Murat Ali vs. XGR++ or Gnubg?

[mu...@compuplus.net]

1- I am not a troll. I am a real person that you call
can email, call or come meet in Polson, Montana.

2- I Always wanted to visit Texas.

3- I Always wanted to visit New England stated during
the fall foliage.

4- I love backgammon and would like to see it become
a more popular and amateurly challenging game (i.e.
liberated from the destructive influence of mentally
ill gamblers).

5- I would love to get any opportunity to play against
the so-called "giant" human players, for fame and/or
fortune (per the same propositions below, against bots).

6- I deem any fraction of my time-limited existance on
this planet very valuable (if not priceless).

7- Similarly, I deem everyone else's time proportionately
valuable.

8- I wouldn't mind donating some of that precious time of
mine to the good cause of bettering backgammon.

9- However, I don't expect the same from others and I
have no problem with their wanting to get paid for their
time, as a way of making a living or amassing fortune.

10- Ideally, I would like to make a trip to Texas or the
New England states coincide with participating in some
backgammon events.

11- I am willing to pay the necessary entry fees, etc.
in order to enjoy some real life competition (but only
in events where some so-called "giants" participate,
even if I am an underdog by far).

12- During such an event, I also would like to play
against backers of XGR or Gnubg for money (and fame)
under mutually accepted, controlled conditions.

13- I am willing to make a double-edged bet, on the
one hand a 50-50 bet for $5,000 that I will beat the
bot, and on the other hand bet $5,000 based on the
odds to be derived from the bot's rating of my play,
after the fact. For example, based on my ELO or PR,
if I had 20% chances of beating the bot, my $5,000
bet would have to be countered with $20,000 and the
proceeds disbursed accordingly.

14- I am not a professional gambler. I don't make a
living at gambling. I don't even need the money.

15- But I would love to, oh how I would love to shove
that "cube skill", "ELO", "PR", "rollouts", etc. up
some "giant asses"...

16- So, in short, I am affering you at least $10,000
which would be totally free money except for a few
hours of your time, during any widely public event.

17- Make some proposintion as to where, how, etc. and
let's make it happen.

MK

[michae...@gmail.com]

I don't understand all this meow-meow. Do you find it difficult to find what you want??

[Bradley K. Sherman]

<michae...@gmail.com> wrote:
> ...

>I don't understand all this meow-meow. Do you find it difficult to find
>what you want??

|

| I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get
| dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.
|
<George Bernard Shaw>

--bks

[mu...@compuplus.net]

michae...@gmail.com wrote:

> I don't understand all this meow-meow. Do you
> find it difficult to find what you want??

You don't need to try playing dumb.
Just play.
You are already dumb. ;)

MK

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Bradley K. Sherman wrote:

> <michae...@gmail.com> wrote:

>> I don't understand all this meow-meow. Do you find
>> it difficult to find what you want??

>| I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig.
>| You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.

Now he will ask you what you are oinking about... ;)

MK

[Simon Woodhead]

On 9/08/2016 10:33 PM, michae...@gmail.com wrote:

> I don't understand all this meow-meow. Do you find it difficult to find what you want??

http://www.chicagopoint.com/calendar.html

Here you go Murat, no excuse now, put your money where your mouth is
and enter one of these tournaments. The ones marked "ABT" are the ones
the big players attend.

Let us know how you do.

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Simon Woodhead wrote:

> http://www.chicagopoint.com/calendar.html

> Here you go Murat, no excuse now, put your money where
> your mouth is and enter one of these tournaments. The
> ones marked "ABT" are the ones the big players attend.

Thanks for the tip, Simon. I had occasionally considered
going to Seattle to play BG, in their local events, but
never knew they had "ABT"s there.

I lived in that area in the late 80's and it's only an 8
hour drive from here. Never been back since I moved here
from there 24 years ago. I downloaded their brochure and
I will seriusly consider going there in September.

