Play 6NT at Pairs (not vul)
Will in New Haven
ATXX - KX - AKQJ - QJX
You have:
KQ - QJTX - XXX - ATXX
Your opponents have heard you open a 10-13 HCP 1NT, show your Hearts
and your Clubs in a Forcing Stayman auction and accept a slam try in
NT.
LHO is a very good player and he leads the Ace of Hearts, RHO follows
with a low spot, and another Heart to the King, RHO following up the
line.
Before you have any real decision to make, you can unblock the KQ of
Spades (both follow up the line) and play two more Heart winners,
throwing the QJ of Clubs. RHO throws a Diamond on the fourth round.
You play to the Diamonds and try the Ace of Spades, both follow but
the Jack doesn't drop. When you play a second round of Diamonds, LHO
discards a Club.
--
Will in New Haven
Tim DeLaney
Black suit squeeze or club finesse? Naturally, we cash the remaining
diamonds and perforce lead a club. RHO follows, and I must be missing
something because I don't see anything except the vexing squeeze-
finesse guess.
If LHO started with Jxxx Axxx x Kxxx, he would know that he posessed
all the assets of the defense, and would never contemplate a club
lead. But if he had Jxxx Axxx x xxxx, he might have led a club. This
would favor playing for the squeeze, and that's my choice.
Tim
Charles Brenner
Ignoring inferences from the way the opponents have defended, just
from the distributional information that has turned up:
LHO is a strong favorite to hold each black honor -- 70+%.
On that basis the finesse is under 30% and the squeeze is nearly 50%.
Beyond that, Tim's comments about the significance of the lead may tip
the odds even further toward a squeeze. Some players religiously lead
aces against matchpoint slams, but there's at least a chance that this
opponent isn't one of them.
Charles
Charles Brenner
It even simpler than that. We may as well assume that we cash all side
winners, lead a club from dummy, and RHO follows small -- otherwise
there is no decision. That leaves only three relevant hands for LHO:
These two hands are equally likely (same spot distribution, black
honors interchangable)
xxx, Axxx, x, Kxxxx 25% chance hand can't be made
Jxxx,Axxx, x, xxxx 25% chance the finesse works
This hand is more probable (club spots distributed 3=2 rather than
4=1):
Jxxx,Axxx, x, Kxxx 50% chance the squeeze works.
Bill Jacobs
5bc5-4751-91c...@l13g2000yqb.googlegroups.com:
One can assume LHO has spade jack. If RHO has it, there's nothing to the
play.
It seems clear to go for the squeeze, for three reasons:
1. With the implied 4414 shape with LHO, it's a priori 2-to-1 that he holds
the club king.
2. Prefer to go 1 down at matchpoints rather than 2 down if taking a losing
line.
3. Squeezes are more fun than finesses.
Cheers ... Bill
Andrew
LHO started with one of these three club holdings.
* xxxx
* Kxxxx
* Kxxx
a club lead from xxxx is a great way to pick off partner's Qx or Qxx
of clubs and offers few chances to establish or cash a trick. IMO, it
is an unattractive lead. Further, holding 4-small clubs and a stiff
diamond opening leader will be nervous that his heart ace could
disappear. Thus the HA is a much more appealing choice than a club in
that scenario.
A club lead from the king is also dangerous--you could pickoff
partner's Jx--and is probably pointless. However, there is at least a
clear winning scenario: catch your partner with the queen and
establish two tricks before the HA is knocked out. Perhaps the 6NT
call was based on a long diamond suit and there is room for partner to
hold the club queen. Further, holding the club king there is less
imperative to cash the HA on the go since it is now quite unlikely the
HA could vanish. LHO might therefore try a more passive lead (the
small D) or a small heart (a tricky move hoping dummy has the HK and
partner the HQ).
So in my view, the lead of the HA significantly *increases* the chance
it is right to finesse. Does it increase it enough to overcome the 2-
to-1 odds (a priori) in favor of the squeeze that Charles identifies?
Doubtful. But it does shift them back towards finesse.
Andrew
Will in New Haven
I thought the lead of the Ace of my known four-card suit would be
horribly dangerous if he _weren't_ looking at all of their honor-
cards. Knowing that his partner's two or three spot cards are
disappearing under our honor cars makes the lead from A432 type
holdings much more attractive.
Since we seem have bid the hand on point count, thinking he could hit
partner with a Queen when he's looking at seven points of his own
seems awfully optimistic. I don't think anyone is going to underlead
the King of Clubs against 6NT with that holding. Certainly if he holds
the Spade Jack he would know not to play his partner for any high
cards.
Charles Brenner
> Will in New Haven <bill.re...@taylorandfrancis.com> wrote in news:9fbe2323-
> 5bc5-4751-91c0-20e45a76b...@l13g2000yqb.googlegroups.com:
>
>
>
> > Dummy is:
> > ATXX - KX - AKQJ - QJX
>
> > You have:
> > KQ - QJTX - XXX - ATXX
>
> > Your opponents have heard you open a 10-13 HCP 1NT, show your Hearts
> > and your Clubs in a Forcing Stayman auction and accept a slam try in
> > NT.
>
> > LHO is a very good player and he leads the Ace of Hearts, RHO follows
> > with a low spot, and another Heart to the King, RHO following up the
> > line.
>
> > Before you have any real decision to make, you can unblock the KQ of
> > Spades (both follow up the line) and play two more Heart winners,
> > throwing the QJ of Clubs. RHO throws a Diamond on the fourth round.
>
> > You play to the Diamonds and try the Ace of Spades, both follow but
> > the Jack doesn't drop. When you play a second round of Diamonds, LHO
> > discards a Club.
>
> > --
> > Will in New Haven
>
> One can assume LHO has spade jack. If RHO has it, there's nothing to the
> play.
>
> It seems clear to go for the squeeze, for three reasons:
>
> 1. With the implied 4414 shape with LHO, it's a priori 2-to-1 that he holds
> the club king.
Brilliant analysis Bill. This is a really nice way to look at it.
Charles
Eric Leong
Finessing loses when LHO has both the club king and the spade jack.
However, it gains when the finesse is on which only requires one thing
to happen. Another consideration is LHO's lead of the heart ace. This
suggests he is taking insurance against declarer taking 13 tricks
otherwise. Further, if LHO had S Jxxx H Axxx D x C Kxxx he has
less reason to cash the ace since 13 tricks are less likely to be
cashed. At least LHO would probably think more about the lead than
lead the heart ace so promptly. Consequent, with no other table clues,
I would opt to take the finesse.
Eric Leong
rhm
Quote
Some players religiously lead aces against matchpoint slams, but
there's at least a chance that this
opponent isn't one of them.
End-quote
There is a huge difference between notrump and suit slams and a
supposedly good player should know this.
I do not know of any expert, who recommends indiscriminate ace leads
against 6NT as a clever idea, whether matchpoints or not.
Suit slams, usually bid with fewer HCP, often have enough tricks, once
declarer is in control.
Leading an ace, may allow you to give partner a ruff, cash two tricks
in the suit, or lets you make a switch, for example to attack a vital
entry.
Leading an ace is about control by keeping the lead.
Last, but not least at matchpoints, it may avoid the overtrick and
quite a few pairs may be in 6NT.
The main disadvantage that an ace lead may give declarer an additional
trick matters only if that would have been his 12th trick.
Notrump slams are rarely about control, they are about tricks, unless
opponents have shown long suits in the bidding. (An immediate ace ask
may be indicative of that)
They are usually based on HCP and the fight is about where to find 12
tricks without giving the defense two first, like here. This is by far
the most common problem in 6NT. Just think about the 6NT contracts you
have played recently and what your problem was and why 4-4 fits are
often superior to 6NT. The answer is simple; because 4-4 fits give you
an additional trick. The 33 HCP yardstick for 6NT is not based on the
fact that the defense can not cash 2 aces, but on the fact that 2
balanced hands will have a slightly better chance to take 12 tricks
than not, while with 32 HCP it is against the odds. However, it is
well known that even 33 HCP can be very unproductive in the tricks
department. (And it seems here from the bidding that dummy looked for
a 4-4 fit!)
At pairs if you have an ace in 6NT, you know you will get a poor score
if they make it, because 6NT is the highest scoring contract. You must
go all out beating it.
Now assume for example declarer is missing an ace and a king.
If you lead an ace and you find your partner with the king this was a
good lead, but only, if declarer would have had 12 tricks in the
remaining three suits. Possible, but not very likely.
But If partner has the king in another suit, 3 times more likely, you
just may have given declarer his 12th trick without having to take any
finesse.
No other lead, particularly an ace led in a suit bid by the declaring
side, is more likely to give declarer a trick than an unsupported ace
against 6NT, unless the opening leader had additional information
about the hand.
So if a good player leads an ace against 6NT, it is not the negative
inference about what he did not lead (clubs for example), which is
indicative, but the very lead, which would make me suspicious.
Play for the squeeze. The better the player, the more likely this is
your only chance.
Rainer Herrmann
Dave Flower
>
> - Show quoted text -
It seems to me that LHO's actual heart spots are significant. To lead
ace from A 9 8 7 is significantly riskier than from A 4 3 2
Dave Flower
Anton van Uitert
"Bill Jacobs" <bill....@quest.com> schreef in bericht
news:Xns9CA75946D7E7Db...@211.29.133.50...
Well done, thanks. Like Charles I was impressed by the analyses. The
argument is quite simple and if you think this, the rest is almost
trivial.
Anton
Cheers ... Bill
Rob Tamlyn
I was almost seduced by your reasoning but at the time we lead the
club from dummy RHO would have been squeezed (with both J and Kx) so
essentially the finesse needs two things to be right: that LHO has the
spade J and RHO has the K. (Or the squeeze needs only one thing to be
right since the spade J must be with LHO for us to make the hand at
this point).
Rob
Tim DeLaney
> On Oct 16, 12:14 pm, Will in New Haven
>
>
>
>
>
> <bill.re...@taylorandfrancis.com> wrote:
> > Dummy is:
> > ATXX - KX - AKQJ - QJX
>
> > You have:
> > KQ - QJTX - XXX - ATXX
>
> > Your opponents have heard you open a 10-13 HCP 1NT, show your Hearts
> > and your Clubs in a Forcing Stayman auction and accept a slam try in
> > NT.
>
> > LHO is a very good player and he leads the Ace of Hearts, RHO follows
> > with a low spot, and another Heart to the King, RHO following up the
> > line.
>
> > Before you have any real decision to make, you can unblock the KQ of
> > Spades (both follow up the line) and play two more Heart winners,
> > throwing the QJ of Clubs. RHO throws a Diamond on the fourth round.
>
> > You play to the Diamonds and try the Ace of Spades, both follow but
> > the Jack doesn't drop. When you play a second round of Diamonds, LHO
> > discards a Club.
>
> > --
> > Will in New Haven
>
> Finessing loses when LHO has both the club king and the spade jack.
> However, it gains when the finesse is on which only requires one thing
No. After we cash the red suits and lead a club, we have no choice
but to play LHO for the spade jack. If RHO has that card, we are
simply down one. This is a classic squeeze-finesse guess. In this
case, we know that LHO is the opponent with the longer club holding,
so the odds favor the squeeze.
> to happen. Another consideration is LHO's lead of the heart ace. This
> suggests he is taking insurance against declarer taking 13 tricks
> otherwise. Further, if LHO had S Jxxx H Axxx D x C Kxxx he has
> less reason to cash the ace since 13 tricks are less likely to be
The bidding does not suggest a long suit as a source of tricks in
either hand, so opening leader has little reason to worry that his HA
will go to sleep. Besides, we were not told that the game is
matchpoints.
With the above hand, LHO would surely be concerned that the lead could
give up a trick or resolve a guess. Dave Flower made a good point
about the heart spots; the OP should not be using x's to represent
spot cards in a play problem.
Tim
Eric Leong
>
> - Show quoted text -
First, we are told the game is match points. The title of the post
says: "Play 6NT art Pairs (not vul)".
Second, if in the two card end position before we know we have to
presume LHO has the spade jack then we also presume LHO has a stiff
club and RHO has a doubleton club. The odds clearly favor a finesse
for the club king. The fact, that RHO follows with a small club when
you lead a club off of dummy doesn't change the odds since you haven't
really gained any new information.
Eric Leong
Tim DeLaney
Oops, right you are. I'm not accustomed to looking at the subject
line for important information.
> Second, if in the two card end position before we know we have to
> presume LHO has the spade jack then we also presume LHO has a stiff
> club and RHO has a doubleton club. The odds clearly favor a finesse
> for the club king. The fact, that RHO follows with a small club when
> you lead a club off of dummy doesn't change the odds since you haven't
> really gained any new information.
>
> Eric Leong- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
On the second point, I believe you are quite wrong.
Look at it this way: At the moment of truth, we know that LHO started
with either 4=4=1=4 or 3=4=1=5. If he started with the latter, then he
has Kx of clubs remaining because RHO still has the SJ. Since we
cannot cope with 3=4=1=5, we assume he started with 4=4=1=4.
This means that _a priori_ the odds are 4-3 that LHO started with the
CK. Nothing has transpired to change those odds.
Tim
Tim DeLaney
Sorry, make that 4-2, not 4-3.
Tim
Richard Pavlicek
Analysis of this problem is spot on theoretically, favoring the
squeeze over the finesse, but what confounds me is why any "very
good player" would lead the HA from Jxxx Axxx x Kxxx when declarer
has shown four hearts and dummy hasn't shown a long suit. I might
lead a _low_ heart, or a diamond, or a spade (third choice) but
never the HA, basically trying to prevent declarer's fourth heart
from establishing and perhaps obligating a club finesse.
The only time I might lead the HA would be with worthless spots
(say, A7xx or worse) _and_ no other significant high card so it
would be possible for partner to have the HK. (Problem should
have given LHO's heart spots.)
Therefore, if LHO is an expert in my mind, I take the club
finesse... down two against all morons. :)
--
Richard Pavlicek
Web site: http://www.rpbridge.net
rhm
But why would you lead the HA without the CK?
Why should declarer's hearts be solid?
Could partner not have something like J10x in hearts or similar (even
Jxx might be good enough)?
Gives declarer 3 hearts tricks instead of one.
If you lead from nothing declarer gets at best a hint about the
location of honors, where he could have finessed the right way
anyway.
To me HA makes no sense, whether you have heart spots or not.
I admit, I would not lead it with the CK or not, because it is very
unlikely to go to sleep, when declarer has shown 4 cards there.
Rainer Herrmann
Richard Pavlicek
> But why would you lead the HA without the CK?
Holding Jxxx Axxx x xxxx, it's possible partner has the HK
and declarer has 12 tricks in three suits, which is the only
time the HA lead makes any sense. Like you, I might not take
that route, but _some_ experts might. Surely, _no_ expert
would lead the HA holding C Kxxx. Hence, playing for the
squeeze is playing for LHO to be a dunce.
Will in New Haven
I gave them in a later post. They were A532 or A432. Since his
partner's at most three spot cards are going to disappear under our
honor cards. I really think that lead is only attractive _only_ if he
is looking at all of their honor strength. And I still would have led
the Diamond.
Dave Flower
>
> - Show quoted text -
OK, but its still a horrid lead. Partner could well hold J x x, and
even 10 x x would present problems, to say nothing of J 10 9
Dave Flower
Charles Brenner
To be fair the question isn't whether to "lead the HA holding C Kxxx"
but rather, what to lead from precisely Jxxx, Axxx, x, Kxxx. A club
gives away the contract outright. A spade would under a slight
rearrangement of the suit. A diamond is obviously unattractive, but
more to the point it would be unthinkable from Jxxx, Axxx, x, xxxx, so
in practice it would give the show away.
If "no expert" has hit on the lead that dissuades you from taking the
winning and percentage play to make the contract, that must count for
something.
Charles
Tim DeLaney
I'm going to have another crack at this one
in the light of the comments made by Bill
Jacobs, Rainer Herrmann, Richard Pavlicek and
others, and also with the clarification that
the hearts were A532 at best.
Your summary of the auction is a bit vague,
but I will make two assumptions: First,
the slam was bid with the knowledge that
there were no long suits in either hand
(i.e. on sheer power). Second, dummy has
denied four hearts, but could have three.
We know that LHO had Jxxx Axxx x xxxx or
Jxxx Axxx x Kxxx. If the latter, he would
know that the lead of the heart ace would
lose a trick only if Partner has the heart
jack. Yes, partner's posession of the heart
ten (but no jack) could give declarer a slight
worry, but the chance of it taking a trick is exceedingly remote.
Suppose opening leader's only motive at trick
one is to avoid blowing a trick. Further
suppose that partner could have as much as a
jack. (Somewhat doubtful, but surely possible)
The lead of a black suit is too dangerous to contemplate, so LHO must
choose between the
red suits. If partner has no jack, the lead of
either red suit is likely to be perfectly safe.
So, the prudent assumption is that partner has a
red suit jack.
Is partner's presumed jack more likely to be in
hearts or in diamonds? Clearly, diamonds.
Partner has longer diamonds than hearts.
The second question is harder: Which red jack
is more likely to be pickled if we lead that suit?
Given that dummy is much the stronger hand, it
could be close.
IMHO, on closer examination the lead of the HA
from Jxxx A532 x Kxxx is not quite so bad as
many here have suggested. It may even be the
least of evils.
What would he have led from Jxxx A532 x xxxx?
It's far from clear, but the HA looks much more
dangerous here, given that partner could easily
hold the HQ, or even the QJ.
Tim
Will in New Haven
Assuming the opponents probably have more than 31 HCP when they get to
6NT via a "point-count" invitational auctions seems reasonable to me.
Looking at eight HCP, I think we can rule out a red Jack in partner's
hand. With my low Heart spots, partner's two or three Heart spots are
crushed in any casy.
Richard Pavlicek
when declarer has shown 4-4 in hearts and clubs and dummy likely
has a balanced hand, nothing is ideal; but any expert who chose
a heart would lead _low_. Even with no high cards, partner could
have T9x (or Txx with two blank honors in dummy) so declarer is
unable to test hearts (you duck again of course) to determine if
the club finesse is needed. You could hardly lose your HA given
the conditions.
In contrast with Jxxx Axxx x xxxx, declarer could have 12 tricks
without hearts (e.g., five diamonds, four clubs, three spades)
and partner might have the HK _or_ you might get squeezed for 13
if declarer has spade communication. This doesn't necessarily
make the HA lead best, but it's reasonable. Holding the CK the
HA lead is unreasonable.
Will in New Haven
Given nothing higher than the Ten in partner's hand, declarer is
always double-dummy cold for three tricks. I think just letting him
HAVE the three tricks he will always make is much safer than leading
that Ace when partner could have a higher card. I see that declarer
can't KNOW this in many cases and the lead seems much more like a safe
lead to Declarer when he is looking at QJTX opposite KX but I thought
he was looking for a safe lead and had all of their honor strength.
And he _was_ looking for a safe lead and had all of their honor
strength.
Since there have been some analysts who say I shouldn't think of him
as a good player if the squeeze was better I'm not going to say who he
was.
Tim DeLaney
I think it's easy to imagine that both have stretched
based on good intermediates. For example:
AQT5
K7
AKT9
QJ5
K9
QJT9
Q84
AT83
When you use x's in a play problem, the reader is
entitled to assume that they are the equivalent of
deuces. So this scenario is perfectly plausible.
Tim
Dave Flower
Not so simple:
x x x
K Q J 9
Declarer plays twice towards KQJ9, all following low. It is now far
from safe to play a third heart.
Or,
J 9
K Q 5 4
where the lead of the ace costs a clear trick.
Dave Flower
Tim DeLaney
True enough, but if you accept the idea
that a diamond lead could cost a trick,
what is left?
>
> Or,
>
> J 9
>
> K Q 5 4
>
> where the lead of the ace costs a clear trick.
This second example is not possible.
LHO has A532 or worse. Maybe 9 8
opposite K Q J 4 ?
I think the point of the OP is that LHO
is trying to find the safest lead. If
you were opening leader, what's your lead
holding Jxxx A532 x Kxxx? OK, the HA
could blow a trick, but so could any of
the other 12 cards in your hand.
What would you lead from Jxxx A532 x xxxx?
Yes, as RP suggests the HA could be right
if partner has the HK, or to avoid an
overtrick squeeze, but there are lots of
ways it could go wrong.
Tim
Dave Flower
If partner has the H10, declarer may be double dummy cold for three
tricks some of the time, but not all the time:
. . . . . K 9
A 4 3 2 10 8 7
. . . . . . Q J 6 5
Dave Flower
Eric Leong
From Jxxx, Axxx, x, Kxxx, 8 hcp, I don't expect partner to hold a
diamond honor so I would lead a diamond.
Eric Leong
Eric Leong
Andrew
<bill.re...@taylorandfrancis.com> wrote:
> On Oct 16, 6:33 pm, Andrew <agump...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > > On Oct 16, 3:14 pm, Will in New Haven
>
> > > <bill.re...@taylorandfrancis.com> wrote:
> > > > Dummy is:
> > > > ATXX - KX - AKQJ - QJX
>
> > > > You have:
> > > > KQ - QJTX - XXX - ATXX
>
> > > > Your opponents have heard you open a 10-13 HCP 1NT, show your Hearts
> > > > and your Clubs in a Forcing Stayman auction and accept a slam try in
> > > > NT.
>
> > > > LHO is a very good player and he leads the Ace of Hearts, RHO follows
> > > > with a low spot, and another Heart to the King, RHO following up the
> > > > line.
>
> > > > Before you have any real decision to make, you can unblock the KQ of
> > > > Spades (both follow up the line) and play two more Heart winners,
> > > > throwing the QJ of Clubs. RHO throws a Diamond on the fourth round.
>
> > > > You play to the Diamonds and try the Ace of Spades, both follow but
> > > > the Jack doesn't drop. When you play a second round of Diamonds, LHO
> > > > discards a Club.
>
> > > > Will in New Haven
>
> cards.
I agree that when not holding the club king, HA is a dangerous lead.
However it has two winning cases to compensate.
1. HA could be necessary to prevent the opponents from taking 13
tricks (perhaps via heart-spade squeeze)
2. partner could have the HK.
Lacking a club card, HA might be a risk worth taking. I am not sure it
is a good risk, but I can see someone else talking themself into
trying it.
In contrast, holding the CK, the winning case for HA disappears. It is
now unlikely I need to cash the HA to stop 13 tricks and there is no
chance pard has the HK. HA is at best a neutral lead and could be a
losing lead if partner has J9x of hearts or something similar. Also
note that the fact that partner is known to be broke or nearly makes a
diamond lead safe too. So if LHO were looking for a safe lead he could
have chosen a diamond.
This suggests to me that LHO was consciously taking the risk of
blowing out the heart suit because he hoped to catch a high heart with
partner.
Andrew
Tim DeLaney
>
> - Show quoted text -
Maybe I've misunderstood you. You've
shown a case where declarer is cold for
three tricks at DD. In fact, this is
_always_ the case when opening leader
has A432 opposite T98, isn't it?
