Hit and then...?

[Timothy Chow]

XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dAb--A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

[ah....Clem]

Or just quietly make he bar point and be ahead in the race with both
runners escaped while she still has a checker on the ace point.

I'd expect that to be not much difference equity wise vs hitting and
running either back checker. And the bot play may be to slot the five
point, but I'll just make the defensive bar point here.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

[Timothy Chow]

Congrats to ah_clem for avoiding the trap in the subject line.
Even in the variant below, XG prefers to anchor.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 20/18 eq:+0.301
Player: 57.36% (G:10.84% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 42.64% (G:6.39% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.290..+0.311) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/14 13/11* eq:+0.127 (-0.174)
Player: 53.41% (G:14.63% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 46.59% (G:13.45% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.112..+0.142) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/11* eq:+0.093 (-0.208)
Player: 52.95% (G:13.01% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 47.05% (G:13.47% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.080..+0.106) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a----EBC--aeC---b-dA--bA-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip count X: 151 O: 147 X-O: 0-0

Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 20/18 eq:+0.305
Player: 57.50% (G:12.22% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 42.50% (G:6.46% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.292..+0.318) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/14 13/11* eq:+0.273 (-0.032)
Player: 57.42% (G:15.83% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 42.58% (G:12.94% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.260..+0.287) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow