So how high will prices have to go...

[matthess]

So how high will prices have to go before people start making a second
run at these titles? At 15k for a MM or even 11k for a AFM, there has
got to be money to be made here. How much in parts are there in these
games- and I don't mean retail, I'm talking wholesale prices in lots
of 100-200 units. Maybe 5k? It shouldn't take over a 1k to put each
together and now you have a 6k cost machine that's retailing for 2-3x
that amount. Would you rather have a used AFM/MM or a brand spanking
new, and I mean everything new, for the same price? This, I think, is
where the rubber will meet the road on prices. It also seems that
once things are cooking, and you have the parts you can make runs of
any era- If you reproduced early 80's bally parts you can make a run
of those too; 100-200 each of Centaur, Medusa and EBD and maybe a
boutique run of 50 for Embryon and Skateball. They wouldn't go five
figures, but for brand new stuff they could command a premium. But, I
could be totally wrong.

[Mike Schudel]

"matthess" <matt...@gmail.com> wrote in message...

First obstacle you are going to run into is that there are people out there
that hold licensing of parts, intellectual property and titles. You are
going to have a long legal uphill battle to allow these to even get going.
Even if you can get the go ahead to do so, it's harder than you think to get
the ball rolling on producing thousands of parts, etc. Look at the MM
debacle. So far none have been built AFAIK. Ask Gene about BBB. Although
he wants to do KP, I don't see him running out to do Airborne or BreakShot
or Flipper Football or...

There is a guy that made his own MM from parts. You could go that route for
a machine for yourself.

--
Mike S.
Kalamazoo, MI
Gameroom: http://tinyurl.com/yxzavc
W C S Owner's List: http://tinyurl.com/8ua2n
Gameroom Video: http://tinyurl.com/y8vmz6k

[Pinwizman]

The “A” list games have already gotten too high for me. I buy the “B” &
“C” list games. Most of them are just as fun to play with out breaking
the bank. A second run on some of the nice early Bally machines would be
nice, however I think the re-make cost would be high.

Rob H.


--
Pinwizman
This USENET post sent from http://rgparchive.com

[matthess]

Well I guess I was looking at the guy with the licences, or access to
them anyway. And I wasn't talking all titles- just higher end.
Nobody is going to be reproducing lucky ace. And double the price
Gene was asking for BBB and would that have made things go a little
more smoothly?

[seymour.shabow]

Pinwizman wrote:
> The “A” list games have already gotten too high for me. I buy the “B” &
> “C” list games. Most of them are just as fun to play with out breaking
> the bank. A second run on some of the nice early Bally machines would be
> nice, however I think the re-make cost would be high.
>
> Rob H.
>
>

Sell it as a kit. You get a blueprint that you tack to a plywood piece
and build your own wiring harness. You get all the parts in bags. You
supply the cabinet/electronics/displays.

That's the only real way to get something like this rolling, and even
then, you have to produce the metal ball guides and any hard to find mechs.

Easier to just find someone selling one.....

[Ry]

To add to this.....I was thinking the same thing when I seen the one
post about the MM whiteboard being sold on ebay. The pictures showed
that there were numerous playfields made and it would appear someone
is going to reproduce the MM playfield. Also you look at several
machines that are selling for 4k and up that someone would look into
reproducing these machines since the demand is there. Obviously
licensing could be an issue on some but look at CPR and notice that
they have reproduced titles such as Playboy, Playboy Anniversary,
Flash, Power Play (in the works), Star Trek (to name a few) which all
include licensing. Look at the machines that are bringing in the big
money right now, most of them dont have a theme to them that would
require special licensing. Along with this we have more people
starting to produce machines (JJP, Stern, Marsplay, Retro etc) which
is a big change from a few years ago when we had Stern!

I would like a new TSPP so I sent an email to Stern asking if they had
any intentions of making another run of this machine, as they have
done several runs already. The response was "not at this time". One
would think though with TSPP selling now for 3500 and up that Stern
would look into reproducing certain machines that are reselling on the
higher end. The one thing that comes to mind is....going out and
buying a machine for 3,5,7,10+ grand only to find out it is being
reproduced thus dropping the value of the machine.

[Lloyd Olson]

It doesn't matter how high.