Tim
Will in New Haven
This layout is very difficult when the opening leader is looking at
both of the little spots that you are putting in declarer's hand. I
don't remember whether he had A432 or A542 or A432 but he had all the
little spots he could have.
Bill Jacobs
>
> Since there have been some analysts who say I shouldn't think of him
> as a good player if the squeeze was better I'm not going to say who he
> was.
>
Good move. To be honest, I find the reconstruction of opening leader's
motives to be a bit over the top. Some seem to say he is more likely to
have CK, others less likely.
That suggests that it might be unwise to buck the 2-to-1 odds on the
squeeze.
Cheers ... Bill
Will in New Haven
I didn't need to read his mind. He explained to partner that the
Diamond might be safe but he couldn't bring himself to lead it, which
made a Heart the only lead. I don't know why he led the Ace.
If his partner had the King of Hearts and we bid the slam on twenty-
nine HCP with two flat hands, I think he would have been surprised.
Alan Malloy
I'm not sure you understood Charles's point. Once declarer finds out you
led a diamond from Jxxx Axxx x *xxx, he will ask himself: would you lead
a diamond if * were a spot? Probably not, he will conclude, and
therefore he will play you for the king. I'm hardly an expert at
analyzing opening leads, so I won't weigh in on whether declarer would
reason that way, but why have you responded to Charles's post without
addressing (or even mentioning) the point he makes?
--
Cheers,
Alan (San Jose, California, USA)
Eric Leong
>
> - Show quoted text -
I was answering the question: "To be fair the question isn't whether
to "lead the HA holding C Kxxx"
but rather, what to lead from precisely Jxxx, Axxx, x, Kxxx."
Eric Leong
rhm
Any lead can be detrimental of course
From Jxxx A532 x Kxxx I admit you have a difficult lead and I can
understand the HA.
From Jxxx A532 x xxxx I would certainly lead a club. After all the CK
can either be finessed or not.
Opening leader can not possibly foresee the actual layout.
The point about the HA is that it combines very well with small cards
like JTx or even less to stop declarer running the suit if you do not
lead it, in which case it might cost 2 tricks.
This is not true when partner has such holdings in a suit where you
have nothing.
Playing partner for the HK in the the fear that there are 12 tricks
outside of hearts is a pipe dream in the absence of long suits. It
happens, but it is very long odds. It must be almost just as likely
that you partner holds QJ instead of the HK.
Rainer Herrmann
Charles Brenner
That was a rhetorical question. In context the meaning was "Leading a
diamond will certainly mean declarer makes the hand on this particular
occasion." Since that was in front of you Alan is right; it's a bit
odd to see you volunteer to lead a diamond and not comment on the rest
of my statement. Do you disagree? If an Eric Leong were declarer would
he successfully place the club king on the clue of a singleton lead?
Beyond that, we might agree or disagree as to whether leading a
diamond from this hand is just unlucky as the cards lie, or whether
the danger of giving away the show is predictable and in fact is
reason enough to not lead a diamond. I think it's predictable; I might
make such a lead against a thoughtless player but I wouldn't make it
against you.
Charles
Will in New Haven
But what lead _would_ get a thinking player to get it wrong, in your
opinion. We have seen several good players get it wrong on the lead of
the Heart Ace but some seem to take the inference that I did and get
it right, by which I mean it worked and not that it was correct. I
agree that the Diamond lead is likely to have the same effect,
although it is the least of evils, in my opinion. If we could _see_ KQ
tight of Spades in declarer's hand, we could lead a Spade safely. So
it is the one lead that doesn't give away the show. But partner's Nine
would probably convince declarer that J9X(xx) is on his right. So
JXXX looks like a terribly unsafe lead and, it turns out, it also
leads to making a squeeze more tempting. If JXXX is on my right, I
have a popup squeeze if the Club King is onside and the finesse cannot
work if it is offside, so the squeeze is still the right play.
