On Tuesday, November 9, 2021 at 12:22:44 AM UTC+7, Douglas wrote:
> There is a Bridgewinners thread with a CommonGame oddity posted recently, and a number of comments which are so off the wall, but conventional current thought, I cannot but speak.
> The oddity commented on is nine consecutive deals where West is dealt an average of 16 HCPs.
Given 32-board sessions, the chance that any of the players will have a nine-consecutive-hand streak
with an average HCP exceeding 15.0 is over 1.13%.
This might be a once-monthly occurrence at the rate some play bridge!
(Exceeding 15.5 hcp average is about 0.38%.) And the stated result is "cherry-picked" in a sense:
one could also get unlikely results over 8 consecutive hands, or over 10 hands, and so on.
This was found simulating 2 million such sessions. I used the Fisher-Yates shuffle, and a PRNG
better than the Mersenne Twister.
BTW: Douglas, Did you get my e-mail? I asked, per your offer, for any information you might
wish to share.
Gmail @ Jamesdowallen