in a position to be
much help, for example.)
//jbaltz
--
jerry b. altzman jba...@altzman.com www.jbaltz.com
thank you for contributing to the heat death of the universe.
trav...@aol.com
> yoko....@gmail.com wrote:
> The thing Trav doesn't seem to understand - and I except this will draw
> a nasty post from him with lots of capital letters - is that the other
> major financial powers in the world have a serious interest in keeping
> us afloat. If our economy goes down the toilet, a lot of others will
> follow.
Well, you "except" right, motherfucker...and HERE'S WHY.
There's no cure for overcapacity except lower prices. Notice two
things here. The first and most obvious is the correct use of the word
"except." The second is that what is ailing the USA is an oversupply
of money. The "rest of the world" cannot keep afloat a nation that
spends itself into debt at a trillion a year. At some point, they
won't.
Listen up and listen good...Peak Oil means two things. One, an end to
expectations of energy supply growth. This, by itself, is massive.
The second is supply shortages as people try to pass the deficit buck
to others. Supply shortages lead to inevitable contests for resources
EVERYONE needs. At that point, WHY finance the USA? Can anyone say
why? Why loan US the money to buy their products? They could loan it
to themselves or the Aussies! There is nothing SPECIAL about the USA
now except our military, which has been "defeated" by Iraq's
insurgency.
You and the rest of the "it can't happen here" or "too big to fail"
types seem to misunderstand that empires DO COLLAPSE! Rome, Spain,
Britain...all of them. There is no such empire as is too big to
collapse. The United States exists now in this standard of living due
to the largess of a few trading partners. When SA no longer is able to
pump at static levels, when China has to fight us for dwindling
resources, then we will see them unload their dollars. At some point,
it becomes cheaper for China to loan chinks the money they're loaning
us to buy their own products. As things stand, China is a case study
in gross capital misallocation and industrial overcapacity.
But, take a step back for a second here...look at what you are
suggesting. The USA has become a fucking crack ho to the world now?
That is the country you want? A ward? How about this: you borrow
money from the local grocer to buy his products. Tell him you're too
big to fail. This situation cannot last forever, man.
When you try to cure inflation with more inflation, you set up an
exponential feedback cycle in currency. Oversupply of currency or
ANYthing leads to a decrease in its value.
The problem that most posters seem to have with my predictions is their
fundamental misunderstanding of economics and currency and what exactly
that I AM predicting.
I do not expect MadMax. But, world war? Seems inevitable when you
have a situation where oil becomes more scarce. We already fought
world wars over this stuff...why not another one?
As for currency, it is a supply/demand instrument like ANY OTHER. The
USA was able to artificialize hegemony in the dollar through Bretton
Woods, but its dismantlement due to our own account DEFICITS, due to
our own Peak Oil, have made the dollar a floating instrument like any
other. And, given our government's profligacy and that of the Fed,
there is a worldwide glut of dollars. Look at housing or Nasdaq shares
in 2000. Too much supply against not enough demand = price collapse.
Economics is actually VERY simple, despite what economists say. The
aggregation of my research into economic theory seems to suggest that
economists can barely spell "economist" much less understand inflation
or market dynamics. Fundamentally heretical crap passes for theory
which is implemented by government and CBs. Jewnanke wants to actually
monetize your mortgage debt to avoid the "liquidity trap" and so-called
deflation that befell Japan. What this means is that this guy, the Fed
chief, does not even actually understand what HAPPENED in Japan.
Modern economics is about inflation, the generation of it, and the use
of it to drive supplyside capacity growth. But, the fundamental
misunderstanding by economists, and I know one who thinks of himself as
one despite only a Bachelors degree in it, is that economics alone
drive markets. They don't. Energy supply drives industrialism and
actual demand by real people doing real work do. At a low level, THAT
is what is in play. Real people doing real things.
Let's posit a situation where all industrial production is handled by
robots. K? People don't create anything, work is only service work to
serve other ppl and talk to each other. That's the ultimate "service
economy." It's fairly easy to see that wealth cannot be created here
by any of the service workers, because they shuttle money from
themselves to other servers. So, the government helicopter drops money
to them to demand industrial capacity. Fine so far, gov't can do that,
grow money supply with GDP. But, what is the FUNDAMENTAL lynchpin of
this system? Energy. Industrial capacity can only grow as energy
supply grows. Once the latter stops, the former must. Efficiency
gains cannot keep pace with the losses in supply...this is a geological
fact.
Economists, because of the uselessness of this pseudoscientifical
profession, do not take into account REALITIES. They ASSUME that
supply and demand and "the market" can overcome the laws of physics. I
have argued with such people about Peak Oil; they assume that if price
goes to infinity, supply can be grown, or even that the 2nd law of
thermodynamics can be abrogated. The problem is that these
"disciplines" grew up under a particular set of axioms; the most
important of these is that energy supply can always be grown. Once
that CHANGES, the very cornerstone of industrial society is removed.