I don't see anyone making a factory and with all the start up costs,
licenses, hire and train people. etc. etc.

Ever being able to sell enough units to make it worthwhile. Or they'd
already be doing it.

Even if you sell a MM for $20K, doesn't mean to could sell 1,000 repros for
$10K.

LTG :)

"matthess" <matt...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:89fe7c6b-7083-4be8...@m3g2000vbl.googlegroups.com...

[cal50]

I like that idea...

Like ordering a sand castle and getting a box of sand and a note:
"Some assembly required"


Price have gotten pretty high and it will price any potential noobs out
of the market / hobby. Once demand drops so does prices.


--
cal50

RGP Archive and posting Gateway

[Rompen]

On May 25, 1:46 pm, matthess <matthe...@gmail.com> wrote:
> So how high will prices have to go before people start making a second
> run at these titles?  At 15k for a MM or even 11k for a AFM, there has
> got to be money to be made here.

The games that sell in this range are few and far between. It's not
what I'd call a vibrant, growing market. It's more like heated
competition between a very small group of collectors that have a lot
of extra cash.

The efforts needed to manufacture new pinball machines are major.
Nobody in this industry is making a ton of money, in fact most are
probably not even breaking even. And to reproduce an old game like MM
would require obtaining licenses from people who are exploiting the
fact that parts are scarce and they can charge high prices.

[Joe Grenuk]

Interesting post...

I would guess the answer would be in your $5000 range.

Best indication is that if JJP can build games and sell them for
$6-7,000 and make a profit, and if Stern can sell games for whatever
Stern sells them for nowadays and make a profit, then, there's your
number. All the Sterns and JJP have licensing costs in them, and for
MM and AFM, there aren't any 3rd party people to deal with on the
license besides W/B. And AFM is one of the simplest games in terms of
toys and other costly things....no wireforms, only 2 flippers, 3 pops,
2 slings, 1 vuk, though it does have 8 martians and lots of pretty
inserts ;)

I know that is simplistic, but it's hard to argue with...not that it
will stop any of you from arguing with it :)

Joe

[Rare Hero]

On May 25, 11:46 am, matthess <matthe...@gmail.com> wrote:
> So how high will prices have to go before people start making a second
> run at these titles?

If there was only an Australian who could handle the task.... ;)

Greg

[seymour.shabow]

cal50 wrote:
>
> Like ordering a sand castle and getting a box of sand and a note:
> "Some assembly required"
>

Yeah, that sounds about right. It would really be the only way it could
get done reasonably though - yes, Centaur is a high demand game, but is
someone REALLY gonna pay $5k+ for a new one to make it worth the while
of the people putting them together? Or any of those other games.....
King of Diamonds IS a retro game and it's not super cheap either,
despite cost saving measures on it.

>
> Price have gotten pretty high and it will price any potential noobs out
> of the market / hobby. Once demand drops so does prices.
>

I think it's the noobs PAYING the high prices.

[NM]

seymour.shabow;1945940 Wrote:
> cal50 wrote:[color=blue]

>
> I think it's the noobs PAYING the high prices.

Exactly.

My pure guess is that prices on the A-titles may have peaked now (or
shortly from now).

I could be dead wrong, but I'm basing this forcast on macro reasons such
as Stern building games like the ACDC LEs & Premiums (and TRON LEs) that
no-one would have imagined possible a few short years ago--plus all the
great stuff to come from JJP...plus the possible influence of LCDs.

I've noted, 5 CVs have come up FS in the last few days (3 simultaneously
on Mr. Pinball alone in the last week--albeit for high asking prices
that will probably have to come down).

What that's telling me is we might be finally witnessing a sea
change--namely, of long-time A-title owners (who are out of space)
finally selling their games to fund the new titles.

Also, I think many hobbyists are finally saying why buy a 17-year old
machine (in need of a lot of money needed to be spent on deferred
maintenance and restoration) for more money than just buying a NIB ACDC
Premium (for example) for "only" $5800.

My two cents.


--
NM

Current: AFM, CFTBL, HUO FGY, MB, NGG, HUO SM, SS, STTNG, TAF, ToM, TRON
LE, TSPP, TZ, WH2O, W?D, '54 Gottlieb Stage Coach.

[John in WI]

Really? I think there's plenty of RGPers speculating they'll go even higher.

[seymour.shabow]

That's pretty risky, regardless of what's happened in the past. There
is a ceiling we just don't know what it is yet. You don't have a lot of
room on a $15,000 MM for instance if the ceiling turns out to be $16k.

[Chippewa-Pin]

> Best indication is that if JJP can build games and sell them for
> $6-7,000 and make a profit, and if Stern can sell games for whatever
> Stern sells them for nowadays and make a profit, then, there's your
> number. All the Sterns and JJP have licensing costs in them, and for
> MM and AFM, there aren't any 3rd party people to deal with on the
> license besides W/B.

If JJP announced they were taking deposits on a remake of MM for
$6-7k, I would be first in line. I could only imagine what he'd dream
up for an LE version!!

Rob

[EZ SLEEZE E]

If Wayne drops the MM's on the market the price will hold steady, he
has what 15 games for sale? They'll be $10k+. Supply and demand, look
and BBB. Great game but really $!5K to $20k?? People are buying.

[MXV]

Everyone with their calculations and speculation on how much it would
cost to make a run of a couple hundred games doesn't realize all the
tooling/molds, etc. are not readily available for every part to every
game. In many cases that stuff is long gone and the cost of new
tooling, molds, etc is extremely high.

[Doriguin]

Even making mods adds up to almost being a waste of time unless you mass
produce a large variety and have a following. I gave up on that and
switched to making wire sculptures and jewelry for the Etsy market.
That's been paying for my collection expansion recently.


--
Doriguin

[metallik]

> license besides W/B. And AFM is one of the simplest games in terms of
> toys and other costly things....no wireforms, only 2 flippers, 3 pops,
> 2 slings, 1 vuk, though it does have 8 martians and lots of pretty
> inserts ;)

It has two wireforms (left and right ramp returns). Also has the
saucer assembly with solenoid, bracket and internal custom PCB, along
with the strobe PCB/assy on the backboard (and strobelight itself
under saucer). It only has 4 martians (are we discussing the same
machine? :) but each has a solenoid and bracket assy as well. 3
plastic ramps. Overall it's probably one of the cheaper WPC95 games
in terms of BOM, but don't let the open playfield fool you into
thinking there's nothing there..

[Don Cummins]

Seeing as Williams is no longer in the Pinball business, it's a pretty
safe bet that you won't see any recreations of the table. I doubt there
would be enough pressure from collectors to get them to sell their most
popular table to anyone to recreate, and surely not enough collectors to
cause them to get back in the game and make the table themselves.

If there is a silver lining, it should be the knowledge that if you did
go out and buy one today even at what might seem an inflated price, you
could almost be sure that it will sell for more in the future. Scarcity
is suprisingly predictable that way :)


--
Don Cummins

[Detroitboy]

If its because the "noobs" are paying high prices its only because the
"old timers" and dealers are demanding those high prices. Everybody
keeps blaming the new people to the hobby for the prices going up.
Well...what are they supposed to do when the only games available are
priced sky high by the dealers who advertise on Ebay and the rest of us
that own the games? Once a current game owner sees what his game sold
for on Ebay he jacks up the price on his game and sells it in a market
which has no shortage of buyers and attempts to get that same price as
someone else got on Ebay.

I'm only responding to this post because I'm really getting tired of
everybody slamming the "noobs" for the current prices (I am not a noob).
Its not their fault...its the prices being set by the
dealers/flippers/resellers that have been in our own hobby for years.
And every one of us is just as guilty of asking high prices. After
all...if your game is selling for $5000 now, but only $4000 last year
when you bought it why would you sell it for $4000?

The new people coming into our hobby are the future of it. And like it
or not its a simple matter of supply and demand. We have all been
working hard to get new people interested in our hobby so that it would
not die. We've been having "kids" tournaments etc for that purpose and
having pinball shows. So now that we have been successful in that
endeavor many people in the hobby are bitching and complaining that the
"noobs" have jacked up the prices of games in the marketplace.

I believe the proper wording for this is something along the lines of
"we have found the enemy and it is us".

So lets quit slamming the new people that we have encouraged to come
into our hobby. We wanted them, we invited them, and we are selling our
games to them for more than what we paid for them. So we now have more
money to buy other games with. For "us" it all works out in the end.
If the prices of used games climb high enough new people will buy them
anyway....they will simply buy the new games. Many of our fellow
pinheads have been making a ton of money restoring older games and
selling them to the new people. So who is the bad guy here?

Lets change our attitude on these sites and welcome the new people
aboard and make them feel comfortable. We certainly worked hard enough
to get them here.


--
Detroitboy

There's no way I pushed that game hard enough to tilt

[KenH]

> First obstacle you are going to run into is that there are people out there
> that hold licensing of parts, intellectual property and titles.  You are

True, I think the only version of reality you could see on this, is
Stern re-releasing one of its own earlier games again, for example,
since they would already have most or all of the licensing for
it...although I'm not sure how they'd determine that they could sell
another XXX units of YYY to make the decision to re-release
something. But didn't they do that with LOTR or something?

[G]

Who is going to be the first contract Chinese manufactured machine to
hit the sub 3k market? It might not have all the bells and whistles
but will be fun and tie into some part of pop culture. Inexpensive
pinball revival. It could happen.

[seymour.shabow]

Detroitboy wrote:
>> I think it's the noobs PAYING the high prices.
>
> If its because the "noobs" are paying high prices its only because the
> "old timers" and dealers are demanding those high prices. Everybody
> keeps blaming the new people to the hobby for the prices going up.
> Well...what are they supposed to do when the only games available are
> priced sky high by the dealers who advertise on Ebay and the rest of us
> that own the games? Once a current game owner sees what his game sold
> for on Ebay he jacks up the price on his game and sells it in a market
> which has no shortage of buyers and attempts to get that same price as
> someone else got on Ebay.
>
> I'm only responding to this post because I'm really getting tired of
> everybody slamming the "noobs" for the current prices (I am not a noob).
> Its not their fault...its the prices being set by the
> dealers/flippers/resellers that have been in our own hobby for years.
> And every one of us is just as guilty of asking high prices. After
> all...if your game is selling for $5000 now, but only $4000 last year
> when you bought it why would you sell it for $4000?
>

OK, if it'll make you happy..... ANYONE paying the higher prices is
responsible. Including me, I paid market for a project AFM. As
someone pointed out to me, since I'm replacing every part of it that I
can, I just paid $5k for a wiring harness, a boardset, and some hardware.

If there was no one willing to pay the high prices..... the stuff would
never sell and go down in price. Obviously we're not at that point
yet.... BUT the people that haven't been around for a long time so do
not have a historical feel for the prices ARE at fault unless they
educate themselves as to what a more realistic price would be.

People that continuously bitch about the prices of things are assholes,
anyway. High or low. It's a hobby, it's SUPPOSED to be a money suck.
Too many people treat it as a business/investment.

[Detroitboy]

Don't worry..you are not responsible. None of us are. Its just a
market law of supply and demand.

I was simply trying to make a pitch for people to quit "blaming" the new
enthusiasts for current games going up in value/cost. The newbies could
make a case in the opposite if they so choose and claim they are being
price raped by those of us that own games and are selling them at
inflated prices. So why start a war?

The market is what the market is....so people should quit blaming the
newbies for the prices. If they quit buying everybody would be whining
that their games crashed in value. What does it take for people to
understand that markets prices for luxury/collector items fluctuate? If
anyone wants to affix blame to something that negatively affects the
cost of their hobby blame it on the economy....not the new enthusiasts
that we begged for so long.

[seymour.shabow]

Detroitboy wrote:
>
> The market is what the market is....so people should quit blaming the
> newbies for the prices. If they quit buying everybody would be whining
> that their games crashed in value.

Exactly.... which is why I said that people that constantly worry about
their games' worth and that's pretty much all they want to talk
about..... assholes.

[Frank Furhter]

The cost of producing a pinball machine is beyond the average dipshit's
comprehension, let alone those that try and fail (jpoop and BH, Gene
[financially], and others to follow.)

