Hit for tempo?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-BCa--EBBa--a-b--bab-c--bA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 93 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

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Tim Chow

[Robert Zimmerman]

It doesn't seem like an awesome tempo play to me. It looks like it's setting O up to play offence of two fronts now instead of one, and X, relying on a racing lead, should hope to fight only one battle.
Bar/23 6/2
Bob

[Timothy Chow]

XG's answer to the subject line is yes. There will be a big swing if
O fails to make her bar and X manages to hit that blot. If we lift
O's blot on her bar point to her 6pt, then XG plays safe (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 7/3* eq:-0.053
Player: 47.38% (G:21.31% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 52.62% (G:14.50% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.062..-0.043) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/2 eq:-0.159 (-0.107)
Player: 44.80% (G:12.44% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 55.20% (G:9.03% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.171..-0.147) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Variant
-------

XGID=-BCa--EBBa--a-b--b-c-c--bA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X |
| O O X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 93 O: 121 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 6/2 eq:-0.139
Player: 46.03% (G:10.88% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 53.97% (G:8.19% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.148..-0.129) - [92.5%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 7/3* eq:-0.149 (-0.011)
Player: 45.41% (G:14.14% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 54.59% (G:12.80% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.160..-0.138) - [7.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Tim Chow