Very convenient, as I can drive my own car and don't even
have to plan too much ahead. I may even get a chance to
reconnect with some old friends and/or relive some old
memories...

Why would I make any excuses to not do something that I
indeed want to do?

Is it already known who may be the "big players" there?
Will they periodically announce/advertise who will be
there?

I will call and inquire myself also. I appreciate your
not being so defensive and adverserial to me (not to
say that I am not understanding of others, considering
I am bluntly attacking/threatening their "beliefs"...

Which, by the way, are observably changing/evolving
because of my questionings...

But let me also remind you in a friendly way that I
would like to play with other humans, including the
"big players", just to see where I fit in the picture.
I never made any claim that I can beat the best of them.

On the other hand, I have made and I am making the claim
that I can beat the best of the BG bots.

I hope you are capable of comprehending the difference.

Playing in Seattle will cost me $100 in gas, $200 in
lodging and $50-300 (+$50??) in entry fees, all of
which I can handle.

However, I doubt that there would be any private events
where some of you would back a bot against me for money,
which would be most important to me.

Lacking that, would any human "big players" would play
against me for money, outside of the tournaments?

Let me hear you...

MK

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Simon Woodhead wrote:

> Let us know how you do.

I really would like to get a stab at a "big ass"
like stick, mochy, kazaros, or others whom I have
no idea who they may be...

If they beat me, I will let you know myself.

If I beat them, you will know about it faster
than I can let you know about it... ;)

MK

[vadim.n...@gmail.com]

Murat, why don't you come to the upcoming Seattle tournament and we can play a money session?

[Dmitriy Obukhov]

So, your claim is you can beat XG. Right? If so, why are you asking for odds? If you want to play heads up against the bot and without any odds I am sure many (including me) would gladly take you up on this offer. I am also sure if you make it to Seatle (or to any other ABT tournament) you won't have trouble finding people wanting to play you. Without odds, of course. I would play you myself, but I am not going to Seatle for that.

[Paul]

I don't think that his claim is that he can beat XG. His claim is that he can win money if he is given odds that are calculated by XG's assessment of his ER. This is actually quite plausible but so what?

Paul

[Dmitriy Obukhov]

Let me quote what he wrote ad a reply to Simon:

"On the other hand, I have made and I am making the claim
that I can beat the best of the BG bots."

Is my interpretation wrong?

[Paul]

On Thursday, August 11, 2016 at 5:16:22 PM UTC+1, Dmitriy Obukhov wrote:
> Let me quote what he wrote ad a reply to Simon:
>
> "On the other hand, I have made and I am making the claim
> that I can beat the best of the BG bots."

....

He clarified that. Suppose Murat's bot-calculated rating is X and suppose that rating means that he should be able to beat the bot 30% of the time in 13 point matches. "I can beat the best of the BG bots" means "Although the bots claimed I could win only 30% of the time, I can beat them by winning well over 30% of the time."

Paul

[Dmitriy Obukhov]

O.K. If this is what he means, then this is a bunch of nonsense. I can beat Magnus Carlsen (or a chess bot of your choice) if he spots me a knight.

[Paul]

I think that makes you quite a strong chess player -- the equivalent of about ELO 2100 or higher.

Paul

[Dmitriy Obukhov]

"Or more" is correct. Although I've been inactive.

[mu...@compuplus.net]

vadim.n...@gmail.com wrote:

> Murat, why don't you come to the upcoming Seattle
> tournament and we can play a money session?

I would like to go but as I said above, I'm not a
gambler and I'm not interested in betting money
unless it is to prove something worthwhile...

You can back a bot against me or maybe we can play
a friendly game.

MK

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Dmitriy Obukhov wrote:

> So, your claim is you can beat XG. Right? If so,
> why are you asking for odds?

Where did you get the idea that I'm asking for odds?

> If you want to play heads up against the bot and
> without any odds I am sure many (including me)
> would gladly take you up on this offer.

I offered a double-edged (two-faceted?) bet. First
is "heads up against the bot" as you put it, to give
what you folks want and an the second based on the
odds calculated after the fact, to get what I want,
which is to prove that ELO, PR, cube-skill, etc.
are nothing more than fancy/elaborate bullshit...

> I am also sure if you make it to Seatle (or to any
> other ABT tournament) you won't have trouble
> finding people wanting to play you.

I'm not a gambler or after money. I'm not interested
in playing any "Joe" for no worthwhile purpose...

MK

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Paul wrote:

> His claim is that he can win money if he is given
> odds that are calculated by XG's assessment of his
> ER. This is actually quite plausible but so what?

If the discrepancy is only a few percentage points,
I would not object to your saying "so what?".

But what is my ER suggests I should win 20% and yet
I end up winning 60%...?

You wouldn't still shrug it off saying "so what?",
would you...?

That would be a pretty damn good proof that your ER
calculations are nothing but hallucinated garbage!

So, that!!!

MK

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Paul wrote:

> He clarified that. Suppose Murat's bot-calculated
> rating is X and suppose that rating means that he
> should be able to beat the bot 30% of the time in
> 13 point matches. "I can beat the best of the BG
> bots" means "Although the bots claimed I could
> win only 30% of the time, I can beat them by
> winning well over 30% of the time."

Thanks for explaining to him. What you are saying is
correct as the "one edge" of the "double edged" bet
I proposed.

I'm not after money but it's impossible to meet any
challenge here (in the realm of the mentally ill
gamblers) anymore without betting money.

So, I split the amount I can afford to lose ($10,000)
in two. $5,000 to satisfy the ones who want me to bet
50-50 against the bot and $5,000 to satisfy my urge
to debunk all that ER, ELO, cube-skill, etc. bullshit.

Fair, no!??

MK

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Dmitriy Obukhov wrote:

> O.K. If this is what he means, then this is a bunch
> of nonsense. I can beat Magnus Carlsen (or a chess
> bot of your choice) if he spots me a knight.

Who is talking about spotting anything??

I am wanting to prove that ELO, ER, cube-skill, etc.
in backgammon are fanciful bullshits...!

Do you gutys play chess with the doubling cube?

How about ER? I now you have an ELO system in chess
but why not ER??

Because sacrificing your queen as part of a 22-move
deep strategy would not fit well in an ER formula
in chess...

With the ELO, we could do something similar in chess.

Me, having an unknown elo, I could play against a
chess bot with a known ELO.

And I could bet money that I will win more than what
my ELO to be calculated after-the-fact suggests, and
thus argue that you ELO calculations in chess are
flawed if not totally bullshit as in backgammon...!

You are too stuuuupid to understand this!

That's whay I get turned off from discussing with any
dumb asses here and start getting frustrated and
swearing...

I should quit doing this, realizing that there is no
way I can possibly insult you dumb fuckers, no matter
how hard I try...!! :(

MK

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Paul wrote:

> I think that makes you quite a strong chess player
> -- the equivalent of about ELO 2100 or higher.

And what would be his ER...?

You too, are a dumb ass Paul... :(

MK

[Tim Chow]

On Friday, August 12, 2016 at 2:44:27 AM UTC-4, mu...@compuplus.net wrote:
> Dmitriy Obukhov wrote:
>
> > So, your claim is you can beat XG. Right? If so,
> > why are you asking for odds?
>
> Where did you get the idea that I'm asking for odds?

An Elo-based bet is an odds bet.

---
Tim Chow

[Paul]

On Friday, August 12, 2016 at 8:09:20 AM UTC+1, mu...@compuplus.net wrote:
> Paul wrote:
>
> > I think that makes you quite a strong chess player
> > -- the equivalent of about ELO 2100 or higher.
>
> And what would be his ER...?

His ER would be 0.37912/sqrt(pi), but it isn't.

