"Michael Angelo Ravera" <
mara...@prodigy.net> wrote in message
news:25452765.357.1322262691598.JavaMail.geo-discussion-forums@prmr38...
On Friday, November 25, 2011 7:00:09 AM UTC-8, jonathan23 wrote:
> Matchpoints, all vulnerable. You are playing pretty basic 2/1, 5-card
> majors, 15-17 1NT, 20-21 2NT, artificial forcing 2C opener and weak 2s
> in the other suits. RHO deals and passes, you hold:
>
> Kx
> AQx
> AKQxxx
> Kx
>
> What do you open? Do you make a choice from multiple contenders?
Playing your system, It's too strong (by almost a king, I'd say) to open
2NT...
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I've seen good evdeince that a six-card suit at notrump is worth only a
point or so, definetely not 3. A five card suit is worth a surprisingly
small 0.4 points, according to a study of real-life results by the French
Bridge Federation.
Apparently, at notrump, stoppers are more critical than having a source of
tricks, and trying to make game with inadequate high cards just leaves you
short on stoppers most of the time. It's easy to construct obvious
exceptions, and sometimes you can bid those such as after a weak two opening
or a Gambling 3NT, but on balance it's best not to overbid notrump hands
based on long suits. However, those who treat this as a balanced 21 are
certainly underbidding IMO.
Here I expect to have 8 tricks on any lead but an unlikely diamond; partner
will raise my 2C-2x; 2NT sequence with an Ace or King, obviously, and game
will be easy. He might pass an opening 2NT bid with only 3 or 4 points. Game
may be a challenge opposite a random Q+J, but a lead from the Ace toward
either of my Kings where partner has Qxx may be enough. All in all I think
I'll make game much more often than not opposite 3 hcp, hence 2C opening. On
the other hand I'll have little play if partner passes my 2NT rebid, so no
reason to make a stronger rebid. One to one-and-half points for the diamond
suit looks about right.