[hobbypinball]

I fail to see why anyone thinks it would cost more to repro a MM vs
designing from scratch any new game. Secure the rights and ALL the a and
d work is complete as is design all of it is done except for
manufacturing. What is really the cost of the manufacturing? I would
think it's insignificant compared to the rest. Aside from that you've
got a known theme. Tell me who would not pay even 7k for a bnib MM? I'd
be first in line.

Imo what will drive down price and further increase price of b and c
titles is the simple realization that any ONE game cannot hold a players
interest forever. As collectors come to that realization you'll see the
guys give up their 15k MM for 5 3k machines bt that will drive up the
demand for the 3k machines and the price will creep up on those. The
only thing that will truly kill the used market would be a complete
disappearance of parts or skill to repair them. MM isn't so much fun to
just sit and look at. More fun to play a wheel of fortune vs staring at
a non working MM.


--
hobbypinball

[Pinballed]

the 'kit' idea made the most sense so far. I hate hearing about the
costs of the factory, employees blah blah blah...that's OLD ways of
thinking. Time to put that to rest already. I could assemble a kit, I
know lots of RGPers here could too. where there's a will there's a way

[hobbypinball]

[hobbypinball]

Not sure why it double posted me. Anyway another thought on cost. You've
secured the rights to MM or it and 5 other a list games. Have everything
except manufacturing and assembly- why incur the costs of assembling it
here. Do it offshore.

[Zton]

No thanks on the reproduction. Something about a reproduction that just isn't the same. Not that I wouldn't play it, but the nostalgia and the art is lost for me.

[taylor34]

The kit idea is probably the best way. They make kit airplanes and
kit cars, kit pinball would be easy compared to those. :) Most of
the parts on the major games are already reproduced anyways, it's the
wire harness and metal guides that are the main things that are
missing (along with reproduction boards).

[Frank Furhter]

Nobody in their right mind, or left would try and do a wiring harness at
home. One would along with the kit have to produce a complete wiring
board and then pretend to get it right repeatedly. Talk to someone that
has built a pinball machine by hand, and get back with us on how great
an idea kit pinball machines will be on the market (after a dozen or so
complete fuck ups occur/buy into the idea.)

[G]

Well said Scott. It's a hobby.

[James Lewis]

hobbypinball;1949094 Wrote:
> Not sure why it double posted me. Anyway another thought on cost. You've
> secured the rights to MM or it and 5 other a list games. Have everything
> except manufacturing and assembly- why incur the costs of assembling it
> here. Do it offshore.

Because outsourcing jobs hurts Your country.


--
James Lewis

[hobbypinball]

James Lewis;1949243 Wrote:
> Because outsourcing jobs hurts Your country.

Not debating that - debating the cost to manufacture a re-run. But
interesting point - how many here would "refuse" a pinball manufactured
in China if it either meant you could get a sought after A title or new
game at 1/3 to 1/2 current asking prices. I'm not saying thats good or
bad - just curious.


--
hobbypinball

[seymour.shabow]

hobbypinball wrote:
> James Lewis;1949243 Wrote:
>> Because outsourcing jobs hurts Your country.
>
> Not debating that - debating the cost to manufacture a re-run. But
> interesting point - how many here would "refuse" a pinball manufactured
> in China if it either meant you could get a sought after A title or new
> game at 1/3 to 1/2 current asking prices. I'm not saying thats good or
> bad - just curious.
>
>

They'd have to ship a ton of them to make any cost savings you'd get
worthwhile.

Best off doing something like what Retropinball does, get subassemblies
done overseas and final assembly/testing in the US.

[G]

James:

Ask yourself that same question when you purchase and iphone or iPad.

[wayout440]

What about something like this PinKit control system instead of a full
blown wiring harness?

http://www.planetimming.com/PinKit/PinKit_playfield_wiring.html


--
wayout440

[seymour.shabow]

wayout440 wrote:
> What about something like this PinKit control system instead of a full
> blown wiring harness?
>
> http://www.planetimming.com/PinKit/PinKit_playfield_wiring.html
>
>

Now you've got to modify the software to work with the kits.

[Rompen]

The biggest problem with the pinball market IMO is that nobody is
really doing anything more than re-hashing retro games. And as long
as people do this, the core of the market is going to be an ever-
diminishing group of people clamoring for the remaining machines that
pop up now and then, which is what is reflected in the current pricing
and availability of games.