Paul

[Paul]

On Thursday, August 11, 2016 at 10:26:21 PM UTC+1, Dmitriy Obukhov wrote:
> "Or more" is correct. Although I've been inactive.

Ok, 2197 at your peak according to chessgames.com

Paul

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Tim Chow wrote:

> mu...@compuplus.net wrote:

>> Dmitriy Obukhov wrote:

>>> So, your claim is you can beat XG. Right? If so,
>>> why are you asking for odds?

>> Where did you get the idea that I'm asking for odds?

> An Elo-based bet is an odds bet.

This doesn't answer my question (because A- I am not
being clear, B- You are so overconfident of yourself
that you don't read carefully and undertand, C- You
just have a mental block or deficiency that you can't
understand even if I can be clear).

Let me illustrate for the children here...

If you claim/bet that you can run faster to the three
over there and win the race, it's a simple/humble bet
(i.e. 50%-50%), and if I accept your bet I have to do
so on that basis (i.e. 50%-50%).

However, if you claim/bet that you can beat me in a
race to that tree over there 8 times out of 10, you
are really making a very confident bet (i.e. 80%-20%)
and if I accept your bet I can do so on the basis of
the odds that you are offering (i.e. 80%-20%) in your
claim/bet.

Similarly, chicanos, if XGR or GNUBG assigns an ER to
me, that can be considered an expression of the odds
of it beatimg me, I don't have to ask for odds, I can
just accept the odds offered to me by XGR or GNUBG...!

Comprendes, chiwawas...???

MK

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Paul wrote:

> mu...@compuplus.net wrote:

>> Paul wrote:

>>> I think that makes you quite a strong chess player
>>> -- the equivalent of about ELO 2100 or higher.

>> And what would be his ER...?

> His ER would be 0.37912/sqrt(pi), but it isn't.

Now you are not only a dumb ass but a pathetic
dumb ass... :(

Why don't you surrender to Jesus and come over
to my side... :))

MK

[Tim Chow]

On Sunday, August 14, 2016 at 4:08:05 AM UTC-4, mu...@compuplus.net wrote:

> Tim Chow wrote:
> >> Where did you get the idea that I'm asking for odds?
>
> > An Elo-based bet is an odds bet.
>
> This doesn't answer my question

It does answer your question, because your question was not *whether you are
asking for odds* but *where Dmitriy got the idea*.

---
Tim Chow

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Tim Chow wrote:

> mu...@compuplus.net wrote:

>> Tim Chow wrote:

>>>> Where did you get the idea that I'm asking for odds?

>>> An Elo-based bet is an odds bet.

>> This doesn't answer my question

> It does answer your question, because your question
> was not *whether you are asking for odds* but *where
> Dmitriy got the idea*.

You are a low life liar scum bug! :( Just scroll up and
read my actual question to Dimitri that you have quoted:

"Where did you get the idea that I'm asking for odds?"

Surely I didn't concoct the ER bullshit!

Surely I didn't come up with the notion of using ER to
calculate each opponent's odds of winning.

Surely he hasn't heard ELO from me for the first time
and thought I was talking about Electric Light Orchestra.

How sad that just a handful of "professional assholes"
can destroy such a time-tested game, by turning it into
a pure gambling with fanciful theories, arbitrary formulas,
and big claims that you can't even stand behind...! :(

Sad, sad, sad... :((

MK

[michae...@gmail.com]

On Friday, August 12, 2016 at 8:50:36 AM UTC+2, mu...@compuplus.net wrote:
>
>
> But what is my ER suggests I should win 20% and yet
> I end up winning 60%...?

There is only one way to prove your point.
Do play publicly with the bots and publicize your matches. You can do that at FIBS and invite anyone of us to watch. I still have a valid FIBS account and I am willing to watch a series of your matches.
If your average ER suggests you should have won 20% but instead you won 60% or even 40% then we would beleive you.