6NT theoretically should have made at every table because _every_
opening lead gives away the store. However, it made much less than
half the time. I only know what was led at one other table and it was
a low Heart and declarer took the finesse in Clubs.
Andrew
When you made your decision in the play whether to finesse or squeeze,
you did need to read his mind.
> He explained to partner that the
> Diamond might be safe but he couldn't bring himself to lead it, which
> made a Heart the only lead. I don't know why he led the Ace.
I presume then that he actually held the CK. IMO, his HA lead was a
blunder.
> If his partner had the King of Hearts and we bid the slam on twenty-
> nine HCP with two flat hands, I think he would have been surprised.
I am not sure that you understood my point.
Holding the CK in his hand, *of course* he will not expect partner to
hold HK. That makes HA a stupid lead that has risk but nothing to
gain.
Not holding the CK, partner *might* hold the HK. The HA lead is still
a risk, but at least it now has a chance to gain.
Andrew
Will in New Haven
That's certainly true. However, in my experience, people work pretty
hard at finding passive leads against no-long-suit notrump slams.
Charles Brenner
The simple answer to your question is to reject the premise. With the
winning play a nominal 2:1 favorite, why should there be any magic jiu-
jitsu lead that twists the declarer's mind into a confused knot? There
may not be one. If declarer plays pure game theory, declarer will go
right. Period.
That aside, the answer would depend on declarer either not
understanding the technical percentages, or at least willing to put
enough trust in his psychological reading of the lead to overrule.
Richard Pavlicek said that the heart ace lead "from an expert" would
persuade him to finesse -- so there's one answer for you. What level
of "expert" he has in mind we don't know.
> We have seen several good players get it wrong on the lead of
> the Heart Ace but some seem to take the inference that I did and get
> it right, by which I mean it worked and not that it was correct.
Right. It gets into mind games. There is no fixed lead that is
trickiest. Whichever player has the better grasp of the other player's
mentality and can get one step ahead, that player wins.
> I agree that the Diamond lead is likely to have the same effect,
> although it is the least of evils, in my opinion. If we could _see_ KQ
> tight of Spades in declarer's hand, we could lead a Spade safely. So
> it is the one lead that doesn't give away the show.
Sure, if you could see the opponents' cards before leading, then you
could often come up with a truly diabolical lead that the declarer
would surely misinterpret. But that doesn't count.
The more I think about it the more I buy RP's low heart lead.
> But partner's Nine
> would probably convince declarer that J9X(xx) is on his right. So
> JXXX looks like a terribly unsafe lead and, it turns out, it also
> leads to making a squeeze more tempting. If JXXX is on my right, I
> have a popup squeeze if the Club King is onside and the finesse cannot
> work if it is offside, so the squeeze is still the right play.
You're saying in essence that the squeeze is "the right play" because
it is as good as anything when the pop-up situation exists and when
the hand is unmakeable. The analysis is right but the conclusion is
illogical -- any play is equally the right play in those
circumstances.
What it comes down to is Bill's point -- if the spade jack in on your
right, it doesn't matter how you play. Therefore declarer should
_assume_ the spade jack is on the left. In particular that means that
declarer "knows" that the leader has led from Jxxx.
> 6NT theoretically should have made at every table because _every_
> opening lead gives away the store.
More accurately, because the store was theirs to begin with.
> However, it made much less than half the time.
> I only know what was led at one other table and it was
> a low Heart and declarer took the finesse in Clubs.
because few declarers, maybe none, were up to the technical analysis
in real time.
Charles in Oakland
Eric Leong
>
> - Show quoted text -
Well leading a diamond is very unlikely to give away a trick
immediately.
Also, not having peeked at the opponent's cards, the cards might lay
differently where declarer simply has no choice but to finesse the
club for his 12th trick. Further, sometimes you have to make the
defense of allowing declarer every chance to be an idiot when nothing
else is better.
Eric Leong