In the heyday of pinball, every single title was produced in
quantities of 5000+ That hasn't happened in decades. And there isn't
enough money in commercial production of games unless you can sell
larger quantities. This is still essentially a boutique market,
which is why you have people like Jpop charging $10k for a game that
doesn't even exist yet and people are buying it. That's not pinball.
Those are trophies.

It will be interesting to watch JJP because he's gearing up like a
bona fide pinball manufacturer and putting a lot of resources into
R&D, patents and is looking like he is in it for more than just one
game. But will the production figures of WOZ break 2k? 3k? And if
he makes a second game, will he be able to sell more than the first?
In modern industry, it's all about growth and it's arguable if
anybody's business is growing that much. What are the production
figures of the last 5 Stern titles compared to the previous 5? Anyone
know?

The only way I see the market turning around is if manufacturers start
to innovate and do new and amazing things nobody else has seen. P3 is
on the right track like P2K was a decade ago, but those guys don't
have enough resources or interest to pursue that project full time --
another sign that this market is not growing. Maybe someone can
manage to put out a game that redefines the industry and things will
change? If they do, I fully-expect at least half of RGP to hate such
a game with a passion, but that's what's necessary.. a new type of
pinball game will need to come out that appeals to new, younger people
who aren't satisfied with magnets and articulated Wal-Mart toys as
"state-of-the-art."

[Pinballed]

>
> Nobody in their right mind, or left would try and do a wiring harness at
> home.  One would along with the kit have to produce a complete wiring
> board and then pretend to get it right repeatedly.  Talk to someone that
> has built a pinball machine by hand, and get back with us on how great
> an idea kit pinball machines will be on the market (after a dozen or so
> complete fuck ups occur/buy into the idea.)

you just nailed it...nobody in their right mind...which excludes just
about everyone on RGP! Including me. If I were in my right mind, I
wouldnt be in this hobby! And the deal with kits you have to use some
ingenuity...some imagination.

Obviously...well, to me anyways, not to some as it appears...there
would have to be innovations. And lots of connectors. SO instead of
one monster wiring harness which has no reason to be anything
otherwise stapled to the underside of a pf as it is now because they
are mass produced that way...could be transformed into something like
this: That monster wiring harness is just a pile of lesser
groupings...for starters, so we break that up. Seperate harness for
GI, for playfield lights/inserts. GIs and playfield lights could be
sectioned off in groups depending on location, say, like on TSPP for
example...all right side GI's from Itchy Scratchy targets southwards,
theres GI's inder the slings, on the side,

spotlight, beside the flipper. So thats one colour coded
connector...keep it small. That would have the ground and the leads so
they could goto the individual sockets, which for GI's could have
slip on tabs like some switches already use, something similar, a few
more connectors and theres the GI's. Same for inserts. Section off in
the same way for coils. And insert lighting is easy. They alreasy use
pop in sockets that screw to the pf, bare wire ends that slide
in...done. Same thing for switches with tabs...cleverly have
strategicly places holders under the playfield so the wiring harnesses
can be tucked away so its not a nightmare. And have movable sleeves
that go from the connector to closer to where the wires veer off in
different directions so you can choke up a bit and also tame the
wires.

Like I already said. We need NEW ways of thinking. Enough OLD
thinking. Thats just a little bit of thought put into this. You
telling me someone cant think of a better way to do things? Stop
thinking about what you already know and think of something BETTER.
The rest of pinball assembly most of us are well experienced at by
now.

Until someone has a better idea, I say kits are the way to go. You do
realise you have to prepare the kit, otherwise you may as well hand
someone the internet and say...go build a pinball machine. So you'd
have to have playfields with artwork on them already, holes cut. So
essentially, premade playfields. If yer going that far and are worried
about wiring messes, so staple in the ground for the GI's then,
whatever. Its not like this is gonna be free. You're going to have to
get wiring harnesses made too. But remember...you're not thinking one
massive stupid airing harness. You're assembling smaller groups with
connectors. You include the head and cab pieces, disassembled, of
course. You either have the head and cab art already on, or include
the art to be applied. Everything else is as logic would dictate.

Its not the assembly that is the stumbling block...its what titles can
you make?