[Tim Chow]

On Monday, August 15, 2016 at 5:55:49 PM UTC-4, michae...@gmail.com wrote:
> If your average ER suggests you should have won 20% but instead you won 60%
> or even 40% then we would beleive you.

Speak for yourself. :-)

Everybody knows that the ER predictions of winning percentages are hand-waving
estimates that are not worth betting your life on. That's why people are
interested in the first part of Murat's bet (beating the bot) but not the
other part.

---
Tim Chow

[mu...@compuplus.net]

michae...@gmail.com wrote:

mu...@compuplus.net wrote:

>> But what is my ER suggests I should win 20% and yet
>> I end up winning 60%...?

> There is only one way to prove your point.
> Do play publicly with the bots and publicize your
> matches. You can do that at FIBS and invite anyone
> of us to watch. I still have a valid FIBS account
> and I am willing to watch a series of your matches.

It sounds simple but having the right bot and making
sure the dice is random become problems. Chow, Petch
and I discussed this in detail a few years ago and it
got too complicated. In the end we gave up on it.

> If your average ER suggests you should have won 20%
> but instead you won 60% or even 40% then we would
> beleive you.

I was willing to do the experiement without a money
bet but nobody else was. At the same time, nobody is
willing to put money behind the ER fancy... :(

There is hope and faint early signs that ER may get
dumped without a need to prove with a money bet, but
by just people realising it through discussion.

MK

[mu...@compuplus.net]

Tim Chow wrote:

> Everybody knows that the ER predictions of winning
> percentages are hand-waving estimates that are not
> worth betting your life on.

Good to see that at leat you personally are down from
four decimal accuracy to hand-waving estimates... :)

> That's why people are interested in the first part
> of Murat's bet (beating the bot) but not the other
> part.

Yet you all still cling on to something that you can't
bet money on, which is the ultimate test of any claim
in the world of "professional + scientific gambling"! ;)

I think you are showing the simptoms of atheist-priest
syndrome...

I hope you will shake it before long and come over to
my side, to try rescue backgammon from the destruction
of the mentally-ill gamblers. (In case you are also one
yourself, we'll first send you to rehab and then you can
join me..:)

MK

[michae...@gmail.com]

On Thursday, August 18, 2016 at 5:57:50 AM UTC+2, mu...@compuplus.net wrote:
>
>
> I was willing to do the experiement without a money
> bet but nobody else was. At the same time, nobody is
> willing to put money behind the ER fancy... :(
>
>

Like I said I AM interested without a money bet. Just for checking your hypothesis. Like I said many times in this forum I play backgammon ONLY for the excitement of the game, I never play for money, and I participate in these quizes because I find them useful in improving my skill. You keep on calling everyone a "sick gambler" and that's irritating since from what Iknow at least half the participants in here don't play for money.I don't consider paying for the drinks a money bet, people all around the world do that even in Turkey where you originate from.I 've been there a few times in the past and I know.
Gorusuruz ;-)
In case you wouldn't like the results to become public, they will just remain between us the two.

[michae...@gmail.com]

Continued:Of course you may ask why don't I do it myself?
The answer is simple. I already did it at Fibs, and my results -wins vs loses correspond exactly to my overall/average error rate. I play about 6000 games over there this means about 1000 7 pointers. All it's left is for you to get your own proof that your hypothesis is wrong.

[mu...@compuplus.net]

michae...@gmail.com wrote:

> mu...@compuplus.net wrote:

>> I was willing to do the experiement without a money
>> bet but nobody else was. At the same time, nobody is
>> willing to put money behind the ER fancy... :(

> Like I said I AM interested without a money bet. Just
> for checking your hypothesis. Like I said many times
> in this forum I play backgammon ONLY for the excitement
> of the game, I never play for money, and I participate
> in these quizes because I find them useful in improving
> my skill. You keep on calling everyone a "sick gambler"
> and that's irritating since from what Iknow at least
> half the participants in here don't play for money. I
> don't consider paying for the drinks a money bet,
> people all around the world do that even in Turkey

> where you originate from. I 've been there a few times

> in the past and I know.
> Gorusuruz ;-)

Okay, I hear what you are saying and I am willing to
apologize to you and others like you if you would be
willing to mean what you say and perhaps make some
supportive comments about what I am trying to open
to discussion here (that is if you understand it)...