One cannot except things to just remain the same, for the forward
growth expectations to be satisfied. Fundamental conditions change at
Peak Oil.
Trav
trav...@aol.com
> Was just reading some of Trav's doom-n-gloom financial collapse posts.
> Does anyone think he's full of shit, and that life will plod along
> pretty much as per normal for the next 60 years? If you think his
> predictions of shit-hitting-the-fan anytime sometime soon are quite
> likely (within 10 years or so is the impression I get from his posts)
> then what are you doing about it, or not? Are you buying gold with
> your savings & burying it in the backyard? Or even stocking on dried
> food, getting fullon into the survivalist thing? Emails on the matter
> are welcomed, if you'd prefer.
Hah. I'm sure lots of ppl think I'm full of shit. The problem is that
a lot of ppl fill in the blanks on what they think I mean. They think
I'm proposing universal apocalypse. I don't think WW2 was such a
thing. Life was "normal" then, no? Argentina...ppl still eat and
sleep and shit there, right? Ppl survived, as they do. In the last 20
years, there've been several major financial collapses...nobody
remembers the USSR? I mean, hell, it was a cold war superpower, a
major empire. Gone overnight. Ruble made worthless. People survived
and all that. Lots died too, tho.
If there's madmax, the food you have stockpiled and your survivalist
skills won't matter, luck will. Luck is disease resistance and shit
like that.
> I for one am still renting, not even paying off a mortgage yet, so I
> guess if what he predicts will happen, then we'll have to move 'back
> home' to live with the wife's parents. Ummm ... develop a permaculture
> garden in the back yard, try to get self-sufficient and whatnot. Then
> buy some guns & stockpile oil etc etc.
>
> thanks,
> Charlie
useless. Stockpiling things won't help you. As for mortgages, my
financial advise is don't expect to keep anything in a bank. Banks,
despite what ppl believe, can collapse. So can governments. So,
promises from them should be discounted. Any hard asset is good to
have, assuming it survives. Any debt may, overnight, be reduced to
worthlessness. All that matters is whether you can SERVICE it long
enough.
Suppose I owe $400,000 on a house. And, then shit goes Weimar. Within
a short period of time, $400k may buy a loaf of bread. Shit you not,
$127T (trillion) Weimarks bought a loaf of bread at the end of that
crisis; people actually wallpapered their houses w/ uncut sheets of
them. The US Confederacy saw similar hyperinflation. So, supposing I
can service my debts, at the point a loaf is $400k, I steal one and pay
my mortgage off w/ it and then I own my house outright. That is one
way inflation can help you. But, the trick is servicing your costs
during the period. Most people will be spending their entire incomes
on food and will be foreclosed upon. So, if you can get out or last
long enough, you have a chance...economic collapse like this is
last-man-standing kind of stuff. Those who have any money at the end,
get to buy all the hotels on Boardwalk.
Trav
Shuurai
trav...@aol.cominyrface wrote:
> Shuurai wrote:
> > yoko....@gmail.com wrote:
> > The thing Trav doesn't seem to understand - and I except this will draw
> > a nasty post from him with lots of capital letters - is that the other
> > major financial powers in the world have a serious interest in keeping
> > us afloat. If our economy goes down the toilet, a lot of others will
> > follow.
>
> Well, you "except" right, motherfucker...and HERE'S WHY.
Oooohhh... you got me on a typo. I'm so ashamed.
Relax, bitch. It's just fun to see you get all uppity about this shit.
Btw, Peak Oil is a fking myth.
Don Geddis
> Suppose I owe $400,000 on a house. And, then shit goes Weimar. Within
> a short period of time, $400k may buy a loaf of bread.
You've made a lot of complaints that the US (the country and the individual
consumers) are carrying far too much debt.
But if we really believed you, surely the right choice now is to acquire
EVEN MORE debt? After all, mortgage rates are still historically low, and
meanwhile you believe that the dollars we'll pay off with in 30 years will
be basically worthless.
So we should all be buying stuff on credit right now, shouldn't we?
> That is one way inflation can help you. But, the trick is servicing your
> costs during the period. Most people will be spending their entire incomes
> on food and will be foreclosed upon.
Ok, so you have to plan around this danger. You do need to keep going long
enough for your massive debt to become worthless.
But it sounds like the odds are with you, aren't they? Your debt stays fixed
in dollars, at a given interest rate. That value collapses (according to your
theory). But day-by-day, you can sell your working hours for whatever the
going rate is. So surely your real income in relation to your fixed debt
ought to continue to grow.
> So, if you can get out or last long enough, you have a chance...
More than "having a chance", it seems like this ought to be the route that
you plan on.
(According to your theories) we should all be exchanging additional debt for
real assets (houses, gold, etc.). No?
-- Don
_______________________________________________________________________________
Don Geddis webm...@bjj.org http://bjj.org/
I bet when they weren't fighting, Vikings with horn helmets had to stick
potatoes on the ends of the horns, so as to avoid eye pokings to fellow Vikings
and lady Vikings. -- Deep Thoughts, by Jack Handey