Yes, playing for drinks is for amateurs in Turkey,
professional gamblers among college room mates, for
example, play for much higher stakes like who will
do the dishes... :)

> In case you wouldn't like the results to become public,
> they will just remain between us the two.

Are you kidding, I am doing all I can to attract public
attention to my cause.

Unfortunately, there is not much "public" interest left
in backgammon anymore.

It's just a couple dozen sick gamblers validating one
another, by giving prizes, worthless titles (ala chess,
but based on ER:)) etc.

They basically killed backgammon for general public.

They try to appeal to youngsters but not many parents
would allow their kids get near those mentally ill
hambling scumbugs.

Anybody interested in starting a "Non Gambling Back
Gammon" (NGBG) movement...? I would be glad to help.

MK

[MK]

On Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 1:45:14 AM UTC-6, MK wrote:

> 1- I am not a troll. I am a real person that you call
> can email, call or come meet in Polson, Montana.
>
> 2- I Always wanted to visit Texas.
>
> 3- I Always wanted to visit New England stated during
> the fall foliage.
>
> 4- I love backgammon and would like to see it become
> a more popular and amateurly challenging game (i.e.
> liberated from the destructive influence of mentally
> ill gamblers).
>
> 5- I would love to get any opportunity to play against
> the so-called "giant" human players, for fame and/or
> fortune (per the same propositions below, against bots).
>
> 6- I deem any fraction of my time-limited existance on
> this planet very valuable (if not priceless).
>
> 7- Similarly, I deem everyone else's time proportionately
> valuable.
>
> 8- I wouldn't mind donating some of that precious time of
> mine to the good cause of bettering backgammon.
>
> 9- However, I don't expect the same from others and I
> have no problem with their wanting to get paid for their
> time, as a way of making a living or amassing fortune.
>
> 10- Ideally, I would like to make a trip to Texas or the
> New England states coincide with participating in some
> backgammon events.
>
> 11- I am willing to pay the necessary entry fees, etc.
> in order to enjoy some real life competition (but only
> in events where some so-called "giants" participate,
> even if I am an underdog by far).
>
> 12- During such an event, I also would like to play
> against backers of XGR or Gnubg for money (and fame)
> under mutually accepted, controlled conditions.
>
> 13- I am willing to make a double-edged bet, on the
> one hand a 50-50 bet for $5,000 that I will beat the
> bot, and on the other hand bet $5,000 based on the
> odds to be derived from the bot's rating of my play,
> after the fact. For example, based on my ELO or PR,
> if I had 20% chances of beating the bot, my $5,000
> bet would have to be countered with $20,000 and the
> proceeds disbursed accordingly.
>
> 14- I am not a professional gambler. I don't make a
> living at gambling. I don't even need the money.
>
> 15- But I would love to, oh how I would love to shove
> that "cube skill", "ELO", "PR", "rollouts", etc. up
> some "giant asses"...
>
> 16- So, in short, I am affering you at least $10,000
> which would be totally free money except for a few
> hours of your time, during any widely public event.
>
> 17- Make some proposintion as to where, how, etc. and
> let's make it happen.
>
> MK

Hours after replying to Michael post calling me "Murat
the greatest", I strangely remembered this my old post.

Of course, the one and only greatest was Muhammed Ali
and my calling myself Murat Ali was only in aspiration. ;)

All of my above offers are still valid is anyone would
like to take me up on them.

And I did get visit New England stated during the fall
foliage last October, as a part of 7,500 miles road trip
from Montana to Maine's Atlantic coast, via a northerly
route hugging the Great Lakes and niagara, back via a
more southerly route. It was memorable.

MK